1998 Jazz vs. 2008 Jazz

VS

Training camp opens in about 2 weeks. We'll be releasing a series of season previews here pretty soon, but in the meantime, we'll continue into the realm of the hypothetical. This week's topic - the 1997-98 Utah Jazz vs. the 2007-08 Utah Jazz, particularly the following areas:

1. How the 1998 Jazz would fare in the 2008 NBA.
2. How the 2008 Jazz would fare in the 1998 NBA.
3. What the outcome would be of a Western Conference Finals Series between the two teams.

Let's take a look at our rosters and rotations:

1998 Utah Jazz
Starters:
PG - John Stockton - 12 ppg, 8 apg, 1.4 spg, 2.5 TO, 53% FG, 43% 3PT, 29 MIN
SG - Jeff Hornacek - 14.2 ppg, 4.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 48% FG, 44% 3PT
SF - Bryon Russell - 9 ppg, 3 rpg, 1.1 spg, 43% FG, 34% 3PT
PF - Karl Malone - 27 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.2 spg, 53% FG, 76% FT, 10.2 FTA
C - Greg Ostertag - 4.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.1 bpg, 48% FG

Key Reserves:
Shandon Anderson - 8.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.8 spg, 53% FG, 21.9% 3PT
Howard Eisley - 7.7 ppg, 4.2 apg, 2 TO, 44% FG, 41% 3PT
Antoine Carr - 5.7 ppg, 2 rpg, 46.5% FG, 0.8 blk

2008 Utah Jazz
Starters:
PG - Deron Williams - 18.8 ppg, 10.5 apg, 1.1 spg, 51% FG, 39.5% 3PT, 37.3 MIN
SG - Ronnie Brewer - 12 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.7 spg, 27.5 MIN, 56% FG, 22% 3PT
SF - Andrei Kirilenko - 11 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.2 spg, 1.5 blk, 4 apg, 51% FG, 38% 3PT
PF - Carlos Boozer - 21.1 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 55% FG
C - Mehmet Okur - 14.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2 apg, .4 blk, 45% FG, 39% 3PT

Key Reserves: SF - Matt Harpring - 8.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.1 apg, .6 spg, 50% FG, 20% 3PT
SG - Kyle Korver - 9.8 ppg, 1.4 apg, .4 stl, .5 blk, 2 rpg, 47% FG, 39% 3PT
PF - Paul Millsap - 8.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1 apg, .9 spg, .9 blk, 50% FG

Head-to-Head Statistical Comparisons
*when comparing teams, it should be noted that the 2008 Jazz average significantly more possessions per game than the 1998 Jazz. This would adjust specific statistics per game, but not percentages.

1998 Jazz - 101 ppg, 41 rpg, 25 apg, 7.9 spg, 5 bpg, 15.4 TO, 49% FG, 37.2% 3PT, 77.3% FT
2008 Jazz - 106.2 ppg, 41 rpg, 26.4 apg, 8.7 spg, 4.3 blk, 14.6 TO, 49.7% FG, 37.2% 3PT, 75.9% FT

Thoughts: At first glance it would appear that the 2008 Jazz were a much better offensive team (ppg, apg, etc), but in reality both teams are freakishly similar. If you were to adjust possessions to make teams equal, both teams would have very similar ppg and very similar apg. This is also made apparent in the percentages where both teams average exactly 37.2% from behind the ark. 2008 holds a very slight advantages in FG% while 1998 has a higher FT%. Both offset each other in my eyes. The 1998 Jazz would be considered a better rebounding team per possession, but the 2008 Jazz have a far better TO margin. Interesting.

1998 Opponent - 94.4 ppg, 36.5 rpg, 14.1 TO, 44% FG, 35.7% 3PT
2008 Opponent - 99.3 ppg, 37 rpg, 15.9 TO, 46.1% FG, 35.7% 3PT

Thoughts: Again you might think at first glance that the 98 team was far more efficient defensively, but the numbers are slightly deceptive. If you were to adjust the points per game so that the number of possessions were equal, we'd see a very similar result. The same logic applies to rebounding (though this statistic would show the 2008 Jazz giving up fewer rebounds per possession. This directly contradicts the stats previously mentioned as if there are simply fewer overall rebounds per possession nowadays. Maybe there are more fouls?). TOs per possession also adjusts to similar values. FG percentage does give the defensive edge to the 1998 Jazz by a difference of nearly 2%. How strange is the similarity in 3 PT%. It would appear as if we are STRONGLY underestimating the impact Jerry Sloan's system has on his teams.

