Draft Time!

There's no sense in beating around the bush with introductions, let's get right to the Jazz offseason!

The Draft:

It is obvious the Jazz entered this year's draft with a plan. With a roster full of young talent (13 players under contract for next season, throw in CJ Miles and you've got 14) and 3 picks in this year's draft (#23, #44 and #53), there simply isn't much wiggle room for the Jazz to take risks with. The NBA requires all teams to trim their rosters to a 15 players by the start of the season. If there are additional players under contract, then a financial agreement must be made between players and teams. Here are my thoughts on what the draft had to offer us fans.

1. The demand for backup help may be at an all time high. It was interesting for me to watch the draft unfold. Early on, young guards went shooting off the board. I was never too sold on this year's crop of combo guards. Players like Jarryd Bayless and Eric Gordon remind me of Rashad McCants out of college. McCants was a spectacular player who seemed to make every big shot for unquestionably the most talented college team in America (UNC). At 6'4 he was considered a combo guard who could get his shot off against anyone. Well, as the years unfold, we now see him as a solid spot up shooter who is too undersized to ever be anything better than a rotational player on a poor team. On many playoff teams he may never leave the bench. Gordon and Bayless are cut from this same mold, and I expect similar struggles from them at the next level.

2. The Jazz were clearly targeting a big at #23. With a guaranteed contract at stake, you can bet your money the Jazz explored all options of moving the pick. With many combo guards going early in the draft, once the double digit picks rolled around, big men started going quick. It could reasonably be argued that this year's draft was much deeper in terms of big men than guards, yet guards stole the attention early on. The big men that went before the Jazz pick in the draft were as follows (in order of pick):

Michael Beasley (PF) - Beasley will be an instant star in the NBA, and you can punch his ticket to the All-Star game in 2010. Expect immediate impact, and instant scoring to what has been a terrible front court in Miami.
Kevin Love (PF/C) - Love is intriguing yet worrisome as an NBA prospect. You have to love his skills offensively, and he is a very good defender. His slower feet and frame does not create an intimidating presence around the hoop on either end, but his basketball IQ is through the roof and I expect him to make up for deficiencies and contribute immediately in Minnesota as an upgrade offensively over Craig Smith, and an upgrade defensively over Al Harrington.
Brook Lopez (C) - I really don't like Brook Lopez as a prospect. Sure he has some talent offensively, but I still wouldn't put him in the same category offensively as a Marreese Speights or JJ Hickson who both went significantly lower than Lopez. He will be a below average defender at the next level and will be a terrible rebounder. I challenge anyone to find a championship team in the past 20 years that have not been able to rebound the basketball. In his first Summer League game he played 20 minutes, scored 10 points on 50% shooting and had zero rebounds.
Jason Thompson (PF) - Thompson is an intriguing prospect because he has the potential to be a steal. The Kings wanted to go big, and Thompson is a gamble who could pay off. Unfortunately for the Kings, gambling will bite you in the end, and I expect Thompson to be struggling to find a role on an NBA team throughout his career.
Anthony Randolph (PF) - Randolph may arguably have the most upside of any big man in the draft. Don Nelson has never been an easy coach to play for as a young NBA player, and I don't expect him to change for Randolph. He'll play minimally in his first couple of years and develop into a player similar to Hakim Warrick or Stromile Swift.
Robin Lopez (C) - The less heralded second Lopez twin. A good comparison for Robin Lopez might be Jarron Collins, while his brother might be a Jason Collins. Both 7'0 twins, both Stanford grads, etc. In Jarron's defense, he has made a comfortable living as a career 12th man. He's valuable as a 3rd center who can defend some and rebound, but never effective enough to warrant anything more.
Marreese Speights (PF) - Speights is the type of player that could find a role as instant offense off the bench. In order to make it in the NBA as a role player, you have to have either one very advanced skill, or you must have a high level of all skills. Speights will find his way into the rotation as a Malik Rose type player that can keep the offense moving while the big scorers take a rest. If the Sixers land Brand, it would be an ideal situation for Speights to come off the bench to relieve Brand. He's got the skills to develop offensively, he just needs the right situation.
Roy Hibbert (C) - Hibbert is about as NBA ready as any big in the draft. At 7'2, with a good basketball IQ, a good motor, and good skills he will find his place instantly in an NBA rotation. While he will never be an NBA all-star, he will contribute for many years. Too many teams get caught up on how high a player's ceiling is. At pick #17, Hibbert's a guy who can contribute right away, improve your team, and perhaps serve as an asset to land you an all-star in the future. I expect Hibbert to stay a few years in Toronto, then get packaged in a deal that will bring Chris Bosh a more explosive sidekick.
JaVale McGee (C) - Where to start? McGee comes from good Pedigree and measures well physically. That's about all the positives I want to give McGee. McGee never dominated in college in a very poor conference with no bigs to go against. His motor is terrible and he never appears to have the desire to get better or the desire to learn. McGee will finish his rookie contract and continue his career over seas.
JJ Hickson (PF) - Hickson is a legitimate scorer on the low block. He's athletic, with a nice shooting touch, and a good body that can handle contact. He's not as big as Speights, but may find a similar role in the NBA. The key with Hickson will be finding a situation where he can flourish. Cleveland may not be the best fit, but I think he'll play enough to get himself a second contract in the league. Once he gets a second contract, he may find a role of 15-20 minutes a night.
Alexis Ajinca (C) - Ajinca is a player that really catches your eye when you see him. He's long, athletic, and possesses good basketball skills that are manifest in drills. He's never played against high level competition, so teams saw him as a high risk-high reward type of player. That much is true. I don't see how a guy that averaged nearly 5 & 3 in a bad league got drafted in the first round. If Ajinca was in college in the US right now, he would have averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds in the WAC. Yet he earned a first round draft pick. At least he can stay overseas if he chooses, but I never see him touching an NBA court.
Ryan Anderson (PF) - The best case scenario for Anderson would be a borderline rotation player. Maybe New Jersey sees more than I do, but I'm sure glad he wasn't on the board when the Jazz picked. I know the Jazz were working hard to bring him in for a workout, but never could make it happen. Thank goodness he wasn't on the board when we picked.

