The Salt Palace - A blog for the SERIOUS Utah Jazz Fan!

Al Jefferson Breakdown

2010-07-13T11:30:00.000-06:00

Take a look at Al Jefferson's highlights. He's an absolute beast on the low block. Even against some of the most respected defensive players/coaches/teams, they still double team him immediately when on the block.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcT7JTmPPrk

Just saying...the guy can play. I believe Jerry Sloan's system is built perfectly for the guy, and his skills complement those of Milsap and Okur very well. Okur can play on the perimeter in a big lineup, with Jefferson on the low block demanding a double team. Milsap will work the high post very well, while Jefferson the low block.

His best move you'll come to love. It's a quick one dribble causing the defender to slide their feet, then going into the defenders chest, creating space even against the best of defenders knocking them off balance, and then rising and finishing over the top of them with a dunk, or a quick jumphook once the defender anticipates the contact. He has excellent secondary moves out of this low block series of moves as well. In the highlight video you'll see him do this against Yao Ming, Nene Hilario, Andrew Bynum, Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, and others.

They say "he's not a winner". Remember, Kevin Garnett didn't win on that Minnesota team, and Paul Pierce didn't win on that Boston team either. Both teams were downright bad. Let's see what he can do with an all-pro PG and supporting cast.

Don't rule out Matthews either. Long-term a strong argument could be made for him. Next year AK is gone. A backcourt trio of Matthews, Miles and GoHay is pretty great. People say that Matthews is a dime a dozen guy, and the Jazz can replace him. I respectfully disagree. The Jazz have been searching for a Bruce Bowen type player since Flyin Bryan Russell left. They've tried a ton of guys, and Matthews fit the need perfectly. Looking at this year, it doesn't make a ton of sense. Looking beyond this year, it does make sense...and it makes AK's valuable expiring contract more expendable midseason if they decide to take that route.

Denver Implosion?

2010-04-20T10:15:00.002-06:00

It sounds like there is some real problems brewing in the Denver locker room. No doubt you've read that many of the nuggets players have turned against Chauncey Billups of late. ESPN, SI and other national NBA news sources have written that Nugget players almost take offense to Billups trying to be their "leader". Billups seems to have lost the respect of his teammates. Certainly, last night didn't help. Besides the fact that Billups missed three 3-point shots in the final minute, and split a crucial pair of free throws despite being a career 90% FT shooter, the final play of the game that Dantley drew up was for Lawson to get the ball and push as fast as he could, then kick to a teammate. Billups' response? "There's no way I wasn't going to get the ball in my hands that last play. In that situation, you put the ball in the hands of your best player and let him go." The result was a running high arcing jumper that bounced off the rim and really never had a chance. Later, Billups' tone changed a bit when he claimed that he didn't know the play was drawn up to go to Lawson. Maybe he wasn't listening. In any case, all scenarios point to more trouble inside the Nuggets lockerroom than the general public is seeing.

I like our chances in game 3. My only concern is the stink Denver is making over Miles and Matthews "grabbing, pulling and pushing" Carmelo Anthony as soon as he crosses half court. If those guys get in foul trouble, it could be precarious. Nonetheless, I like our chances.

So Long, NCAA Tournament of 64. Welcome, 96 team NCAA Tournament?

2010-04-07T12:04:00.004-06:00

The NCAA extended its annual basketball tournament to a field of 64 teams in 1995. Since that time, no changes have been made to what many believe is the greatest event in all of sports (excluding the expansion to 65 teams which is simply not worthy of mention).

NCAA executives are meeting this week to discuss the possibility likelihood of expansion.

The proposed format for the new mega-tournament is 96 teams, an increase of 31 teams. Seeds 1-8 in each region would receive first-round byes. The remaining teams would form the opening round of competition, seeded 1-16, with familiar seeding matchups being played (it’s easier to think of the bottom 16 beeing seeded 1-16 than 9-24). Winners from the opening round would advance to play the waiting seeds of 1-8. Essentially, NCAA execs want to combine the NIT with the NCAA tournament, to form the new mega-tournament.

[Flash Forward to selection Sunday 2011]
“In the East bracket, Southern division, Atlanta region, the boys from Jackson State will receive the 24th seed”.

And many teams felt it was demeaning to be named the 16th seed.

Initial feedback to expansion ideas are hugely negative from the general public, with nearly 90% of fans opposed to expansion. NCAA coaches appear to be somewhat split on the concept.

Why mess with a good thing? Well, the NCAA did feel it was necessary to change One Shining Moment this year, another decision that did not go over well.
Initially, my own thoughts on the subject were extremely negative, borderline violent. March is the greatest month of the year for a basketball fan, and recently it seems to be the only month of the year for College Basketball to get any significant attention from the general public. I set out determined to prove to myself how ridiculous expansion would be…what I found however was mixed results.

DISCLAIMER: I am an avid basketball fan, and will watch most anything the NCAA throws in front of me come March (NIT or NCAA). The casual fan who watches only the opening days of the NCAA tournament to see how their brackets are doing may see things differently.

I’ve taken the liberty of manually compiling a mock bracket for a 96 team NCAA tournament. You can also find a mock bracket with team logos here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/13165827?tag=coverlist_active;coverlist_footer. Unfortunately there are so many teams, it seems half of the logos are not recognizable to even a familiar eye.

In seeding these brackets, I used seeds 1-12 from the traditional bracket (the last at-large bids were seeded 12). Then seeds 13-16 were thrown in depending on how close teams were to earning at large bids.

{SEE TRADITIONAL BRACKET ONLINE}

{SEE MOCK BRACKET OF 96 TEAMS} - If you are having trouble viewing this bracket, email me at thesaltpalace@gmail.com or bsutefan@hotmail.com and I can email you the brackets with team names written out.

Initial thoughts based when comparing to traditional 64 team bracket:
- Seeds 1-4: More difficult to advance due to higher quality first round opponents
- Seeds 5-8: Easier to advance. What was normally an even matchup (7 vs 10, 6 vs 11, 8 vs 9, or even 5 vs 12), now has a higher seeded team with fresh legs playing against a team that played 2 days prior. The difference between an 8 and a 9 seed becomes ENORMOUSLY important.
- Seeds 9-12: Harder to advance beyond 64. Playing on tired legs may prove to be too much to ask from a team that must exert all energy to overcome an NCAA regular. Underdogs would also lose preparation time in putting together the perfect game plan for a first round upset.
- Seeds 13-16: Actually proves to be much better for these teams. Historically, you 1 out of 16 games featuring these teams may advance per year. 2010 was the exception to the rule. These teams would now be playing an NIT team for the right to move on to the round of 64…a feat seemingly much more possible than Arkansas Pine-Bluff knocking off Kentucky.

