Summer of 2010 - DANGER! STAY AWAY!

The Summer of 2010 will be the most anticipated free agency period in the history of the NBA. Superstars like LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire, and Carlos Boozer are among the summer’s premier players available. Anticipating the possibility of adding an Elite level player, it seems half of the league has cleared enough space to at least make a run at one or more of these players. More teams are also expected to clear space before the free agency period by releasing players, buying out contracts, and completing draft day trades (player for pick). The Draft is held in June, Free Agency opens in July.

Here is a list of teams who have made themselves players in the sweepstakes:

Room for 2 max players:
Miami Heat
New York Knicks

Room for 1 max player:
New Jersey Nets
Chicago Bulls
Washington Wizards
Sacramento Kings
Los Angeles Clippers
Minnesota Timberwolves

Everything seems to be lining up for some teams to cash in on premiere talent that isn’t normally available via free agency right? WRONG! In reality, 2 or 3 teams MIGHT cash in and score big. The rest of the teams mentioned above will be in scramble mode. I believe the exact opposite of many of the General Managers in the NBA. I would absolutely avoiding this summer’s free agent market. Here’s why:

1. Overpaying to fill a roster
Let me throw the following scenario out on the table:
- LeBron James wins an NBA championship in Cleveland, and re-signs with the Cavs
- Dwayne Wade re-signs with the Heat
- Chris Bosh signs with the Miami Heat

Under this scenario there would be 8 teams remaining with max money to spend on non-max free agents. In 2009, Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and other cashed in on a very poor free agent market when they were deemed (the best players available). Ask Detroit how this has worked out for them.

2. Restricted Free Agents
I’m going to take my scenario one step further now. Everything above has taken place, along with the next signings:
- Amare Stoudemire signs with the New York Knicks
- Carlos Boozer signs with the Chicago Bulls
- Joe Johnson resigns with the Atlanta Hawks

Now there are 7 teams still left with max money to spend, without any max quality players left. I think it is safe to assume that nobody is going to give David Lee max money just because they can, but when teams clean house to make themselves players in this market, there is a sense of obligation to use that cap space on the best players available. Take for example Rudy Gay and Luis Scola. Both are very good players, and may be considered among the best remaining players available. Both however are restricted free agents in 2010. Would the Clippers offer Rudy Gay $13M a year to fill their need for a SF? They overpaid for Baron Davis. Would New Jersey pay Louis Scola $14M a year because they are the worst team in the history of the NBA and can’t do nothing?

I predict a bidding war over these second and third tier players…especially with the Restricted Free Agents. Watch for teams to make horrid offers out of desperation for guys like Rudy Gay, Luis Scola, etc. (see Washington, New York, and New Jersey)

3. Collective Bargaining Agreement
Adding more fuel to the fire. Max contract amounts are sure to come down with this next collective bargaining agreement, and duration will shorten as well. What that means is that players like Rudy Gay, Luis Scola, David Lee (the overpaid from 2010 FAs) will be on a similar pay scale to teams with cap space in 2-3 years. Let’s say the Nuggets re-sign Carmelo Anthony in 2011 for the new max contract at $15 (the same salary that Rudy Gay ends up at with the Clippers). The Clippers will be trying to play on the same playing field as the Nuggets, with their new highest paid players being paid the same amount (Anthony and Gay). Under this scenario, the Clippers would be in the cellar for another 10 years before they get another chance to get out.


In conclusion, I predict the summer of 2010 to be the defining summer of the next decade. Whoever lands LeBron will be a big winner, and if Miami can lure another max quality player to pair with DWade, they will be a big winner. The rest will lose out big time over the next decade.

Rather than investing in the 2010 sweepstakes, teams should be investing in future drafts (cheap talent will be a necessity under the new CBA). Teams with max space available, and no real shot at Wade or LeBron should pull out of the sweepstakes by signing 1 or 2 year contracts, and tackle the beast in a 2013 under a much friendlier collective bargaining agreement…Which I want to add, positions the Jazz perfectly for the next decade.