Facing a slippery sloap

Problems:
1 – Leadership – Lack toughness, Poor road performance, and bad losses to bad teams
2 – Defensive strength – inability to win games when FG% is low, poor transition defense, and poor interior shot blocking
3 – Offensive woes – High differential between FG at home and road, inconsistent production outside top two scorers, lack second playmaker allowing teams to double team Williams.
4 – Financial Problems – High salaries, not performing to contract

Diagnosis:
The major money players on this team are going to be those at whom the primary analysis is placed.
Andrei Kirilenko
Deron Williams
Carlos Boozer
Mehmet Okur
While there are other players contributing to the success or lack of success of the team, it’s hard to complain about CJ Miles (example) when he only makes $3.5 million, while Andrei Kirilenko (example) is worth the equivalent of 5 CJ Miles.
Andrei Kirilenko:
AK is unquestionably the source of the problem on this team…not because of his lack of offensive production, but rather because of the financial burden he places on the team. $17M for AK causes financial strain, causing each player to be under a heavy microscope. If this team did not have AK’s salary on the books this year, the Jazz would currently be $12M under the salary cap. Rather than be talking about a Carlos Boozer for garbage trade, the Jazz brass would be positioned as one of very few teams with the cap space to absorb salary from a team looking to drop a high paid but high producing player (Like Michael Redd and the Bucks for example). But no use crying over spilled milk. AK is what he is, and the only question the Jazz have is how to rid themselves of his contract. They have 3 options; 1-Trade him this year for expiring contracts, 2-Trade him next year as an expiring contract and steal a long-term piece away from a desperate team (see Jazz and Boozer), or 3-Let his contract run out in 2 years and let yourself benefit from his contract coming off of the books.
Deron Williams:
DWill has been struggling of late, and as such has been the focus of much criticism, primarily toward his defense and turnovers. Looking back on DWill’s career, turnovers have been most apparent either when the team was injury strapped, or in a scoring slump. Take your pick, but DWill is clearly trying to overcompensate for his team and forcing the issue. Either way, the outcome is not great. Defensively DWill has looked strong at times, and downright awful at other times. But that’s the reality of the NBA; NBA players for the most part should be able to create or get to the hoop in a one-on-one situation. College coaches design plays to get layups or open jumpshots (Jerry Sloan also). NBA coaches design plays to get players in one-on-one situations, and let the players do the rest (Jim Boylen also…why is this backward?). I would argue that any NBA point guard or wing defender outside of the absolute elite defenders cannot defend a quick penetrating guard without an inside presence to intimidate and/or force the player to settle for outside jumpshots. While DWill is not exempt from criticism, 95% of NBA players would look bad in his shoes (Ronnie Price looks downright awful at times defensively as well, and he’s been known as a defensive hustle player by many NBA scouts). Perhaps the defensive criticism should be redirected elsewhere?
Carlos Boozer:
It pains me to say this, but Boozer has been the Jazz most consistent performer this season. Without his scoring and rebounding, I dare say the Jazz would be looking at a top 10 lottery pick (even with Millsap as a fill in). Now reality is Boozer is a very good player, not quite elite, but near the border. I’m sure if the Jazz were in a financially appropriate position (thank you AK), the Jazz would have extended Boozer’s contract long ago, and this whole drama would never have happened. Unfortunately money speaks loudly to Boozer, and he will be gone after this year. So, the Jazz have two options with Boozer; 1-Trade him and get something in return for him…can you really just let a player this good get away? Or 2- Take the extra money from his expiring contract and save for better times. The second option will keep you in the playoff hunt, but the first pretty much assures you a lottery selection. It’s the classic question of whether it is better to have a very good Boozer for 1 year, or 2 very average players for 3 years? Here’s another question to ponder…would Boozer really look as bad defensively if he were next to a defensive big man who took the tough defensive assignments each night and covered for mistakes when needed?
Mehmet Okur:
If you refer back to my original opinions on why this team is struggling so greatly (see “Problems”), Mehmet Okur’s name should appear next to many of these. Memo has an absolutely awful differential between home and road shooting percentages…which is more disturbing as he is now the “veteran” player on this team. Granted he is a good teammate and community member, but he is below average defensively, and a 1 trick pony offensively. Basically he’s on your team because his 1 trick is so unique…however that 1 trick only shows up in Salt Lake, and rarely on the road. His extension may also prove to be the next crippling move by the Jazz.
2010-11 Season Outlook:
Right now, the Jazz are looking at 8 players under contract (counting the Knicks pick the Jazz own in the draft, and their own pick that is lottery protected). The Jazz are also currently about $700k under the luxury tax. This means the Jazz need to find a way to replace the key players departing (Boozer, Korver, Matthews), while only having the NBA minimum/veteran’s exception to offer…AND they are still paying taxes on that team, which if you ask me looks very, very, very average. The Miller family has always said they would be willing to pay short-term luxury taxes if it brought success on the court, but would they be willing to pay those taxes for an average player?
What the Jazz should do:
Boozer - Prior to researching the luxury tax (which I haven’t mentioned is dropping by approximately $8.5M next season), I thought the Jazz would be stable financially if Boozer walked. I find this is not true. The Jazz MUST make a move this season, if only for next season. That move may be Boozer in exchange for some younger players and expiring contracts, but those young players will likely be available by Free Agent during the summer of madness anyway. The Jazz should seek to re-sign Boozer first, and unfortunately, if they are unsuccessful in doing so, the Jazz should simply let his contract expire at the end of the year. No Boozer trade for the Jazz. Sorry.
Okur – I firmly believe that if you remove contracts from consideration, and simply look at the Jazz roster and depth chart, Mehmet Okur will be the player that would be moved. He is simply the primary cause of poor production from a leadership standpoint (team veteran), from a road production standpoint (biggest differential between home and road FG% from contributing players), and from a defensive standpoint (he makes every player on the floor worse defensively, despite making a better effort this year). However, his contract is not very movable right now, and he will likely stay put. The Jazz will probably seek answers to my diagnosed problems from other incoming players not currently on the roster.
Kirilenko – The Jazz should move Kirilenko. I know he is arguably the best defensive player on the team, but he cripples the team financially…next year moreso than this year. I’ve always sworn that the Jazz should keep Kirilenko for 1 more year, then trade him as an expiring contract. That would be the only way the Jazz got equal (likely better) value for Kirilenko in a trade. The Jazz should trade Kirilenko for an aging leader, and expiring contracts. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jazz had to give up a young asset in the trade to get somebody to take him. Unfortunately that may be someone like Matthews, Brewer or Miles. Trading Kirilenko is the only way the Jazz MIGHT become competitive again next year…and it might be the only way the Jazz get any chance of re-signing Boozer for next year.
Go Jazz!