Having seen what the 2010 NCAA tournament would have looked like, suspicion and uncertainty may be creeping into your mind. In fairness to the NCAA, let us offer some pros and cons to both sides of the discussion.

Pro: A 96 team tournament theoretically would provide additional financial benefit in a difficult economy.
Con: An entire industry of bracketology and NCAA tournament challenges would diminish and potentially disappear. Filling out a 96 team bracket would be more of a task than most people are willing to tackle.

Pro: A 96 team tournament would be more inclusive to bubble teams.
Con: A “diluted” pool of teams would lose the interest of the common casual basketball fan.

Pro: By including more teams in a 96 team field, less coaches would be fired as a result of missing the NCAA tournament 2 out of 3 years.
Con: If a coach cannot get his team into a 96 team field, maybe he deserves to be fired…or at least this is what schools and fans may use as logic when termination of coaches shoots through the roof.

Pro: A 96 team field may provide better matchups in the round of 64
Con: A 96 team tournament may eliminate the small dog vs big dog contests, which is essentially at the heart of current NCAA tournament success.

Pro: More games = more viewers = more money
Con: Tougher matchups for higher seeded teams (1-4) means more early exits. Historically, when higher seeded teams don’t advance, viewership and TV ratings for late round games suffer.

Pro: All Conferences send their regular season championship to the Big Big Dance, even if they lose in their Conference Tournament (2 teams might get in)
Con: Conference Tournaments may lose interest, which is why Athletics Directors and Conference Commissioners are opposing the expansion idea.
Another Con: Some conferences don’t have a conference tournament simply to ensure the best team from their conference gets their lone bid. Will these conferences now add a conference tournament simply to get a chance at a second team in the field? Multiple small conferences with 2 bids each may further dilute the 96 team field…a concern that is already widely shared.

Pro: Big Conference teams that face hugely difficult competition week in, week out, will no longer be punished for being in a big conference (when they are likely better than many of the 15 and 16 seeds). These bubble teams from big conferences will also get into the tournament.
Con: A 96 team tournament will further promote big conference dominance (when college basketball was recently trending towards parity). Sure, more top seeded teams will lose in the rounds of 64 and 32, but teams seeded 9 or below will struggle much much more to reach the round formerly known as the Sweet 16.

Pro: All matchups will be between more evenly matched teams. Examples: Arkansas Pine-Bluff vs Louisville for the right to play 8 seeded Cal, and North Carolina vs William & Mary (both in NIT) for the right to play top seeded Duke. Duke vs UNC in the round of 64 would be a much better game to watch than Duke vs Ark P-B.
Con: All school and coaching records would become greatly contaminated. Take Dave Rose (Head Coach at BYU) for example. Dave Rose has an NCAA coaching record of 1-4, losing some tough first round matchups as an 8 seed, 9 seed, and losing a second round matchup vs #2 seeded Kansas State in 2010. Compare Dave Rose’s coaching resume to that of George Ivory of Arkansas Pine-Bluff (I don’t mean to keep picking on Ark PB, it is just happening). Ivory won the worthless play-in game in 2010 between the #64 and #65 ranked teams only to be annihilated by Duke in the round of 64. Ivory’s coaching record is 1-1. Each of these play-in games would count toward the record books for NCAA tournament victories/losses. The record books would either be thrown away or fully marked with asterisks.

I’m sure there are many more pros and cons that I am missing. But the bottom line is this. The NCAA tournament of 64 teams is the greatest event in all of sports. Expansion to 96 teams is not a good idea. The impact will be negative, and will be felt more in 10 years when the tournament is fighting for relevancy, than in 2012 when fans are interested to see how the tournament will shake down.

Prior to doing this research I was 100% against expansion. Now, I’m 60-40 against it…and I’m an avid basketball fan. Reality is the NCAA will probably keep my interest. But as for bracket challenges, and viewership from the casual observer, the NCAA shouldn’t count on much support.

Summer of 2010 - DANGER! STAY AWAY!

2010-02-19T11:46:00.001-07:00

The Summer of 2010 will be the most anticipated free agency period in the history of the NBA. Superstars like LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire, and Carlos Boozer are among the summer’s premier players available. Anticipating the possibility of adding an Elite level player, it seems half of the league has cleared enough space to at least make a run at one or more of these players. More teams are also expected to clear space before the free agency period by releasing players, buying out contracts, and completing draft day trades (player for pick). The Draft is held in June, Free Agency opens in July.

Here is a list of teams who have made themselves players in the sweepstakes:

Room for 2 max players:
Miami Heat
New York Knicks

Room for 1 max player:
New Jersey Nets
Chicago Bulls
Washington Wizards
Sacramento Kings
Los Angeles Clippers
Minnesota Timberwolves

Everything seems to be lining up for some teams to cash in on premiere talent that isn’t normally available via free agency right? WRONG! In reality, 2 or 3 teams MIGHT cash in and score big. The rest of the teams mentioned above will be in scramble mode. I believe the exact opposite of many of the General Managers in the NBA. I would absolutely avoiding this summer’s free agent market. Here’s why:

1. Overpaying to fill a roster
Let me throw the following scenario out on the table:
- LeBron James wins an NBA championship in Cleveland, and re-signs with the Cavs
- Dwayne Wade re-signs with the Heat
- Chris Bosh signs with the Miami Heat

Under this scenario there would be 8 teams remaining with max money to spend on non-max free agents. In 2009, Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and other cashed in on a very poor free agent market when they were deemed (the best players available). Ask Detroit how this has worked out for them.

2. Restricted Free Agents
I’m going to take my scenario one step further now. Everything above has taken place, along with the next signings:
- Amare Stoudemire signs with the New York Knicks
- Carlos Boozer signs with the Chicago Bulls
- Joe Johnson resigns with the Atlanta Hawks

Now there are 7 teams still left with max money to spend, without any max quality players left. I think it is safe to assume that nobody is going to give David Lee max money just because they can, but when teams clean house to make themselves players in this market, there is a sense of obligation to use that cap space on the best players available. Take for example Rudy Gay and Luis Scola. Both are very good players, and may be considered among the best remaining players available. Both however are restricted free agents in 2010. Would the Clippers offer Rudy Gay $13M a year to fill their need for a SF? They overpaid for Baron Davis. Would New Jersey pay Louis Scola $14M a year because they are the worst team in the history of the NBA and can’t do nothing?

