LeBron James and Kobe Bryant headline the USA's Olympic squad. If it weren't for the awe-inspiring performance of the Americans, many fans would be pleasantly watching some of the elite athletes the world has to offer. Unfortunately for world basketball, stars like Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Andrei Kirilenko and Yao Ming all have been left in the wake of the mighty US basketball team.Carlos Boozer has never been known for his durability and Deron Williams enjoys playing at the rim...will the physical international nature of basketball pay its toll on these Jazz superstars? Don't forget Andrei Kirilenko. Expectations have never been higher for a European basketball star. After leading Russia to an unexpected title in the 2007 Eurobasket, will Kirilenko be able to lead his Russians to glory once again?
USA OLYMPIANS:
Statistically, there is a significant impact NBA players face after returning from the Olympic Games. After the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens, NBA players from the US returned home better players.
Before the Olympics, the 2004 team averaged 19.75 points per game (as individuals). The average winning percentage for the NBA Teams on which these players played was .467 (record of about 38-44). Fans also wonder about durability concerns when their favorite players spend their summers playing in the Olympics rather than resting injuries preparing for the season. To measure this number, we'll compare games played in the 03-04 season versus the number of games played in 04-05 season. In 03-04, the US Olympians averaged 67.6 games played per season.
After the Olympics, those same US players returned to the NBA to average 22.31 points per game (up 2.55 points per game). 8 of the 11 players increased their points per game average upon their return from the Olympics. US players also saw an improvement in their team's performance as the average winning percentage of Jazz teams increased to .594 (record of about 48-34). 8 of 10 teams with US Olympians improved their winning percentage. Durability was basically a wash, as averaged games played decreased by 1.55 games to 66.09.
INTERNATIONAL NBA OLYMPIANS:
Before the 2004 Olympics, International NBA Olympians averaged 11.71 points per game. The average winning percentage of International NBA Olympians' NBA teams was .571 (record of about 47-35). The average games played in 2003-04 for International NBA Olympians was 77.61 games per season.
After the 2004 Olympics in Athens, International NBA Olympians saw little change in their scoring average (average increased to 12.06, up 0.34 points). International NBA Olympians did not see a similar increase in their NBA team's winning percentage. The average win percentage for International NBA Olympians didn't change significantly (down .005). The biggest change for International Olympians came in the durability department. The average games played for International Olympians decreased to 64.14 games (decrease of 12.57 games). This is a very significant drop in games played.
The biggest reason for this decrease may be due to how many minutes these players were playing. International teams do not have the depth to rotate frequently like the US. Andrei Kirilenko averaged 36 minutes per game for Russia in the Olympics. Considering there are only 40 minutes in a game that is a lot to ask of a player...especially when they have 82+ games still to play. To give those minutes/game perspective, AK averaged 30 minutes per game in the NBA out of 48 minutes.
THE GOOD NEWS: We can expect good things from DWill and Boozer in the coming season. Also, Mehmet Okur took the summer off to prepare for the coming contract season.
THE BAD NEWS: Kirilenko is playing a lot of minutes, and playing poorly.
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6 comments:
I wouldn't say AK is playing poorly. His last two games were bad shooting wise, but he was playing really well before that. And we should all know by now there's alot more to AK than just shooting percentage.
If AK could just be satisfied with being a role player he'd be okay. The main problem is the Jazz aren't paying him as if he's a role player, they're paying him as if he were a Super Star.
I agree that AK's performance on the National Stage has been EXTREMELY poor and discouraging for a Jazz fan. Earlier in his career he dominated in this type of game, but that dominance has been gone during these games.
-SS
Euros are weak (well, the currency the Euro itself is strong vs. the dollar right now but that is another story). Give me a kid that grew up playing ball on the playground from sun up to sun down, or who shoveled the snow off his dirt driveway in nowheresville Indiana to shoot his 1000 shots before the bus arrived, over a European who practiced under the tutelage of some has been Euro-trash star from the 70s in an all sports school system any day. The US kids are used to playing a bazillion games every summer. The NBA aged players now grew up playing more games in the summer than they did during the season - and against better competition.
Athens may not be the best comparison as the US didn't exactly "play hard" -- coasting comes to mind.
Personally - I am not worried if AK does not play all 82. Maybe it will keep him from melting down when he isn't the focal point of the offense.
One more thing -- is anyone else suprised that Melo hasn't cause some sort of international incident during the games? Maybe the Olympic village has a bit more liberal rules when it comes to the plants of the earth. Puff Puff give give - come on Melo your messing up the rotation. I hate the Nuggets.
OK one last question --
How did the Mailman and Stockton do in the years following the Olympics?
Was there any drop off in performance the second half of the season or the playoffs?
My guess is that the correlation of those players that played poorly following a tough Olympics run is highly statistically significant to the brain power of their NBA coach. Sloan knows how to pace players throughout a season.
after 1992 Malone came back to average 27 points and 11 boards, which was better than the previous 3 seasons. In 96 Malone came back again improving his prior season average to 27 points and 10 boards.
Stock came back from the 92 games to average a career high in assists.
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