The Olympic Effect

Nationwide, eyes have been glued to the TV screen to watch Olympians wow the world with impressive accomplishments of strength, speed and athleticism. It's not often viewers get to see all of these attributes in the same event. That's exactly what worldwide fans have been privy to watch this year from Beijing.

LeBron James and Kobe Bryant headline the USA's Olympic squad. If it weren't for the awe-inspiring performance of the Americans, many fans would be pleasantly watching some of the elite athletes the world has to offer. Unfortunately for world basketball, stars like Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Andrei Kirilenko and Yao Ming all have been left in the wake of the mighty US basketball team.

Many Jazz fans have watched anxiously as Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams represent the only NBA franchise with two players on the US roster. But should they be concerned?

Carlos Boozer has never been known for his durability and Deron Williams enjoys playing at the rim...will the physical international nature of basketball pay its toll on these Jazz superstars? Don't forget Andrei Kirilenko. Expectations have never been higher for a European basketball star. After leading Russia to an unexpected title in the 2007 Eurobasket, will Kirilenko be able to lead his Russians to glory once again?

Personally, I have watched every US game (including exhibition games) since the team was formed once again this summer. For a while I was on board the US team to see if "redemption" was a possibility or a probability. Nowadays, I find myself more interested in watching how Boozer, Williams and Kirilenko fair against the world's elite.

As a die-hard Jazz fan, my hope is that DWill, Boozer and AK will shine on the international level and perhaps draw some attention to what looks to be a promising 2008-09 season. But what can Jazz fans expect from our Olympians as they return home?

THE TRANSITION TO 82+ GAMES:

The question many Jazz fans share is simple: How will the play of Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko transfer to an 82+ game NBA season?

For a glimpse into the future, let's take a look at the past:

USA OLYMPIANS:

Statistically, there is a significant impact NBA players face after returning from the Olympic Games. After the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens, NBA players from the US returned home better players.

Before the Olympics, the 2004 team averaged 19.75 points per game (as individuals). The average winning percentage for the NBA Teams on which these players played was .467 (record of about 38-44). Fans also wonder about durability concerns when their favorite players spend their summers playing in the Olympics rather than resting injuries preparing for the season. To measure this number, we'll compare games played in the 03-04 season versus the number of games played in 04-05 season. In 03-04, the US Olympians averaged 67.6 games played per season.

After the Olympics, those same US players returned to the NBA to average 22.31 points per game (up 2.55 points per game). 8 of the 11 players increased their points per game average upon their return from the Olympics. US players also saw an improvement in their team's performance as the average winning percentage of Jazz teams increased to .594 (record of about 48-34). 8 of 10 teams with US Olympians improved their winning percentage. Durability was basically a wash, as averaged games played decreased by 1.55 games to 66.09.

INTERNATIONAL NBA OLYMPIANS:

Before the 2004 Olympics, International NBA Olympians averaged 11.71 points per game. The average winning percentage of International NBA Olympians' NBA teams was .571 (record of about 47-35). The average games played in 2003-04 for International NBA Olympians was 77.61 games per season.

After the 2004 Olympics in Athens, International NBA Olympians saw little change in their scoring average (average increased to 12.06, up 0.34 points). International NBA Olympians did not see a similar increase in their NBA team's winning percentage. The average win percentage for International NBA Olympians didn't change significantly (down .005). The biggest change for International Olympians came in the durability department. The average games played for International Olympians decreased to 64.14 games (decrease of 12.57 games). This is a very significant drop in games played.

The biggest reason for this decrease may be due to how many minutes these players were playing. International teams do not have the depth to rotate frequently like the US. Andrei Kirilenko averaged 36 minutes per game for Russia in the Olympics. Considering there are only 40 minutes in a game that is a lot to ask of a player...especially when they have 82+ games still to play. To give those minutes/game perspective, AK averaged 30 minutes per game in the NBA out of 48 minutes.

THE GOOD NEWS: We can expect good things from DWill and Boozer in the coming season. Also, Mehmet Okur took the summer off to prepare for the coming contract season.