I predict a bidding war over these second and third tier players…especially with the Restricted Free Agents. Watch for teams to make horrid offers out of desperation for guys like Rudy Gay, Luis Scola, etc. (see Washington, New York, and New Jersey)

3. Collective Bargaining Agreement
Adding more fuel to the fire. Max contract amounts are sure to come down with this next collective bargaining agreement, and duration will shorten as well. What that means is that players like Rudy Gay, Luis Scola, David Lee (the overpaid from 2010 FAs) will be on a similar pay scale to teams with cap space in 2-3 years. Let’s say the Nuggets re-sign Carmelo Anthony in 2011 for the new max contract at $15 (the same salary that Rudy Gay ends up at with the Clippers). The Clippers will be trying to play on the same playing field as the Nuggets, with their new highest paid players being paid the same amount (Anthony and Gay). Under this scenario, the Clippers would be in the cellar for another 10 years before they get another chance to get out.

In conclusion, I predict the summer of 2010 to be the defining summer of the next decade. Whoever lands LeBron will be a big winner, and if Miami can lure another max quality player to pair with DWade, they will be a big winner. The rest will lose out big time over the next decade.

Rather than investing in the 2010 sweepstakes, teams should be investing in future drafts (cheap talent will be a necessity under the new CBA). Teams with max space available, and no real shot at Wade or LeBron should pull out of the sweepstakes by signing 1 or 2 year contracts, and tackle the beast in a 2013 under a much friendlier collective bargaining agreement…Which I want to add, positions the Jazz perfectly for the next decade.

Facing a slippery sloap

2010-01-06T13:33:00.001-07:00

Problems:
1 – Leadership – Lack toughness, Poor road performance, and bad losses to bad teams
2 – Defensive strength – inability to win games when FG% is low, poor transition defense, and poor interior shot blocking
3 – Offensive woes – High differential between FG at home and road, inconsistent production outside top two scorers, lack second playmaker allowing teams to double team Williams.
4 – Financial Problems – High salaries, not performing to contract

Diagnosis:
The major money players on this team are going to be those at whom the primary analysis is placed.
Andrei Kirilenko
Deron Williams
Carlos Boozer
Mehmet Okur
While there are other players contributing to the success or lack of success of the team, it’s hard to complain about CJ Miles (example) when he only makes $3.5 million, while Andrei Kirilenko (example) is worth the equivalent of 5 CJ Miles.
Andrei Kirilenko:
AK is unquestionably the source of the problem on this team…not because of his lack of offensive production, but rather because of the financial burden he places on the team. $17M for AK causes financial strain, causing each player to be under a heavy microscope. If this team did not have AK’s salary on the books this year, the Jazz would currently be $12M under the salary cap. Rather than be talking about a Carlos Boozer for garbage trade, the Jazz brass would be positioned as one of very few teams with the cap space to absorb salary from a team looking to drop a high paid but high producing player (Like Michael Redd and the Bucks for example). But no use crying over spilled milk. AK is what he is, and the only question the Jazz have is how to rid themselves of his contract. They have 3 options; 1-Trade him this year for expiring contracts, 2-Trade him next year as an expiring contract and steal a long-term piece away from a desperate team (see Jazz and Boozer), or 3-Let his contract run out in 2 years and let yourself benefit from his contract coming off of the books.
Deron Williams:
DWill has been struggling of late, and as such has been the focus of much criticism, primarily toward his defense and turnovers. Looking back on DWill’s career, turnovers have been most apparent either when the team was injury strapped, or in a scoring slump. Take your pick, but DWill is clearly trying to overcompensate for his team and forcing the issue. Either way, the outcome is not great. Defensively DWill has looked strong at times, and downright awful at other times. But that’s the reality of the NBA; NBA players for the most part should be able to create or get to the hoop in a one-on-one situation. College coaches design plays to get layups or open jumpshots (Jerry Sloan also). NBA coaches design plays to get players in one-on-one situations, and let the players do the rest (Jim Boylen also…why is this backward?). I would argue that any NBA point guard or wing defender outside of the absolute elite defenders cannot defend a quick penetrating guard without an inside presence to intimidate and/or force the player to settle for outside jumpshots. While DWill is not exempt from criticism, 95% of NBA players would look bad in his shoes (Ronnie Price looks downright awful at times defensively as well, and he’s been known as a defensive hustle player by many NBA scouts). Perhaps the defensive criticism should be redirected elsewhere?
Carlos Boozer:
It pains me to say this, but Boozer has been the Jazz most consistent performer this season. Without his scoring and rebounding, I dare say the Jazz would be looking at a top 10 lottery pick (even with Millsap as a fill in). Now reality is Boozer is a very good player, not quite elite, but near the border. I’m sure if the Jazz were in a financially appropriate position (thank you AK), the Jazz would have extended Boozer’s contract long ago, and this whole drama would never have happened. Unfortunately money speaks loudly to Boozer, and he will be gone after this year. So, the Jazz have two options with Boozer; 1-Trade him and get something in return for him…can you really just let a player this good get away? Or 2- Take the extra money from his expiring contract and save for better times. The second option will keep you in the playoff hunt, but the first pretty much assures you a lottery selection. It’s the classic question of whether it is better to have a very good Boozer for 1 year, or 2 very average players for 3 years? Here’s another question to ponder…would Boozer really look as bad defensively if he were next to a defensive big man who took the tough defensive assignments each night and covered for mistakes when needed?
Mehmet Okur:
If you refer back to my original opinions on why this team is struggling so greatly (see “Problems”), Mehmet Okur’s name should appear next to many of these. Memo has an absolutely awful differential between home and road shooting percentages…which is more disturbing as he is now the “veteran” player on this team. Granted he is a good teammate and community member, but he is below average defensively, and a 1 trick pony offensively. Basically he’s on your team because his 1 trick is so unique…however that 1 trick only shows up in Salt Lake, and rarely on the road. His extension may also prove to be the next crippling move by the Jazz.
2010-11 Season Outlook:
Right now, the Jazz are looking at 8 players under contract (counting the Knicks pick the Jazz own in the draft, and their own pick that is lottery protected). The Jazz are also currently about $700k under the luxury tax. This means the Jazz need to find a way to replace the key players departing (Boozer, Korver, Matthews), while only having the NBA minimum/veteran’s exception to offer…AND they are still paying taxes on that team, which if you ask me looks very, very, very average. The Miller family has always said they would be willing to pay short-term luxury taxes if it brought success on the court, but would they be willing to pay those taxes for an average player?
What the Jazz should do:
Boozer - Prior to researching the luxury tax (which I haven’t mentioned is dropping by approximately $8.5M next season), I thought the Jazz would be stable financially if Boozer walked. I find this is not true. The Jazz MUST make a move this season, if only for next season. That move may be Boozer in exchange for some younger players and expiring contracts, but those young players will likely be available by Free Agent during the summer of madness anyway. The Jazz should seek to re-sign Boozer first, and unfortunately, if they are unsuccessful in doing so, the Jazz should simply let his contract expire at the end of the year. No Boozer trade for the Jazz. Sorry.
Okur – I firmly believe that if you remove contracts from consideration, and simply look at the Jazz roster and depth chart, Mehmet Okur will be the player that would be moved. He is simply the primary cause of poor production from a leadership standpoint (team veteran), from a road production standpoint (biggest differential between home and road FG% from contributing players), and from a defensive standpoint (he makes every player on the floor worse defensively, despite making a better effort this year). However, his contract is not very movable right now, and he will likely stay put. The Jazz will probably seek answers to my diagnosed problems from other incoming players not currently on the roster.
Kirilenko – The Jazz should move Kirilenko. I know he is arguably the best defensive player on the team, but he cripples the team financially…next year moreso than this year. I’ve always sworn that the Jazz should keep Kirilenko for 1 more year, then trade him as an expiring contract. That would be the only way the Jazz got equal (likely better) value for Kirilenko in a trade. The Jazz should trade Kirilenko for an aging leader, and expiring contracts. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jazz had to give up a young asset in the trade to get somebody to take him. Unfortunately that may be someone like Matthews, Brewer or Miles. Trading Kirilenko is the only way the Jazz MIGHT become competitive again next year…and it might be the only way the Jazz get any chance of re-signing Boozer for next year.
Go Jazz!

