The Kirilenko Dilemma

Let’s start with a trivia question:

How much money will the Jazz pay for Andrei Kirilenko this season?

$15 Million?

$17 Million?

$20 Million?

The answer is $35 Million.

…Now wait a minute…isn’t Andrei Kirilenko set to make nearly $17M next season? In terms of salary… yes. In actuality, his cost to the franchise is much, much more. The Jazz are looking at $13 Million in luxury taxes, and an additional $5 Million in lost revenue. $17M + $13M + $5M = $35 Million.

This whole financial crisis the Jazz currently face can be directly linked back to Andrei Kirilenko. Never mind his lackluster production and sensitive skins, the Jazz have inescapably tied themselves to Kirilenko’s freakishly absurd contract for 2 more seasons.

Well, critics might argue that it’s only one year of luxury tax until Boozer’s contract comes off the books, and the Jazz will be OK. Bull Crap. $97 Million in real salary cost next season is unacceptable and has the potential to sink a small market franchise like the Jazz, no matter how “stable” they view themselves.

So the real question for the Jazz is how do they get rid of Andrei Kirilenko?

There are 3 options to this shiver creating nightmare:

#1 – Let Kirilenko play out his contract, underperform, and cost the team millions of dollars in luxury tax.

Consequences of #1 – The Jazz are bound financially this year and next year. The Jazz make the playoffs but fail to earn home court advantage, and thus l

ose in the first round both years. Failure to make the second round of the playoffs will cost the Jazz an additional $1 Million in potential revenue for every playoff game they miss. Kirilenko is set to cry at least twice more after a game. Jerry Sloan will rip AK a THIRD A-hole for trying to do too much outside the offense, 2 vacations will be planned during the last week of the season for the second round of the playoffs, and Kirilenko will never be happier despite his team being very mediocre.

#2 – Trade Kirilenko this year for cap relief this year.

Consequences of #2 – Though still facing luxury tax issues from returning contracts, relief from Kirilenko’s contract one year in advance would be very welcome. This would also allow the Jazz some flexibility in trading Carlos Boozer for a long-term high level player, rather than a role player with an expiring contract (see Joel Pryzbylla under “Expiring Role Player”). I believe this is the direction the Jazz would pursue if the Rip Hamilton for Carlos Boozer trade were to occur. Keep in mind the Jazz have a sure lottery pick next season from the Knicks, potentially in the top 5.

#3 – Keep Kirilenko this year, trade him next year when his contract is expiring for a high level player. The side piece here is to either trade Boozer now for cap relief, or let his contract expire.

Consequences of #3 - The positive side about this option is the Jazz would most definitely receive a very high quality player in return for Kirilenko’s expiring contract (an Emeka Okafor + expiring, or a sign and trade for one of the many free agents on the market like Joe Johnson or Michael Redd). The negative side about waiting to trade Kirilenko is we have to watch him all year. The Jazz also would face the major luxury tax problems this season still.

Kirilenko’s value will unquestionable increase significantly next season when he is set to expire. Would you be willing to sell your Zion’s bank stock for $12.00 per share right now knowing that next year the stock is going to be worth $20.00 per share? I believe Kirilenko’s value is set to increase by 50%-75% next season.

Again, the wildcard in this situation is the lottery pick the Jazz own next season, though you’ll never hear O’Connor mention that outside of Deron Williams, that is the most valuable asset the Jazz own.

Who knows, maybe we can trade his Masha’s “exception” clause. That would certainly net us more value than AK’s production at SF.

Opt In, Opt In, and Opt In

Opt out or opt in? That is the question. While there are many answers to this question, the best answer to this question for the Utah Jazz is opt in. Opt in, opt in, and opt in. Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Kyle Korver all should opt in for the remaining year of their contracts with the Jazz.

The main goal of any organization is to maximize assets, while minimizing liabilities (debts and expenses). NBA organizations are no different. Take a look at some of the most successful organizations in recent years (including major turnarounds):

Boston Celtics: Built a significant share of assets, used those assets to bring in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. The Celtics went from one of the worst teams in the NBA, to NBA champions, and arguably the best team in the NBA when healthy.

San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs have been more successful drafting late in the first round, than most teams in the lottery. Drafting players and keeping them overseas only to have their stock rise upon arrival to the US. Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker are resonating examples of the Spurs philosophy.

Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers built a supporting cast for Kobe Bryant out of mid to high level role players. They used the asset of Kwame Brown’s expiring contract to land Pau Gasol, and they acquired and developed two nice assets in Shannon Brown and Trevor Ariza. Again, that seems to be working well for the Lakers.

Portland

Trailblazers: The Blazers were an absolute train wreck only a few years ago. That’s when the organization changed their philosophy and started to acquire draft picks and young talent. With the drafting of Brandon Roy, look for the Blazers to use these young assets to acquire a proven piece to pair with Roy in bringing the Blazers back to the highest stage of the NBA.

With the Economy in the pits, the most valuable assets in the NBA next season will be expiring contracts (NBA superstars excluded; LeBron, Kobe, DWade, and a few others). If the economy doesn’t rapidly turn around, half of the teams in the NBA will continue to bleed money. The longer these organizations bleed, the more desperate they will get. Unless a team is a contender by December, the trade deadline will arrive with many organizations desperate to move players and save money…enter Boozer, Okur and Korver.