The NBA of 1998

The 1997-98 Utah Jazz finished atop the Midwest Division and the Western Conference with a record of 62-20 (tied with Chicago for best in NBA). The Western Conference was relatively week that year, with an average winning percentage of .471. The Midwest Division was even worse with an average winning percentage of .443. The 1998 Jazz topped TNT's analysts (Barkley, Kenny Smith and crew) 3 games to 2. In the second round, the 1998 Jazz defeated Avery Johnson, David Robinson and the rest of the San Antonio Spurs 4 games to 1. In the Western Conference Finals, the Jazz swept Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers in 4 straight games to reach the NBA Finals. The joy was short lived however as Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and the Chicago Bulls defeated the Jazz in 6 games.

How far could the 2008 Jazz have gone in those same playoffs? Considering the conference was significantly weaker, we'll give the 2008 Jazz 3 more wins and a record of 57-25. This would have given the Jazz the 3rd seed in the conference entering the playoffs. As the 3rd seed, the Jazz would face the Minnesota Timberwolves led by Kevin Garnett and Stephon Marbury. The young Garnett would not have been superior (at the time) to the Jazz frontcourt of Boozer and Okur, and Marbury would have been absolutely abused by Deron Williams. DWill averages 30 ppg, 12 apg and the Jazz advance in a 3-game sweep (best of 5 in the first round in 1998).

In the second round, the Jazz would then have faced Shawn Kemp, Gary Payton and the Seattle Supersonics who narrowly advanced. Don't be confused by the name Kemp, at this point Kemp is playing at a level far below his 96 days when he led his team to the NBA finals. Boozer and Millsap go at Kemp all day and keep him either on the bench with fouls, or too winded to be effective. Meanwhile, Gary "the Glove" Payton is effective at keeping DWill's production to a reasonable level. DWill averages 17 ppg and 8 apg, while Boozer goes off for 27 ppg and 13 rpg. The 2008 Jazz overcome a couple of setbacks to advance to the Western Conference Finals in 6 games.