THE BAD NEWS: Kirilenko is playing a lot of minutes, and playing poorly.

Front Court Statistics

In an interview shortly after being released from the hospital, Larry Miller expressed his concern for the summer of 2010 (after this coming season).

"Next summer will be one of the most important summers in our history."

Miller state that he is very worried about the "big challenge" coming next off-season. Three of the Jazz's top players — Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver — are likely to become free agents, with Paul Millsap available for contract extension. Failure to extend Millsap's contract would result in Millsap becoming a free agent the following summer. Ronnie Price, Jarron Collins, and Brevin Knight will all be free agents as well.

"We're going to have to make some very, very tough decisions next year," Miller said. "I do not intend us to be a luxury-tax payer, but only because we have to have an economically stable franchise regardless of anything else."

In light of Miller's recent comments, and following up on our recent discussions of Paul Millsap vs. Carlos Boozer, our blogger staff has compiled some simple NBA statistics for comparison of the Jazz frontcourt trio.

All statistics compare players at the same stage of their career (rather than current head-to-head).

12 Questions to Think About (Milsap vs. Boozer)

12 Questions to Think About: Feel free to share your thoughts with the rest of us by commenting or send us an email at thesaltpalace@blogspot.com.

*There are comparitive statistics available for reference in the previous article posted.

1: In order to win an NBA championship, which attributes of a PF do you think are most important to a team?

2: Can the Jazz win an NBA championship with Carlos Boozer as their primary PF?

3: Can the Jazz win an NBA championship with Paul Millsap as their primary PF?

Info: Since the 1998-99 season, every NBA champion has had an interior player average over 17 points per game as an all-star (Boston = Garnett, Miami = Shaq, Detroit = Wallace, San Antonio = Duncan, LA = Shaq).

4: In your opinion, what are the biggest benefits of having a low-post scorer on your team?

5: Is it necessary to have a low-post scorer on your team? Why?

6: If you have a player(s) that can attack the basket off the dribble, can this make up for the lack of a true low-post scorer?

7: Does this change your opinion on whether or not the Jazz can win an NBA championship with Carlos Boozer as their primary PF?

8: Does this change your opinion on whether or not the Jazz can win an NBA championship with Paul Millsap as their primary PF?

Info: The Chicago Bulls were the most dominant team in the NBA for nearly a decade. For most of those years and Championships, the Bulls relied heavily on Dennis Rodman and Luc Longley in their front-court. Rodman averaged 5.5 ppg, 5.7 ppg, and 4.7 ppg to go along with 14.9 rpg, 16.1 rpg, and 15.0 rpg in his years with the Bulls. Luc Longley averaged 9.1 ppg, 9.1 ppg, and 11.4 ppg to go along with 5.1 rpg, 5.6 rpg, and 5.9 rpg in the same years with the Bulls. Longly failed miserably with every other team he played with after the Bulls.

9: How were the Bulls were able to win so many games (and championships) without a true low-post scorer?

10: Besides Michael Jordan, what does a team need in order to win an NBA championship without a true low-post scorer?

11: Does this change your opinion on whether or not the Jazz can win an NBA championship with Carlos Boozer as their primary PF?

12: Does this change your opinion on whether or not the Jazz can win an NBA championship with Paul Millsap as their primary PF?

*There are comparitive statistics available for reference in the previous article posted.

12 Questions to Think About: Feel free to share your thoughts with the rest of us by commenting or send us an email at thesaltpalace@blogspot.com.

Paul Millsap vs Carlos Boozer

VS

Utah Jazz management is stuck between a rock and a hard place when deciding which direction to steer the franchise in coming years.

Rock = Carlos Boozer
Hard Place = Paul Millsap

Both players have significant upside, however there may not be room for both in the long-term future of the Jazz.

Don't expect the Jazz to move either player this season. The Jazz have got to feel comfortable with their current three-headed monster (Boozer, Okur, and Millsap). All three player are interchangeable in the front-court (any two can play together at one time). Between the three players, there are not many minutes left over.