Another reason why the expiring contracts would be valuable, is the 2010 off season. The Jazz would never be a major player in attracting top tie free agents, but other teams would love to clear cap space just to be in the picture.

On the flip side, if the economic struggles continue beyond this season, Andrei Kirilenko’s expiring contract will be far more valuable in two years than it is right now. In fact, I would argue that in terms of asset value, it would be more valuable for the Jazz if Andrei Kirilenko did NOT play a single game next season and trade him next season, then it would be for the Jazz to trade Andrei Kirilenko for say, a lower lottery pick or a couple of decent players.

Teams such as Sacramento, Golden State, Phoenix, Houston, San Antonio, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Indiana, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, New York, New Jersey, Charlotte, Miami, Atlanta, Washington and Denver all could be looking to acquire expiring contracts if the season turns in a negative direction.

With Korver, Boozer and Okur returning to the Jazz next season, the Jazz would have near $30M in expiring contracts in 2010, and near $23M expiring in 2011. In theory, the Jazz could acquire 2 high level stars in return for these players, possibly 3.

Don’t forget the Jazz own the rights to the New York Knicks draft pick in 2010, a draft considered to be significantly stronger than this year’s draft.

Opt in, opt in, and opt in. That’s the best case scenario for the jazz. The jazz need to focus on increasing their asset value. Having Boozer walk away now, would be like selling a stock at a 4 year low. Hold the stock, know that the stock will increase significantly next year.

Motivation of a Champion: Will to Win or Hatred of Defeat?

Before we get to the post, let me welcome our readers back for another Utah Jazz offseason.  Captain Obvious would state that this will be one of the most eventful offseasons in the history of our beloved franchise. 

 

Let’s start with the Eastern Conference Finals.  After suffering a lopsided defeat in g

ame 6, LeBron James exited the court without participating in the traditional congratulations and post-series back patting ceremonies.  After the confetti had settled, James was a no-show in the media hall for interviews. Nothing James could have said or done in the press conference could have spoken as loudly as his noticeable absence from league mandatory media relations.

 James’ controversial reaction to defeat has raised a question in my mind: What motivates a champion?  Is it a player’s will to win? Or is it the hatred of defeat what puts a player/team/coach on top of the sporting world? 

 

Jazz coach Jerry Sloan subscribes to the concept of hating to lose.  Did you know that as an NBA player, Jerry Sloan would pin up a picture of the opposing player he had been assigned to defend in his locker prior to every game?  I wonder if he carries a picture of Phil Jackson in his wallet to remind him of how far short his team has ended the past two seasons? These days Phil’s awkward face may have been replaced by a Free Drink coupon to Texas Roadhouse.

 Speaking of the zen master, Phil Johnson subscribes to a different theory than Coach Sloan.  Johnson believes what fuels a championship is a superstar’s will to win.  Think positive, stay focused, give the ball to Kobe, and get out of his way…is there a better recipe for success in today’s NBA?  If so, try to tell a guy with a championship ring for every one of his cat’s lives.

 Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and Kobe Bryant all were praised for their off-season workout regimes.   Each player enjoyed the highest levels of success during their NBA careers.  All suffered defeat before reaching and winning the NBA finals.  Certainly work ethic played a big part for each of these players, but what fueled these players to work so hard all the time?  Was it the feeling of defeat each suffered in college and the NBA? It could reasonably be assumed that these players never wanted to feel that sting of defeat again, and would do anything to overcome defeat.  Or was it the ability to cope with defeat?  It is also reasonable to assume that before a player can play at the highest level, they can’t be afraid to make mistakes.  This belief is better suited with the belief that a champion’s motivation is fueled by a will to win, even if it means losing along the way.

 

Let’s return to Saturday Night’s Eastern Conference Finals.  The NBA’s golden child exited the court and arena noticeably frustrated.  The competitive side of me wants to love the fact that LeBron truly hated to be associated with defeat, recognizing that I might do the same thing.  One of my biggest pet peeves is w

atching players burst out in smiles and laughter the second after the final horn sounds.  The NBA would be much more entertaining if there were more guys like LeBron James and Jerry Sloan with pictures of the enemy pinned to their lockers. 

 On the opposite side, Cavalier fans should be worried.  Is the pressure of being the anointed one getting to LeBron?  Was the shock of an unfulfilled prophecy too much to bare?  While the reigning MVP did not shy away from taking the big shot (make or miss), his post-game behavior confirmed to onlookers why James has not yet won a title, the king has not yet learned to accept defeat. 

 

My conclusion: LeBron is at least 2 years away from his first of many NBA championships.  Once James learns that success isn’t about playing in the biggest NBA city (New York City in 2010), or becoming a billionaire (publicly declared), at that point, James will be mature enough to win his championships.  Until then, living up to the labels the NBA is forcing upon him will be a monumental task.  If James does choose to skip town, basketball fans everywhere may miss out on the greatest athlete professional sports has ever seen.