In the Western Conference Finals the 2008 Jazz face a team that sent them packing from the future 2008 playoffs. The 1998 Kobe isn't nearly the puzzle piece he would develop into, but the 1998 Shaquille O'Neal is also a beast unlike any they would see in 2008. Shaq and the Lakers bully their way to an early 2-0 lead in the series. The Jazz however return home to a Rockin' Delta Center (later to be re-named Energy Solutions Arena) and bounce back to even the series at 2-2 behind the strong play of Deron Williams. The Jazz were successfully able to draw Shaq away from the basket using Mehmet Okur's long-range shooting. Game 5 goes back to LA where a second-year pro named Derek Fisher hits a game winning 3 pointer at the buzzer to win the game for the Lakers 102-100. Game 6 in Salt Lake City was an ugly game, where Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Jarron Collins and Paul Millsap all foul out of the game against O'Neal. The Lakers held the lead until the final minutes when the Jazz were able to take the lead. O'Neal misses 6 of 6 free throws down the stretch, and Kobe Bryant air-balls two consecutive 3 pointers, one to give the Lakers the lead, and one to tie the game at the buzzer. The series goes back to LA tied the decisive game 7. The Lakers come out firing. Kobe Bryant goes off for 10 in the first quarter, and "fast Eddie" Jones puts in 8. The Lakers end the first quarter up 32-22. The second quarter starts similar to the first with the Lakers extending the lead to 15. That's when the Jazz bench goes off against the Lakers bench, scoring 8 unanswered points to go into half-time down 55-48. The third quarter is a battle with the Lakers looking to establish Shaquille O'Neal on the low block. To this point the Lakers have played a fast-paced game, and Shaq has only managed 10 points on 4-5 shooting and 2-4 from the line. Unlike game 6, the Jazz do not immediately foul Shaq. Rather, they send a double team with Kirilenko who would finish the game with 4 blocks. Shaq grows frustrated while Lakers Coach Dale Harris fails to adjust. The Jazz tie up the game after 3 at 76-76. The fourth quarter starts with the a couple of quick Laker threes while the Jazz struggle from the foul-line. The Lakers move up by 5 midway through the period when the Jazz hit 3 pointers on 3 consecutive possessions (2 by Korver, 1 by Okur). That quickly, the Jazz take a 3 point lead and force a Laker timeout with 4 minutes to go. The Lakers and Jazz would exchange blows for the next three minutes and the score sits tied with 1 minute remaining. The Jazz keep the ball in the hands of Deron Williams who runs the clock down to 45 seconds before attacking. DWill comes off a high screen and roll and attacks the paint...the defense follows. DWill kicks the ball back out to Mehmet Okur who shoots from long range and hits what appears to be a 3 pointer, but the refs only gave him credit for 2 points. The TV replay would show that Okur had his toe on the line, and the refs made the correct call. The Lakers brought the ball back down the floor in hopes of taking a shot near 30 seconds (2 for 1). The ball ends up in the hands of Kobe Bryant who drives and pulls up from 20, but misses the shot. Carlos Boozer grabs the loose ball and is quickly fouled by Shaquille O'Neal...his 6th and final foul of the game. Boozer steps up to the line and hits the first free-throw. As Boozer shoots his second free-throw he lets out a yell as the ball hangs on the rim for a second before falling off the side. The Lakers get the rebound with 20 seconds remaining, and call timeout to set up a final play. The Lakers come out of the timeout with the ball at midcourt in the hands of Kobe Bryant. Kobe runs a screen and roll with reserve big man Elden Campbell before kicking the ball to Derek Fisher on the wing with 5 seconds remaining. Fisher pumpfakes and drives toward the rim. Fisher then sees Boozer help off his man and kicks it to Robert Horry in the corner who barries a 3-pointer at the buzzer...OVERTIME. The dramatics of regulation did not carry over to Overtime however. Without Shaq in the game, the Jazz attack the basket and get up early on back-to-back layups by Williams and Boozer. Meanwhile, Kobe and the Lakers force up a couple of ill-advised long range jumpers to be controlled by the Jazz. With 2 minutes to go, the Jazz find themselves with the ball and a 6 point lead. Jazz coach Jerry Sloan inserts free-throw specialist Kyle Korver back into the game who hits 4 free throws in the final minute to give the Jazz a thrilling overtime victory of 115-106. Deron Williams jumps in celebration with a fist pump while Carlos Boozer catches him in mid air. Jerry Sloan looks torn whether he should be celebrating with his team or fixing his hair which was messed up in the celebration.

The NBA Finals had the Utah Jazz and the Chicago Bulls in Chicago for game 1. The Bulls won games 1 and 2 convincingly by an average margin of 18 points. Michael Jordan average 36 points in front of his home crowd. The 2008 Jazz return to Salt Lake with renewed optimism, having lost only 3 games all season at home, 1 of the 3 to the Bulls. The Jazz jumped on the Bulls early behind the strong play of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer, but found their stars in foul-trouble early in the 3rd quarter after referee Tim Donaghy called a questionable foul on Carlos Boozer. With Boozer and Williams on the bench, the Jazz bench held their own against the Bulls starting rotation. Jordan was having an off shooting day, hitting only 25% of his shots. To start the 4th quarter, the Jazz held a 3 point lead. The Bulls came out behind veteran leadership and playoff experience to take outscore the Jazz 25-15 in the final quarter, placing the 2008 Jazz in a series hole of 3-0. Game 4 was promising for the young 2008 Jazz team however as they bounced back to defeat the Bulls by a score of 108-82. Game 5 was a fight back and forth, but Michael Jordan was ultimately too much for the Jazz defenders. Ronnie Brewer sat out much of the game with foul-trouble, while Jordan scored 55 points on Matt Harpring. The Bulls defeated the Jazz 112-87, to complete the series in 5 games.

Two days after the end of the NBA Finals, Michael Jordan developed a terrible flu and spent much of the day bed-ridden in his home outside of Chicago.

The NBA of 2008

The 2007-08 Utah Jazz finished atop the Northwest Division with a record of 54-28. The NW Division was not exceptionally strong with an average winning percentage of .456. The Western Conference as a whole however was exceptionally strong, with an average winning percentage of .527 (good enough to make the playoffs in 1998).

To keep things equal, we'll apply the same logic to the 1998 Jazz as we did previously to the 2008 Jazz. Due to a significantly more competitive conference, We'll assume that the 1998 Jazz would finish with a record of 59-23, good enough for the top seed in the West.