This brings us to the Jazz picks.

Kosta Koufos (C) Fr, Ohio State - We knew the Jazz were looking to go big, so it was no surprise here. The only surprise was that Koufos was still on the board. Don't be fooled by the European name, Koufos is American and plays that way. He is a legitimate prospect, with great size/length, and excellent skills. He played only 1 year of college basketball before going to the draft, and is one of the youngest players in the draft. In terms of ceilings, Koufos exceeds all the bigs listed above except Beasley, Love and perhaps Randolph. He is much closer to being NBA-ready than Randolph however. Don't expect too much from Koufos early in his career. The Jazz have a solid rotation in their front court with a 3-man wheel of Millsap, Okur and Boozer. There aren't many minutes available after them (barring injury or foul trouble). Koufos will struggle in his rookie season to pass Collins for the backup center position, simply because the Jazz will look to develop him through practice and the D-League where he can keep his confidence high, while playing major minutes. I expect Koufos to be a borderline NBA starter, who will be a career rotational player. A good comparison would be somewhere between Nenad Krstic, Big Z Illgauskas (in terms of skills) and Chris Kaman (rebounding and a banger).

Ante Tomic (C) Croatia - With the Jazz opting not to trade their first round pick, that puts the roster at 15 players. It would be highly unlikely any second round draft pick would make the team this year unless there were trades made to free up roster space. The Jazz knew this and had a plan which they followed perfectly. Tomic is a young big man that can stay overseas and develop. In terms of skills, he is ready right now to play in the NBA, and pick up some minutes against certain opponents. However, he only weighs 225 lbs. Until he develops a body, he will get killed in the NBA. Offensively he is spectacular with the ball in his hands. He runs the floor well and plays team basketball. We have all heard the stories about him developing as a guard before growing to 7'1. He does however lack the explosion necessary to be a factor inside. Defensively he will be overpowered and will never be a good shot blocker off of the floor. His length will help him as he develops however. My expectation for Tomic is to be a 10-12th man in the NBA, who will play against certain teams and sit against others.

Tadija Dragicevic (SF) Serbia - This is the mystery man. All we know about Tadija is that he is considered a prospect with good upside, he won the MVP of his league he plays in now, and he will stay overseas for a couple more years. Considering what the Jazz roster may look like in 2 years (no AK, no Harpring), he may have a chance to fill a role at some point with the Jazz.

3. My final thought on the draft was interesting redirected to last year's draft when the Jazz selected Kyrylo Fesenko. We all heard the excitement from the Jazz and how this kid may have been a lottery pick this year had he waited and got more publicity. We saw flashes of Big Fess this season that have generated similar excitement in many Jazz fans (myself included). Prior to the draft, the question was "will the player the Jazz draft be better able to help the Jazz in the coming years that Fesenko?" In the case of Hibbert or Koufus, yes they will. Any of the others I would have said no. We as fans have never been led to believe anything different from Jazz brass regarding Fesenko. So why did the Jazz draft 2 YOUNG centers, both the same age as Fesenko, that are considered prospects?

Sure, there is the argument that the Jazz went after the "best player available", which may be true. But we knew all along that the Jazz were looking big from the beginning. The Jazz now have the rights to 3 project centers, all the same age.

I guess the Jazz are not as high on Fesenko as we all thought. Perhaps his immature nature has rubbed coaches the wrong way? Perhaps Jazz brass do not believe that Fesenko has the motor to develop into a great player? Whichever the case may be, we can no longer assume the Jazz are confident Fesenko will be a contributor any time in the near or distant future.