The Kirilenko Dilemma

2009-07-09T19:10:00.006-06:00

Let’s start with a trivia question:

How much money will the Jazz pay for Andrei Kirilenko this season?

$15 Million?

$17 Million?

$20 Million?

The answer is $35 Million.

…Now wait a minute…isn’t Andrei Kirilenko set to make nearly $17M next season? In terms of salary… yes. In actuality, his cost to the franchise is much, much more. The Jazz are looking at $13 Million in luxury taxes, and an additional $5 Million in lost revenue. $17M + $13M + $5M = $35 Million.

This whole financial crisis the Jazz currently face can be directly linked back to Andrei Kirilenko. Never mind his lackluster production and sensitive skins, the Jazz have inescapably tied themselves to Kirilenko’s freakishly absurd contract for 2 more seasons.

Well, critics might argue that it’s only one year of luxury tax until Boozer’s contract comes off the books, and the Jazz will be OK. Bull Crap. $97 Million in real salary cost next season is unacceptable and has the potential to sink a small market franchise like the Jazz, no matter how “stable” they view themselves.

So the real question for the Jazz is how do they get rid of Andrei Kirilenko?

There are 3 options to this shiver creating nightmare:

#1 – Let Kirilenko play out his contract, underperform, and cost the team millions of dollars in luxury tax.

Consequences of #1 – The Jazz are bound financially this year and next year. The Jazz make the playoffs but fail to earn home court advantage, and thus l

ose in the first round both years. Failure to make the second round of the playoffs will cost the Jazz an additional $1 Million in potential revenue for every playoff game they miss. Kirilenko is set to cry at least twice more after a game. Jerry Sloan will rip AK a THIRD A-hole for trying to do too much outside the offense, 2 vacations will be planned during the last week of the season for the second round of the playoffs, and Kirilenko will never be happier despite his team being very mediocre.

#2 – Trade Kirilenko this year for cap relief this year.

Consequences of #2 – Though still facing luxury tax issues from returning contracts, relief from Kirilenko’s contract one year in advance would be very welcome. This would also allow the Jazz some flexibility in trading Carlos Boozer for a long-term high level player, rather than a role player with an expiring contract (see Joel Pryzbylla under “Expiring Role Player”). I believe this is the direction the Jazz would pursue if the Rip Hamilton for Carlos Boozer trade were to occur. Keep in mind the Jazz have a sure lottery pick next season from the Knicks, potentially in the top 5.

#3 – Keep Kirilenko this year, trade him next year when his contract is expiring for a high level player. The side piece here is to either trade Boozer now for cap relief, or let his contract expire.

Consequences of #3 - The positive side about this option is the Jazz would most definitely receive a very high quality player in return for Kirilenko’s expiring contract (an Emeka Okafor + expiring, or a sign and trade for one of the many free agents on the market like Joe Johnson or Michael Redd). The negative side about waiting to trade Kirilenko is we have to watch him all year. The Jazz also would face the major luxury tax problems this season still.

Kirilenko’s value will unquestionable increase significantly next season when he is set to expire. Would you be willing to sell your Zion’s bank stock for $12.00 per share right now knowing that next year the stock is going to be worth $20.00 per share? I believe Kirilenko’s value is set to increase by 50%-75% next season.

Again, the wildcard in this situation is the lottery pick the Jazz own next season, though you’ll never hear O’Connor mention that outside of Deron Williams, that is the most valuable asset the Jazz own.

Who knows, maybe we can trade his Masha’s “exception” clause. That would certainly net us more value than AK’s production at SF.

Opt In, Opt In, and Opt In

2009-06-14T19:01:00.000-06:00

Opt out or opt in? That is the question. While there are many answers to this question, the best answer to this question for the Utah Jazz is opt in. Opt in, opt in, and opt in. Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Kyle Korver all should opt in for the remaining year of their contracts with the Jazz.