In the first round of the 2008 Playoffs, our 1998 Utah Jazz squad would be matched up against a division rival in the Denver Nuggets. On paper, this match-up looks competitive. On the hardwood, the 2008 Nuggets have struggled heavily against disciplined opponents. The Nuggets fall behind early, and lose big in the first 2 games at Energy Solutions Arena. Returning to Denver, the Nuggets show revived enthusiasm behind 42 points by Allen Iverson. Game 4 doesn't start well for the Nuggets, and gets worse as Kenyon Martin and JR Smith both are ejected. The Jazz roll to a 112-92 victory and a 3-1 series lead. Returning home for game 5, the veteran Jazz of 1998 show poise to withstand an early run by the Nuggets. Despite 35 points by Carmelo Anthony, the Jazz win 105-97.

In the second round of the 2008 playoffs, the 1998 Jazz face Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs (4th seed). Both teams pound on each other in the game. Karl Malone paces the Jazz with 20 points and 15 rebounds while Tim Duncan puts up similar numbers for the Spurs. John Stockton dishes out 11 assists for the Jazz while Tony Parker struggles to find a rhythm. Manu Ginobli is held to 18 points by Bryon Russell and the Jazz squeek out a 87-82 win. The Spurs wouldn't be held down for long however as they rebound to knock off the Jazz in a thriller in Salt Lake. Spurs coach Greg Popovic is praised for his game to game adjustments as the Spurs hold Karl Malone to only 15 points on 5 for 15 shooting. As the Jazz return to San Antonio, the Jazz come out trying to attack the paint through sharp cuts and crisp passing. Early on the strategy is effective, but after halftime the Jazz just aren't able to knock down outside shots. The Spurs win game 3 by a score of 92-84. Game 4 was a legendary game with both teams exchanging blows. Karl Malone got position early and often against Tim Duncan, drawing him into early foul trouble. In replacing Duncan, Fabricio Oberto just got abused by Malone. Malone finished the game with 38 points and 16 rebounds, as the Jazz pull away late to a 104-92 victory despite shooting poorly from the outside once again. As both teams return to Salt Lake City, Jazz coach Jerry Sloan has his team focused and pressing for physicality. With both teams knowing each other well, game 5 turns ugly quick. Duncan and Malone went at each other all night, each scoring about 20 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. The key for the Jazz lay in their backcourt, and not with John Stockton. Swingmen Bryon Russell and Shandon Anderson absolutely abuse the aging Spurs swingmen. Once again, Hornacek and Stockton struggle from deep, but the Jazz do enough to win the game 88-84. Game 6 returns to San Antonio, and is vastly different than games in the past. Different than the slow, physical games leading up to game 6, the Jazz and Spurs explode for massive offensive production. The Jazz jump out to an early lead in the first quarter 34-31, while the Spurs return to even the score at halftime 56-56. By the end of the third quarter, the Jazz have once again pulled ahead, this time 88-83. The Jazz extend the lead to 10 early in the fourth before the Spurs start to chop away at the lead. With 2 minutes to go, the Jazz lead has dwindled to 108-106. Robert Horry proves a hero for the Spurs as he drills a 3 pointer in the final minute to give the Spurs the lead 111-110. The experience of John Stockton proves too much for Tony Parker, as Stockton extends the defense with the screen and roll, and hits Hornacek with pin-point precision and Hornacek nets a 10 foot floater at the buzzer. Jazz win Game 6 112-111 and take the series 4 games to 2.

In the Western Conference Finals, the 1998 would face familiar faces in familiar uniforms, Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers prove ready for the Jazz behind coach Phil Jackson's game plan. The Lakers jump out to a big first-half lead on the road in Utah. Jerry Sloan decided not to call a timeout during a 15-2 Laker run. After halftime, John Stockton and Jeff Hornacek take matters into their own hands and combine for 30 points and 15 assists in the second half. Malone never gets into rhythm, and ends up with only 12 points and 6 rebounds. Nevertheless, the Jazz win 95-89. Game 2 the Jazz come out firing on all cylinders. Stockton dishes out 18 assists, Malone scores 28 points and grabs 14 rebounds, and Jeff Hornacek hits 4 three pointers as the Jazz cruise to a 103-92 win in Game 2. Returning to LA, the Lakers come out attacking Malone inside, but Pau Gasol is downright outplayed by the senior Malone. Lamar Odom has not showed up this series and continues to be ineffective. Kobe Bryant is averaging 34 points per game, but its not enough in Game 3 as the Jazz beat the Lakers in LA. Game 4 causes the 1998 Jazz to stumble, despite a low-scoring game by Kobe Bryant. The Lakers have 6 players in double figures led by Kobe Bryant's 18 as the Lakers defeat the Jazz handily in LA. Game 5 is played in the ESA, and that proved to be the difference. A hard fought game all night eventually goes to the tougher team. Kobe Bryant scored over 30 points for the 4th time in the series, but the Lakers still lose 95-87.

