Free Agents? Trades?

Before I get into possible roster moves for the Jazz, I've got to cover the current roster situation of the Jazz.
Current Roster: $64.3M (Cap = $59M)

Deron Williams - $5M (1 yr, likely a 4 yr $70M deal to come soon)
Andrei Kirilenko - $15.1M (3 yrs)
Carlos Boozer - $11.6M (likely to opt out after next season)
Mehmet Okur - $9M (2 yrs)
Matt Harpring - $6M (2 yrs)
Kyle Korver - $4.9M (2 yrs)
Jason Hart - $2.5M (1 yr)
Jarron Collins - $2.1M (1 yr)
Ronnie Brewer - $1,8M (1 yr, team option for 2nd)
CJ Miles - Qualifying offer likely around $1.5M (1 yr)
Ronnie Price - $1.2M (1 yr)
Kosta Koufus - likely around $1.2M (2 yrs, team option for 3rd)
Morris Almond - $1.1M (1 yr, team option for 2nd year)
Kyrylo Fesenko - $810K (1 yr, team option for 2nd)
Paul Millsap - $800K (1 yr)

The Jazz currently have 14 players under contract for next season, with #15 being CJ Miles. The NBA mandates that teams cannot have over 15 players on their roster once the season begins. Considering the Jazz still have their full MLE to use if they choose, that makes 16 players under contract.

The Jazz have always been fairly conservative in their utilization of their roster. They like to keep 14 players on roster (with 1 spot open for midseason flexibility/trades in the event they needed to make a move). The Jazz are also currently about $5M over the salary cap, which means they'll pay about that much in fines to the league. This is not the type of situation the Jazz typically like to be in, but if that's what they have to do to give themselves the best chance to win, Larry Miller has always been willing to spend extra. If the Jazz use their full MLE (up to $6M/year), that would put them $11M over the cap, paying an additional $11M to the league in fines.

Knowing the situation the Jazz face (luxury tax and roster space), here are some possible scenarios we may see from the Jazz this offseason:

1. Don't expect the Jazz to use their full MLE on a free agent this offseason. If the Jazz do sign a free agent, it is much more likely to use a portion of their MLE ($2-$3M) to get their guy.
2. Sign-and-Trade - The Jazz have openly admitted to exploring sign-and-trade options. This would allow the Jazz to go after higher quality free agents (if they have their eye on someone, restricted or unrestricted) without having immediate money open and available for use.
3. Packaging prospects for an upgrade. The Jazz have loads of depth on their roster, more than they can use. We all know about the log-jam at the SG position, and now we're getting a nice crop of prospects at Center also. Package young prospects with veteran contracts and the Jazz could get a nice piece in return.
4. Don't expect the Jazz to move Boozer. People bash Boozer for his move out of Cleveland. What people fail to mention is how the Cavaliers first tried to convince Boozer to sign for well below market value. Once Boozer was on the market (verbal agreement or not), he found out they were shorting him millions of dollars. Then, the Cavs had every chance to sign him for market value and they chose not to. How would you feel as an employee if your employer tried to convince you that you were only worth $50K/year, then when you hit the market you had multiple offers near $100K/year, and your boss refused to match any of them? Even thought the dollar amounts are greater in Boozer's case, the concept is the same. He came to Utah because they genuinely showed interest in him at fair market price, while Cleveland had slapped him in the face. It's a certainty that Boozer will opt out of his contract next season (not because he wants out, but because he can get a 70% pay raise). It is highly unlikely he will bolt for greener pastures when in reality the pastures are more of a yellowish-brown. The Jazz maintain the sole capability to pay Boozer the most money, and he will find nowhere as capable of winning an NBA championship than Utah.
5. Last and MOST IMPORTANT, don't expect the Jazz to make a move simply for the sake of making a move. The Jazz preach team basketball, and with a team full of young players still on the upswing, the longer these players can play together, the better the team will be as a whole. Changing pieces only delays this process.

Using those 5 pieces of criteria, let's take a look at what the Jazz might look to accomplish via free agency and trade. (In no particular order)

FREE AGENTS TO WATCH:

- Keyon Dooling (PG) - The Jazz are frequently mentioned in the same sentence as Dooling. Dooling is about 6'3 which gives him the length to be a bigger PG in the NBA. Last season the Jazz were below average at backup PG. With PG being the most important position in the Jazz system, the offense often came to a screeching halt when DWill exited the game. Now I love Ronnie Price's effort and defense as much as the next man, but his 1 moment of greatness over 5 plays makes many fans forget about the 4 poor possessions he just had. Backup PG is an immediate issue that must be addressed for the Jazz to win a championship. Dooling controls the ball well (nearly 2.5/1 assist-to-turnover ratio), and shoots a good percentage from everywhere on the floor (FG=47%, 3PT=34%). He has enough length to be a factor on defense also. He has played a little combo guard in the past, but would be unlikely to warrant many minutes ahead of our current SGs. Dooling might be had at about half of the MLE ($3-$4M/year).