The main goal of any organization is to maximize assets, while minimizing liabilities (debts and expenses). NBA organizations are no different. Take a look at some of the most successful organizations in recent years (including major turnarounds):

Boston Celtics: Built a significant share of assets, used those assets to bring in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. The Celtics went from one of the worst teams in the NBA, to NBA champions, and arguably the best team in the NBA when healthy.

San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs have been more successful drafting late in the first round, than most teams in the lottery. Drafting players and keeping them overseas only to have their stock rise upon arrival to the US. Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker are resonating examples of the Spurs philosophy.

Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers built a supporting cast for Kobe Bryant out of mid to high level role players. They used the asset of Kwame Brown’s expiring contract to land Pau Gasol, and they acquired and developed two nice assets in Shannon Brown and Trevor Ariza. Again, that seems to be working well for the Lakers.

Portland

Trailblazers: The Blazers were an absolute train wreck only a few years ago. That’s when the organization changed their philosophy and started to acquire draft picks and young talent. With the drafting of Brandon Roy, look for the Blazers to use these young assets to acquire a proven piece to pair with Roy in bringing the Blazers back to the highest stage of the NBA.

With the Economy in the pits, the most valuable assets in the NBA next season will be expiring contracts (NBA superstars excluded; LeBron, Kobe, DWade, and a few others). If the economy doesn’t rapidly turn around, half of the teams in the NBA will continue to bleed money. The longer these organizations bleed, the more desperate they will get. Unless a team is a contender by December, the trade deadline will arrive with many organizations desperate to move players and save money…enter Boozer, Okur and Korver.

Another reason why the expiring contracts would be valuable, is the 2010 off season. The Jazz would never be a major player in attracting top tie free agents, but other teams would love to clear cap space just to be in the picture.

On the flip side, if the economic struggles continue beyond this season, Andrei Kirilenko’s expiring contract will be far more valuable in two years than it is right now. In fact, I would argue that in terms of asset value, it would be more valuable for the Jazz if Andrei Kirilenko did NOT play a single game next season and trade him next season, then it would be for the Jazz to trade Andrei Kirilenko for say, a lower lottery pick or a couple of decent players.

Teams such as Sacramento, Golden State, Phoenix, Houston, San Antonio, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Indiana, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, New York, New Jersey, Charlotte, Miami, Atlanta, Washington and Denver all could be looking to acquire expiring contracts if the season turns in a negative direction.

With Korver, Boozer and Okur returning to the Jazz next season, the Jazz would have near $30M in expiring contracts in 2010, and near $23M expiring in 2011. In theory, the Jazz could acquire 2 high level stars in return for these players, possibly 3.

Don’t forget the Jazz own the rights to the New York Knicks draft pick in 2010, a draft considered to be significantly stronger than this year’s draft.

Opt in, opt in, and opt in. That’s the best case scenario for the jazz. The jazz need to focus on increasing their asset value. Having Boozer walk away now, would be like selling a stock at a 4 year low. Hold the stock, know that the stock will increase significantly next year.

Motivation of a Champion: Will to Win or Hatred of Defeat?

2009-06-02T01:39:00.006-06:00

Before we get to the post, let me welcome our readers back for another Utah Jazz offseason. Captain Obvious would state that this will be one of the most eventful offseasons in the history of our beloved franchise.

Let’s start with the Eastern Conference Finals. After suffering a lopsided defeat in g

ame 6, LeBron James exited the court without participating in the traditional congratulations and post-series back patting ceremonies. After the confetti had settled, James was a no-show in the media hall for interviews. Nothing James could have said or done in the press conference could have spoken as loudly as his noticeable absence from league mandatory media relations.

James’ controversial reaction to defeat has raised a question in my mind: What motivates a champion? Is it a player’s will to win? Or is it the hatred of defeat what puts a player/team/coach on top of the sporting world?

Jazz coach Jerry Sloan subscribes to the concept of hating to lose. Did you know that as an NBA player, Jerry Sloan would pin up a picture of the opposing player he had been assigned to defend in his locker prior to every game? I wonder if he carries a picture of Phil Jackson in his wallet to remind him of how far short his team has ended the past two seasons? These days Phil’s awkward face may have been replaced by a Free Drink coupon to Texas Roadhouse.

Speaking of the zen master, Phil Johnson subscribes to a different theory than Coach Sloan. Johnson believes what fuels a championship is a superstar’s will to win. Think positive, stay focused, give the ball to Kobe, and get out of his way…is there a better recipe for success in today’s NBA? If so, try to tell a guy with a championship ring for every one of his cat’s lives.

Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and Kobe Bryant all were praised for their off-season workout regimes. Each player enjoyed the highest levels of success during their NBA careers. All suffered defeat before reaching and winning the NBA finals. Certainly work ethic played a big part for each of these players, but what fueled these players to work so hard all the time? Was it the feeling of defeat each suffered in college and the NBA? It could reasonably be assumed that these players never wanted to feel that sting of defeat again, and would do anything to overcome defeat. Or was it the ability to cope with defeat? It is also reasonable to assume that before a player can play at the highest level, they can’t be afraid to make mistakes. This belief is better suited with the belief that a champion’s motivation is fueled by a will to win, even if it means losing along the way.

Let’s return to Saturday Night’s Eastern Conference Finals. The NBA’s golden child exited the court and arena noticeably frustrated. The competitive side of me wants to love the fact that LeBron truly hated to be associated with defeat, recognizing that I might do the same thing. One of my biggest pet peeves is w

atching players burst out in smiles and laughter the second after the final horn sounds. The NBA would be much more entertaining if there were more guys like LeBron James and Jerry Sloan with pictures of the enemy pinned to their lockers.

On the opposite side, Cavalier fans should be worried. Is the pressure of being the anointed one getting to LeBron? Was the shock of an unfulfilled prophecy too much to bare? While the reigning MVP did not shy away from taking the big shot (make or miss), his post-game behavior confirmed to onlookers why James has not yet won a title, the king has not yet learned to accept defeat.

My conclusion: LeBron is at least 2 years away from his first of many NBA championships. Once James learns that success isn’t about playing in the biggest NBA city (New York City in 2010), or becoming a billionaire (publicly declared), at that point, James will be mature enough to win his championships. Until then, living up to the labels the NBA is forcing upon him will be a monumental task. If James does choose to skip town, basketball fans everywhere may miss out on the greatest athlete professional sports has ever seen.