The 1998 Jazz enter the NBA finals with experience and determination. Their opponents are Kevin Garnett and the Boston Celtics. The Jazz are also on the road for the first time in the playoffs to open a series. The Celtics take pride in their defensive prowess, but the Jazz are a structured team who is built to pick apart a defense like the Celtics. Game 1 was hard fought, but Celtic emotion pulled out the victory in front of their home crowd 92-85. Paul Pierce leads the Celtics with 21 points. Game 2 the Celtics come out flat. The Jazz pound the ball, and Garnett's athleticism is taken out of the picture as Malone pushes him around the floor. Rajon Rondo looks like a rookie as Stockton explodes for 12 points and 19 assists. Malone finishes with 20 and 10 and the Jazz prevail in Boston, 103-92. The series returns to Utah tied 1-1. In Utah, the Jazz feed off their home crowd and dominate the Celtics 108-72. Celtics Coach Doc Rivers questions his teams toughness, and the Celtics respond with a physical performance in game 4. Garnett holds his ground against Malone and forces him into a poor shooting performance. Hornacek doesn't get the daylight on the outside to get a shot off, and the Celtics force Bryon Russell, Greg Ostertag and John Stockton to beat them...Celtics win an ugly game 77-72. Game 5 is also in Utah, and behind Jerry Sloan's toughness, the Jazz respond like they are in a fistfight. As always, Jerry Sloan's club bruises up Paul Pierce, and Ronnie Brewer effectively shuts down Ray Allen. Garnett struggles against Karl Malone, and the leading scorer for Celtics is Leon Powe. The Jazz win game 5 going away, 92-75. Game 6 returns to Boston and the Jazz come out stale. Fortunately for the Jazz, the Celtics don't look much better. At halftime of this game, the score is only 36-34 in favor of the Celtics. The third quarter gets ugly quick with Malone and Garnett both spending much of the quarter on the bench. For the better part of the quarter, Kendrick Perkins is the highest scoring player for theCeltics, and Bryon Russell is the highest scoring Jazz man. In the 4th quarter, Malone takes over and lives at the line. Garnett ends up fouling out with about 4 minutes left, and Malone is seemingly at the line each time down the floor. With the score close, Malone misses a free throw in the final minute and the Celtics capitalize on a Ray Allen 3 pointer to tie the game. The Jazz can't hold for the final shot, but they do drain the clock down to 20 seconds before calling a timeout. Out of the timeout, the Jazz hit Stockton on the run who pulls up from 15 feet to drain a jumper. The Jazz take the lead 78-76. Boston calls a timeout and draws up a play for Paul Pierce. Paul Pierce is tightly guarded however by Bryon Russell and John Stockton in the corner yet he decides to force up a shot with a few seconds left. The shot misses badly, and the Celtics put back is not in time. The 1998 Jazz are NBA Champions.

Head-to-Head, 1998 Jazz vs. 2008 Jazz
The bottom line in this game matchup, is that the 1998 Jazz have 2 of the greatest players in the history of the game. However, the offensive fire power that the 2008 Jazz possess would keep this series close. Deron Williams vs John Stockton would be a great matchup. Stockton is a tremendous defensive player on the perimeter, but DWill would still produce on offense. The difference here would lie inside. As good as Malone was on offense, he was equally as effective on defense. There is not a single player on the 2008 Jazz that could guard Malone, yet Malone and Ostertag would be effective in containing Boozer. Hornacek is a better piece than any on the 2008 Jazz squad, but the 2008 bench is far more effective than the 1998 bench. Brewer and Kirilenko are better than Russell and Anderson. Mehmet Okur would be a tough matchup for the 1998 Jazz, as Ostertag would opt to play inside. If this were a single game, both teams would have a realistic chance of victory. As a series, the 1998 Jazz take the series in 6.