07-08 Season Averages:
Carlos Boozer = 35 minutes/game
Mehmet Okur = 33 minutes/game
Paul Millsap = 17.5 minutes/game
Left Overs = 10.5 minutes/game

What's the concern?
Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur both have opt-out clauses in their contracts. An opt-out clause provides one party the right to terminate a contract early, or extend the contract for an additional year at the current rate. In this case, both Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer will have the chance to test their value on the free agency market. Based on performance/production, both players can demand significantly higher value on the open market.

Paul Millsap is in a slightly different situation. Paul still makes near the league minimum (his rookie contract as a second round pick). Just as Deron Williams recently signed a large contract extension, the Jazz will have the opportunity to offer Paul Millsap a contract extension. Millsap's rookie contract will continue through the following season, after which the newly negotiated contract will take place. It is quite possible that Paul Millsap will earn the highest pay raise of the three players come time for re-negotiation.

Current Salary -- Expected Salary
Carlos Boozer: $11.6M -- $15M to $17M
Mehmet Okur: $8.5M -- $10M to $12M
Paul Millsap: $800K -- $6M

What to do?
That is the question the Jazz face. Based upon value and durability, it is highly unlikely the Jazz will pass on Mehmet Okur. That leaves us with Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap. Carlos will likely demand a maximum contract from the Jazz, while Paul Millsap will likely be interested in more playing time.

To Be Continued...


*Panel of Fans Needed:
The Salt Palace Blogger Staff would like to form a one-time panel of Jazz fans to discuss this topic of Paul Millsap vs Carlos Boozer. If you are interested in participating in this one-time panel, send us an email at thesaltpalace@gmail.com. Please include your name, location, and email address to where we can send some questions. We will NOT use or sell your information for spamming or advertising.

Would You Make These Trades?

The Utah Jazz have historically been a quiet yet active front office when it came down to trades. In the spirit of summer, and for purpose of discussion only, our blogger-staff has come up with three potential roster moves the Jazz "could" make this off-season. Jazz fans have thoroughly discussed the options of dealing for Omeka Okafor, Luol Deng, etc. For the sake of this discussion, as far as our blogger-staff knows, none of these trades have surfaced for discussion.

Would you do this deal?

1. Chicago Blockbuster

Jazz send:
Carlos Boozer - PF
Morris Almond - SG

Bulls send:
Kirk Hinrich - G
Tyrus Thomas - PF

Adjusted Jazz Depth Chart:
PG - Deron Williams - Brevin Knight - Ronnie Price
SG - Kirk Hinrich - Kyle Korver - CJ Miles
SF - Ronnie Brewer - Matt Harpring
PF - Andrei Kirilenko - Paul Millsap
C -Mehmet Okur - Tyrus Thomas - Jarron Collins

Adjusted Bulls Depth Chart:
PG - Derrick Rose - Ben Gordon
SG - Ben Gordon - Larry Hughes - Thabo Sefolosha
SF - Luol Deng - Andres Nocioni
PF - Carlos Boozer - Joakim Noah
C - Drew Gooden - Cedric Simmons
Positives/Negatives for Jazz: + Defense: Boozer ranks in the 5th percentile defensively, while Hinrich ranks in the 63rd percentile)
+ Perimeter Shooting: Hinrich shoots 38% from beyond the arc for his career
+ Ball Handling: Hinrich averaged 6 apg last season to only 2 turnovers per game.
+ Roster Flexibility: The Jazz save money over the long haul.
- Interior Offense: Boozer accounted for about 15 ppg inside the painted area.
- Rebounding: While Thomas and Millsap can pull down rebounds in bulk, Boozer leaves a void that will be tough to fill.
- Big for Small: As a rule of thumb, teams should never trade a big man for a perimeter player (PG excluded)

Would you do this deal?