1998 Jazz vs. 2008 Jazz

2008-09-16T09:03:00.018-06:00

Training camp opens in about 2 weeks. We'll be releasing a series of season previews here pretty soon, but in the meantime, we'll continue into the realm of the hypothetical. This week's topic - the 1997-98 Utah Jazz vs. the 2007-08 Utah Jazz, particularly the following areas:

1. How the 1998 Jazz would fare in the 2008 NBA.
2. How the 2008 Jazz would fare in the 1998 NBA.
3. What the outcome would be of a Western Conference Finals Series between the two teams.

Let's take a look at our rosters and rotations:

1998 Utah Jazz
Starters:
PG - John Stockton - 12 ppg, 8 apg, 1.4 spg, 2.5 TO, 53% FG, 43% 3PT, 29 MIN
SG - Jeff Hornacek - 14.2 ppg, 4.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 48% FG, 44% 3PT
SF - Bryon Russell - 9 ppg, 3 rpg, 1.1 spg, 43% FG, 34% 3PT
PF - Karl Malone - 27 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 1.2 spg, 53% FG, 76% FT, 10.2 FTA
C - Greg Ostertag - 4.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.1 bpg, 48% FG

Key Reserves:
Shandon Anderson - 8.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.8 spg, 53% FG, 21.9% 3PT
Howard Eisley - 7.7 ppg, 4.2 apg, 2 TO, 44% FG, 41% 3PT
Antoine Carr - 5.7 ppg, 2 rpg, 46.5% FG, 0.8 blk

2008 Utah Jazz
Starters:
PG - Deron Williams - 18.8 ppg, 10.5 apg, 1.1 spg, 51% FG, 39.5% 3PT, 37.3 MIN
SG - Ronnie Brewer - 12 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.7 spg, 27.5 MIN, 56% FG, 22% 3PT
SF - Andrei Kirilenko - 11 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.2 spg, 1.5 blk, 4 apg, 51% FG, 38% 3PT
PF - Carlos Boozer - 21.1 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 55% FG
C - Mehmet Okur - 14.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2 apg, .4 blk, 45% FG, 39% 3PT

Key Reserves: SF - Matt Harpring - 8.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.1 apg, .6 spg, 50% FG, 20% 3PT
SG - Kyle Korver - 9.8 ppg, 1.4 apg, .4 stl, .5 blk, 2 rpg, 47% FG, 39% 3PT
PF - Paul Millsap - 8.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1 apg, .9 spg, .9 blk, 50% FG

Head-to-Head Statistical Comparisons
*when comparing teams, it should be noted that the 2008 Jazz average significantly more possessions per game than the 1998 Jazz. This would adjust specific statistics per game, but not percentages.

1998 Jazz - 101 ppg, 41 rpg, 25 apg, 7.9 spg, 5 bpg, 15.4 TO, 49% FG, 37.2% 3PT, 77.3% FT
2008 Jazz - 106.2 ppg, 41 rpg, 26.4 apg, 8.7 spg, 4.3 blk, 14.6 TO, 49.7% FG, 37.2% 3PT, 75.9% FT

Thoughts: At first glance it would appear that the 2008 Jazz were a much better offensive team (ppg, apg, etc), but in reality both teams are freakishly similar. If you were to adjust possessions to make teams equal, both teams would have very similar ppg and very similar apg. This is also made apparent in the percentages where both teams average exactly 37.2% from behind the ark. 2008 holds a very slight advantages in FG% while 1998 has a higher FT%. Both offset each other in my eyes. The 1998 Jazz would be considered a better rebounding team per possession, but the 2008 Jazz have a far better TO margin. Interesting.

1998 Opponent - 94.4 ppg, 36.5 rpg, 14.1 TO, 44% FG, 35.7% 3PT
2008 Opponent - 99.3 ppg, 37 rpg, 15.9 TO, 46.1% FG, 35.7% 3PT

Thoughts: Again you might think at first glance that the 98 team was far more efficient defensively, but the numbers are slightly deceptive. If you were to adjust the points per game so that the number of possessions were equal, we'd see a very similar result. The same logic applies to rebounding (though this statistic would show the 2008 Jazz giving up fewer rebounds per possession. This directly contradicts the stats previously mentioned as if there are simply fewer overall rebounds per possession nowadays. Maybe there are more fouls?). TOs per possession also adjusts to similar values. FG percentage does give the defensive edge to the 1998 Jazz by a difference of nearly 2%. How strange is the similarity in 3 PT%. It would appear as if we are STRONGLY underestimating the impact Jerry Sloan's system has on his teams.

The NBA of 1998

The 1997-98 Utah Jazz finished atop the Midwest Division and the Western Conference with a record of 62-20 (tied with Chicago for best in NBA). The Western Conference was relatively week that year, with an average winning percentage of .471. The Midwest Division was even worse with an average winning percentage of .443. The 1998 Jazz topped TNT's analysts (Barkley, Kenny Smith and crew) 3 games to 2. In the second round, the 1998 Jazz defeated Avery Johnson, David Robinson and the rest of the San Antonio Spurs 4 games to 1. In the Western Conference Finals, the Jazz swept Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers in 4 straight games to reach the NBA Finals. The joy was short lived however as Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and the Chicago Bulls defeated the Jazz in 6 games.

How far could the 2008 Jazz have gone in those same playoffs? Considering the conference was significantly weaker, we'll give the 2008 Jazz 3 more wins and a record of 57-25. This would have given the Jazz the 3rd seed in the conference entering the playoffs. As the 3rd seed, the Jazz would face the Minnesota Timberwolves led by Kevin Garnett and Stephon Marbury. The young Garnett would not have been superior (at the time) to the Jazz frontcourt of Boozer and Okur, and Marbury would have been absolutely abused by Deron Williams. DWill averages 30 ppg, 12 apg and the Jazz advance in a 3-game sweep (best of 5 in the first round in 1998).

In the second round, the Jazz would then have faced Shawn Kemp, Gary Payton and the Seattle Supersonics who narrowly advanced. Don't be confused by the name Kemp, at this point Kemp is playing at a level far below his 96 days when he led his team to the NBA finals. Boozer and Millsap go at Kemp all day and keep him either on the bench with fouls, or too winded to be effective. Meanwhile, Gary "the Glove" Payton is effective at keeping DWill's production to a reasonable level. DWill averages 17 ppg and 8 apg, while Boozer goes off for 27 ppg and 13 rpg. The 2008 Jazz overcome a couple of setbacks to advance to the Western Conference Finals in 6 games.