- Kwame Brown (C) - If Brown goes 10 picks lower in the NBA draft at #11, his entire career could be different. The pressure and expectations of being a #1 overall pick weighed heavily on Brown early in his career. While playing for the Lakers, Brown found a significant role and performed well at times. Though questionable as a starter, Brown would be excellent as a backup. He was used as the primary piece for the Lakers to get Pau Gasol. Brown is a legitimate 7 footer with awesome length and good athleticism. Brown is a phenomenal rebounder averaging nearly 1 rebound for every 3 minutes on the floor. That number is right in the same ballpark as Tim Duncan, Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett. Offensively Brown lives around the basket getting most of his points on put backs and dunks. Brown is also one of the worst free throw shooters in the league shooting nearly 40% from the line. His FT% has dropped almost every year in the league which may be worrisome. I believe Brown could step into the backup center position for the Jazz and average 4 ppg, 4rpg, and 1bpg in about 12-15 mins. Brown may be had in the upper range of the MLE ($4-$5M/year) but is not worth the full MLE.

- Eduardo Najera (F) - Najera is annoying as hell to play against, but he would be great to have on your team. He plays extremely hard and extremely physical. He rebounds well and is an extraordinary defender. He's happy with any role as long as the team wins. He can come off the bench and instantly guard the other team's best player at any 1 of 3 positions. Considering the current status of defense of our bench (Harpring next to Korver) Najera would instantly have a role as a Sloan favorite off the bench. Offensively Najera is limited yet efficient. The best part about Najera is that no matter when you need him to enter a game, you can count on him to play hard and play within the system. Najera could be had in the middle range of the MLE ($3-$4M/year).


PLAYERS THAT MAY BE ON THE WAY OUT:

- CJ Miles - Jazz fans have seen flashes of brilliance from Miles (Coaches more than fans) enough to keep him around year after year, waiting on him to develop. He is still the youngest of all Jazz SG's, and has as much athleticism as any. Miles can fly athletically (sometimes he gets ripped for being a 2-footed jumper, but in the rare occasions where Miles attacks the hoop, he looks to dunk, and he goes off 1 foot). Miles is finally ready for a role as a regular rotation player in the NBA. Miles has been valuable to the Jazz with his versatility as he has been able to step in for an injured player at both SG and SF, filling whatever role necessary to keep the rotation constant (starter, backup, etc.). Miles will look for an opportunity to showcase his ability and land a bigger contract in future years.

- Matt Harpring - If it were up to Jerry Sloan, Harpring would be a Jazz man the rest of his life. However, Harpring's best years are behind him, and he may have his best trade value that he has ever had in the coming season or the one following. Harpring brings an element of toughness and physicality that was badly missed after the departure of Derek Fisher. Offensively he lives at the elbow, and was very ineffective. Once the playoffs began, opponents took away his 1 weapon (the fall-away jumper from the elbow) and Harpring instantly became very ineffective on offense. The time may be right to package Harpring's contract with a young prospect in order to upgrade.

- Paul Millsap - I hate to say this as I love Millsap as a player, but he may be the only player on the Jazz that might warrant a big-time contributor in return, and not completely ruin the chemistry of the team. With Boozer, Kirilenko and Okur all capable of playing SF, Millsap's minutes could be absorbed with minimal loss in stats (his hustle may be irreplaceable). The Jazz may be unable to pay him enough to keep him around next season also. If the Jazz could get a premiere defensive big man to come off the bench, Millsap might have to be the piece included to make the deal happen. I sure hope Millsap stays in Utah. He may be kept as an insurance to Boozer. If he could learn to play some SF, it could really help his long-term status on the team.

- Jason Hart - The Jazz may simply buy out Hart's contract. The only factor keeping Hart in Utah is the fact that the Jazz like to keep 3 PGs on their roster. If the Jazz sign Dooling, kiss Hart goodbye. Hart picked up his player option for this season at $2.5M. The Jazz may be able to buy him out for about $1.5M, which would save the jazz $1M in wasted salary, and another $2.5M in salary cap space. The real price of keeping Hart would be about $5M next year when salary cap is included. That's a lot for a got who's not expected to touch the floor. If the Jazz can possibly move him, they will. If not, they wasted $5M.

- Dee Brown - The guy that couldn't make an NBA roster last season and played in Europe? Yep, that's the guy. The I'm sure you're wondering what the heck I'm talking about...Dee Brown? The Jazz actually still own partial rights to Dee Brown and he just signed a restricted 2-year contract with the Washington Wizards. Don't be surprised if the Jazz swoop in and capitalize on the interest with a sign-and-trade type deal including Brown. The Jazz have been rumored to be interested in Brendan Haywood, but Etan Thomas is likely the more available. Both are defensive centers who could contribute off the bench. Haywood is much longer and more athletic. Thomas is coming off of heart problems and could be had for a low price...as low as Brown? Possible deals could include Dee Brown, Jason Hart and a 2nd round pick for Etan Thomas or Dee Brown and CJ Miles for a future first round (protected) pick. If the Jazz were to make a run at Haywood, it would have to include a bigger piece, perhaps something like Brown, Hart and Millsap for Haywood and a future pick. Jarron Collins could be thrown into any of these deals to make the money work. Either Thomas or Haywood would greatly help the interior defense of the Jazz, and the timing may be perfect for a swap.

It should be an interesting couple of weeks leading up to the Olympics. DWill should be signed to a long-term deal. The Rocky Mountain Revue will give us a good idea whether or not Morris Almond is in the long-term plans of the Jazz, and I expect at least 1 new face to be added to the Jazz roster. Should be fun!