2. Shooting Stars

Jazz Send:
Andrei Kirilenko
Kyle Korver
Jarron Collins
Future First Round Pick (protected)

Bucks Send:
Michael Redd
Dan Gadzuric

Jazz Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Deron Williams - Brevin Knight - Ronnie Price
SG - Michael Redd - CJ Miles - Morris Almond
SF - Ronnie Brewer - Matt Harpring
PF - Carlos Boozer - Paul Millsap
C -Mehmet Okur - Dan Gadzuric

Bucks Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Mo Williams - Charlie Bell
SG - Kyle Korver - Desmond Mason
SF - Richard Jefferson - Joe Alexander
PF - Andrei Kirilenko - Charlie Villanueva
C - Andrew Bogut - Jarron Collins

Positives/Negatives for Jazz:
+ Weapons: Add an all-star caliber shooting guard in Redd (22.7 ppg)
+ Outside Shooting: Although Korver is a great outside shooter, Redd is a significant upgrade
+ Unload Kirilenko: AK's trade value may be the highest it will be in years to come (Olympic standout), and through this trade the Jazz get rid of him
+ Depth at Center: Gadzuric will give you his best effort, and he's 7 feet.
- Defensive downgrade: Redd is a below average defender, without much help on the inside.
- Shot Blocking: The Jazz lose their only real shot blocker in Kirilenko

Would you do this deal?

3. Cooler Heads Prevail

Jazz Send:
Matt Harpring
Kyle Korver
Kyrylo Fesenko
Ante Tomic (Rights to)

Pistons Send:
Rasheed Wallace

Jazz Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Deron Williams - Brevin Knight - Ronnie Price
SG - Ronnie Brewer - CJ Miles - Morris Almond
SF - Andre Kirilenko - CJ Miles
PF - Carlos Boozer - Paul Millsap
C -Mehmet Okur - Rasheed Wallace

Pistons Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Chauncey Billups - Rodney Stuckey
SG - Rip Hamilton - Kyle Korver
SF - Tayshawn Prince - Matt Harpring
PF - Jason Maxiell
C - Antonio McDyess - Kwame Brown

Positives/Negatives for Jazz:
+ Winning Mentality: There's little coincidence the Blazers fell apart after Rasheed left for Detroit.
+ Interior Defense: Despite getting older, Rasheed is a very good defensive player
+/- Bench Production: Wallace is one of the best scoring bigs in the NBA, although the Jazz give up their current bench in Harpring and Korver.
+/- Future Flexibility: Wallace has a huge yet expiring contract. Korver will likely opt out next season, and Harpring's knees are all but done.
- Mental Stability: Rasheed leads the NBA in technical fouls every year.
- Sloan's Respons: Jerry Sloan and Rasheed Wallace we be nose to nose about every other game.

Would you do this deal?

4. The Missing Piece

Jazz Send: (to a 3rd party team)
Andrei Kirilenko

Rockets Send: (to Utah)
Shane Battier
Bobby Jackson

Jazz Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Deron Williams - Brevin Knight - Ronnie Price
SG - Ronnie Brewer - Kyle Korver - Morris Almond
SF - Shane Battier - CJ Miles
PF - Carlos Boozer - Paul Millsap
C -Mehmet Okur - Jarron Collins

*This trade would likely only occur with a 3rd party team to receive Kirilenko, and send additional players to the Rockets.

Positives/Negatives for Jazz:
+/- Team defense: AK and Battier are both excellent defenders who can guard 3 positions
+ Outside Shooting: Battier shot 39% from behind the arc last season which is an upgrade over Kirilenko's 31% career average.
+ Mental Toughness: Battier is one of the toughest players in the NBA, meanwhile AK cried during the playoffs.
+ Value: Battier comes at a much cheaper price with arguably greater production. Jackson's contract expires at the end of the year, freeing up money to sign Boozer
- Shot Blocking: The Jazz once again lose their only real shot blocking presence.

Would you pull the trigger on any of these moves? Would the opposing team? We'd love to hear your thoughts.

If you have any ideas for 3rd party teams in the Houston Deal (or any other trade ideas), go ahead and post them in the comments.