In the Western Conference Finals the 2008 Jazz face a team that sent them packing from the future 2008 playoffs. The 1998 Kobe isn't nearly the puzzle piece he would develop into, but the 1998 Shaquille O'Neal is also a beast unlike any they would see in 2008. Shaq and the Lakers bully their way to an early 2-0 lead in the series. The Jazz however return home to a Rockin' Delta Center (later to be re-named Energy Solutions Arena) and bounce back to even the series at 2-2 behind the strong play of Deron Williams. The Jazz were successfully able to draw Shaq away from the basket using Mehmet Okur's long-range shooting. Game 5 goes back to LA where a second-year pro named Derek Fisher hits a game winning 3 pointer at the buzzer to win the game for the Lakers 102-100. Game 6 in Salt Lake City was an ugly game, where Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Jarron Collins and Paul Millsap all foul out of the game against O'Neal. The Lakers held the lead until the final minutes when the Jazz were able to take the lead. O'Neal misses 6 of 6 free throws down the stretch, and Kobe Bryant air-balls two consecutive 3 pointers, one to give the Lakers the lead, and one to tie the game at the buzzer. The series goes back to LA tied the decisive game 7. The Lakers come out firing. Kobe Bryant goes off for 10 in the first quarter, and "fast Eddie" Jones puts in 8. The Lakers end the first quarter up 32-22. The second quarter starts similar to the first with the Lakers extending the lead to 15. That's when the Jazz bench goes off against the Lakers bench, scoring 8 unanswered points to go into half-time down 55-48. The third quarter is a battle with the Lakers looking to establish Shaquille O'Neal on the low block. To this point the Lakers have played a fast-paced game, and Shaq has only managed 10 points on 4-5 shooting and 2-4 from the line. Unlike game 6, the Jazz do not immediately foul Shaq. Rather, they send a double team with Kirilenko who would finish the game with 4 blocks. Shaq grows frustrated while Lakers Coach Dale Harris fails to adjust. The Jazz tie up the game after 3 at 76-76. The fourth quarter starts with the a couple of quick Laker threes while the Jazz struggle from the foul-line. The Lakers move up by 5 midway through the period when the Jazz hit 3 pointers on 3 consecutive possessions (2 by Korver, 1 by Okur). That quickly, the Jazz take a 3 point lead and force a Laker timeout with 4 minutes to go. The Lakers and Jazz would exchange blows for the next three minutes and the score sits tied with 1 minute remaining. The Jazz keep the ball in the hands of Deron Williams who runs the clock down to 45 seconds before attacking. DWill comes off a high screen and roll and attacks the paint...the defense follows. DWill kicks the ball back out to Mehmet Okur who shoots from long range and hits what appears to be a 3 pointer, but the refs only gave him credit for 2 points. The TV replay would show that Okur had his toe on the line, and the refs made the correct call. The Lakers brought the ball back down the floor in hopes of taking a shot near 30 seconds (2 for 1). The ball ends up in the hands of Kobe Bryant who drives and pulls up from 20, but misses the shot. Carlos Boozer grabs the loose ball and is quickly fouled by Shaquille O'Neal...his 6th and final foul of the game. Boozer steps up to the line and hits the first free-throw. As Boozer shoots his second free-throw he lets out a yell as the ball hangs on the rim for a second before falling off the side. The Lakers get the rebound with 20 seconds remaining, and call timeout to set up a final play. The Lakers come out of the timeout with the ball at midcourt in the hands of Kobe Bryant. Kobe runs a screen and roll with reserve big man Elden Campbell before kicking the ball to Derek Fisher on the wing with 5 seconds remaining. Fisher pumpfakes and drives toward the rim. Fisher then sees Boozer help off his man and kicks it to Robert Horry in the corner who barries a 3-pointer at the buzzer...OVERTIME. The dramatics of regulation did not carry over to Overtime however. Without Shaq in the game, the Jazz attack the basket and get up early on back-to-back layups by Williams and Boozer. Meanwhile, Kobe and the Lakers force up a couple of ill-advised long range jumpers to be controlled by the Jazz. With 2 minutes to go, the Jazz find themselves with the ball and a 6 point lead. Jazz coach Jerry Sloan inserts free-throw specialist Kyle Korver back into the game who hits 4 free throws in the final minute to give the Jazz a thrilling overtime victory of 115-106. Deron Williams jumps in celebration with a fist pump while Carlos Boozer catches him in mid air. Jerry Sloan looks torn whether he should be celebrating with his team or fixing his hair which was messed up in the celebration.

The NBA Finals had the Utah Jazz and the Chicago Bulls in Chicago for game 1. The Bulls won games 1 and 2 convincingly by an average margin of 18 points. Michael Jordan average 36 points in front of his home crowd. The 2008 Jazz return to Salt Lake with renewed optimism, having lost only 3 games all season at home, 1 of the 3 to the Bulls. The Jazz jumped on the Bulls early behind the strong play of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer, but found their stars in foul-trouble early in the 3rd quarter after referee Tim Donaghy called a questionable foul on Carlos Boozer. With Boozer and Williams on the bench, the Jazz bench held their own against the Bulls starting rotation. Jordan was having an off shooting day, hitting only 25% of his shots. To start the 4th quarter, the Jazz held a 3 point lead. The Bulls came out behind veteran leadership and playoff experience to take outscore the Jazz 25-15 in the final quarter, placing the 2008 Jazz in a series hole of 3-0. Game 4 was promising for the young 2008 Jazz team however as they bounced back to defeat the Bulls by a score of 108-82. Game 5 was a fight back and forth, but Michael Jordan was ultimately too much for the Jazz defenders. Ronnie Brewer sat out much of the game with foul-trouble, while Jordan scored 55 points on Matt Harpring. The Bulls defeated the Jazz 112-87, to complete the series in 5 games.

Two days after the end of the NBA Finals, Michael Jordan developed a terrible flu and spent much of the day bed-ridden in his home outside of Chicago.

The NBA of 2008

The 2007-08 Utah Jazz finished atop the Northwest Division with a record of 54-28. The NW Division was not exceptionally strong with an average winning percentage of .456. The Western Conference as a whole however was exceptionally strong, with an average winning percentage of .527 (good enough to make the playoffs in 1998).

