Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Offseason Plan Comes Into Focus

Don't be fooled by the silence coming from the Jazz this off season. Sometimes it's the biggest news that gets passed through whispers. So what are the Jazz whispering?


1. Lock up Deron Williams - done
2. Prepare for Summer of 2009
3. Sign and Trade for Restricted Free Agent - pending
4. Solidify depth at PG - done

We Jazz fans have been told on many occasions this summer that the Jazz brass have been as active as any team in the free agent market. The difference between Jazz brass and other team's management? Jazz brass keep their workings in house.

The Jazz are at a CRITICAL junction which will decide the future of the franchise. The next two summers could either send the Jazz on their way to Utah's first NBA championship...or could send the Jazz down toward the bottom of the NBA's cellar. DWill is locked in for 4 years, with a player option for a 5th (1 year left on rookie contract in addition to new contract). DWill clearly wanted to see the state of the team after 4 years before committing to anything beyond that. Let's take a look at the Summer of 2009, and what it will likely entail:

Under Contract:
Deron Williams - $17.5 M
Andrei Kirilenko - $15.1 M
Matt Harpring - $6 M
CJ Miles - $3.7 M
Kosta Koufos - $1.8 M

Not Under Contract:
Carlos Boozer - Free Agent-opt out {current = $11.5 M, expected = $17 M}
Mehmet Okur - Free Agent - opt out {current = $8.5 M, expected = $12 M}
Kyle Korver - Free Agent - opt out {current = $5 M, expected = $6 M}
Jarron Collins - Free Agent
Ronnie Price - Free Agent
Brevin Knight - Free Agent
Ronnie Brewer - Eligible for extension {current = $2 M, expected = $6M}
Paul Millsap - Eligible for extension {current = $1 M, expected = $6M}

In order for the Jazz to re-sign the key pieces they currently have, their overall payroll will increase by an expected $19 million (not including luxury tax implications)! That is HUGE for any team, let alone a small market team like the Jazz. Larry Miller has always been willing to open his pockets and pay players, but if he were to open his wallet that much, the team would be in such financial problems, it would be have to be sold or moved to a bigger market.

Needless to say, the Jazz have know what's coming, and have been preparing for that day. Any Free Agent they signed with the MLE this year, would increase that number even more. If Boozer jumps ship and Memo jumps ship, Deron won't be happy with his supporting cast and may opt to leave in 4 years (3 from that point).

So what can the Jazz doing to prepare? The Jazz HAVE to clear some roster space. They can do this by trading for expiring contracts, or for a combination of players, some which may stay on as a piece to the puzzle, some which will expire and come off the books just in time. The Jazz can also trade a young up and coming player in exchange for a future draft pick (knowing the payday that will be necessary next year).

With a maxed out roster, and upcoming financial demands, the Jazz have not pursued any significant Free Agents...word regarding Unrestricted Free Agents usually gets passed around the NBA pretty quick. Now Restricted Free Agents, that's a different story.

Luol Deng for Andrei Kirilenko Rumors:
Not that the Jazz don't have a spot and a need for AK on the team, but when you realize there is only so much money to pass around, Memo and Boozer are simply more valuable than AK. AK makes $15M, and comes off the books in 2 years. There is very little chance AK returns to Utah after this contract. The Jazz may just let his contract run out and see what happens. Or the Jazz could move AK for a cheaper contract combined with expiring contracts. Rumors are floating about the Jazz going after Chicago Restricted Free Agent Luol Deng (SF), who would fit in perfectly with the Jazz. Deng will likely receive around $10M per year, and a second player may need to be included to match salaries. The second player would need to be an expiring contract who could come off the books next season or be bought out of their contract. (Drew Gooden $7M, Tyrus Thomas $4M, Thabo Sefolosha $2M, Cedric Simmons $1.5M) Considering the value of Deng for Kirilenko is pretty much even, the pieces would need to be insignificant players.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I would pull the trigger on this trade yesterday!!! Deng would be a great fit with DWill. Since the Jazz play a team D system, I don't think we'll miss AK's D. Let's hope this happens!

MC Seattle

Travis Smith said...

Brian - just found your blog and I love it. I've lived in Boston for about 10 years and follow the Celtics closely, though as a Utah native the Jazz are my first love. Celticsblog.com is a great blog and I've hoped to find something on the Jazz. Keep writing, your stuff is good and I'll keep coming back!

Travis Smith said...

For the most part I think your salary projections for extensions/new deals look about right, but I do have some thoughts:

- I like what Korver has brought to the team, but I don't see us keeping him if he opts out. Too many at the 3/4 slot.

- Will Brewer/Millsap be restricted FAs after their current contracts are up? If so, I wonder if the Jazz will hold off on extensions for Millsap and Brewer to see what offers come in?

- I think we'll see a big trade in the coming year. AK will be tough to move, so I wonder if it could be for Memo? It seems we could give up what he brings in scoring in exchange for some improved defense at center. If the new C brings a reasonable conract and good (if not stellar) defense, this could be a big help on the salary issues. Examples of this idea might be Jeff Foster or Brendan Haywood.

Arnold Babar said...

The rumors on the Deng deal are likely true. The holdup there is in Chicago. With the Addition of Rose, the Bulls are also exploring opportunities to ship Ben Gordon and/or Kirk Heinrich. I'm sure they're looking to get some real help inside. Also, they just locked up Andres Nocioni, so they're also listening to offers for Deng (like the Jazz). I'm sure Chicago will analyze every trade for all three of those players, and when they find the best deal, I'm sure they'll pull the trigger. To their credit, they're playing the trade game very methodically, and it'll come down to whether or not AK is the best big offered to them (PF). I expect better offers to come with teams hoping to land Heinrich and Thomas or Noah.

As for Korver, he adds an extra element. Unlike many that follow the Jazz, I'm not too worried about the log jam at 2/3. AK is likely gone in the next two years, and Harpring's knees will likely fail him within the next year or two. Korver would be an excellent replacement for Matt Harpring's role as a scorer off the bench. If If you factor out Harpring and AK, the Jazz have Brewer, Korver, and Miles that all can play either SG and SF. I think Korver and Miles are better defensively to play the SF. Shift 1 or 2 of these guys to SF, and there may be a spot for Almond in the Jazz rotation long-term, although he likely won't be around long enough to see that come to fruition.

The key with the logjam is this: keep any and all of the SGs and SFs you can for a reasonable price, but not at the expense of Boozer or Memo.

-In regards to a big trade...it's as likely as it will ever be for the Jazz. Just remember, the Jazz have NEVER pulled a huge trade as far as I can remember. The closest thing to a blockbuster would be the Hornacek trade, or the trade that brought Donyell Marshall to Utah (the number of teams and players involved was unbelievable).

Arnold Babar said...

*UPDATE - Deng has reached an agreement with the Bulls worth $71M over 6 years (nearly $12M per year).

This will likely delay any talks regarding a Bulls move of Deng. Their focus looks to have shifted toward Heinrich and Gordon.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3510232