To keep things equal, we'll apply the same logic to the 1998 Jazz as we did previously to the 2008 Jazz. Due to a significantly more competitive conference, We'll assume that the 1998 Jazz would finish with a record of 59-23, good enough for the top seed in the West.

In the first round of the 2008 Playoffs, our 1998 Utah Jazz squad would be matched up against a division rival in the Denver Nuggets. On paper, this match-up looks competitive. On the hardwood, the 2008 Nuggets have struggled heavily against disciplined opponents. The Nuggets fall behind early, and lose big in the first 2 games at Energy Solutions Arena. Returning to Denver, the Nuggets show revived enthusiasm behind 42 points by Allen Iverson. Game 4 doesn't start well for the Nuggets, and gets worse as Kenyon Martin and JR Smith both are ejected. The Jazz roll to a 112-92 victory and a 3-1 series lead. Returning home for game 5, the veteran Jazz of 1998 show poise to withstand an early run by the Nuggets. Despite 35 points by Carmelo Anthony, the Jazz win 105-97.

In the second round of the 2008 playoffs, the 1998 Jazz face Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs (4th seed). Both teams pound on each other in the game. Karl Malone paces the Jazz with 20 points and 15 rebounds while Tim Duncan puts up similar numbers for the Spurs. John Stockton dishes out 11 assists for the Jazz while Tony Parker struggles to find a rhythm. Manu Ginobli is held to 18 points by Bryon Russell and the Jazz squeek out a 87-82 win. The Spurs wouldn't be held down for long however as they rebound to knock off the Jazz in a thriller in Salt Lake. Spurs coach Greg Popovic is praised for his game to game adjustments as the Spurs hold Karl Malone to only 15 points on 5 for 15 shooting. As the Jazz return to San Antonio, the Jazz come out trying to attack the paint through sharp cuts and crisp passing. Early on the strategy is effective, but after halftime the Jazz just aren't able to knock down outside shots. The Spurs win game 3 by a score of 92-84. Game 4 was a legendary game with both teams exchanging blows. Karl Malone got position early and often against Tim Duncan, drawing him into early foul trouble. In replacing Duncan, Fabricio Oberto just got abused by Malone. Malone finished the game with 38 points and 16 rebounds, as the Jazz pull away late to a 104-92 victory despite shooting poorly from the outside once again. As both teams return to Salt Lake City, Jazz coach Jerry Sloan has his team focused and pressing for physicality. With both teams knowing each other well, game 5 turns ugly quick. Duncan and Malone went at each other all night, each scoring about 20 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. The key for the Jazz lay in their backcourt, and not with John Stockton. Swingmen Bryon Russell and Shandon Anderson absolutely abuse the aging Spurs swingmen. Once again, Hornacek and Stockton struggle from deep, but the Jazz do enough to win the game 88-84. Game 6 returns to San Antonio, and is vastly different than games in the past. Different than the slow, physical games leading up to game 6, the Jazz and Spurs explode for massive offensive production. The Jazz jump out to an early lead in the first quarter 34-31, while the Spurs return to even the score at halftime 56-56. By the end of the third quarter, the Jazz have once again pulled ahead, this time 88-83. The Jazz extend the lead to 10 early in the fourth before the Spurs start to chop away at the lead. With 2 minutes to go, the Jazz lead has dwindled to 108-106. Robert Horry proves a hero for the Spurs as he drills a 3 pointer in the final minute to give the Spurs the lead 111-110. The experience of John Stockton proves too much for Tony Parker, as Stockton extends the defense with the screen and roll, and hits Hornacek with pin-point precision and Hornacek nets a 10 foot floater at the buzzer. Jazz win Game 6 112-111 and take the series 4 games to 2.

In the Western Conference Finals, the 1998 would face familiar faces in familiar uniforms, Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher and the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers prove ready for the Jazz behind coach Phil Jackson's game plan. The Lakers jump out to a big first-half lead on the road in Utah. Jerry Sloan decided not to call a timeout during a 15-2 Laker run. After halftime, John Stockton and Jeff Hornacek take matters into their own hands and combine for 30 points and 15 assists in the second half. Malone never gets into rhythm, and ends up with only 12 points and 6 rebounds. Nevertheless, the Jazz win 95-89. Game 2 the Jazz come out firing on all cylinders. Stockton dishes out 18 assists, Malone scores 28 points and grabs 14 rebounds, and Jeff Hornacek hits 4 three pointers as the Jazz cruise to a 103-92 win in Game 2. Returning to LA, the Lakers come out attacking Malone inside, but Pau Gasol is downright outplayed by the senior Malone. Lamar Odom has not showed up this series and continues to be ineffective. Kobe Bryant is averaging 34 points per game, but its not enough in Game 3 as the Jazz beat the Lakers in LA. Game 4 causes the 1998 Jazz to stumble, despite a low-scoring game by Kobe Bryant. The Lakers have 6 players in double figures led by Kobe Bryant's 18 as the Lakers defeat the Jazz handily in LA. Game 5 is played in the ESA, and that proved to be the difference. A hard fought game all night eventually goes to the tougher team. Kobe Bryant scored over 30 points for the 4th time in the series, but the Lakers still lose 95-87.

The 1998 Jazz enter the NBA finals with experience and determination. Their opponents are Kevin Garnett and the Boston Celtics. The Jazz are also on the road for the first time in the playoffs to open a series. The Celtics take pride in their defensive prowess, but the Jazz are a structured team who is built to pick apart a defense like the Celtics. Game 1 was hard fought, but Celtic emotion pulled out the victory in front of their home crowd 92-85. Paul Pierce leads the Celtics with 21 points. Game 2 the Celtics come out flat. The Jazz pound the ball, and Garnett's athleticism is taken out of the picture as Malone pushes him around the floor. Rajon Rondo looks like a rookie as Stockton explodes for 12 points and 19 assists. Malone finishes with 20 and 10 and the Jazz prevail in Boston, 103-92. The series returns to Utah tied 1-1. In Utah, the Jazz feed off their home crowd and dominate the Celtics 108-72. Celtics Coach Doc Rivers questions his teams toughness, and the Celtics respond with a physical performance in game 4. Garnett holds his ground against Malone and forces him into a poor shooting performance. Hornacek doesn't get the daylight on the outside to get a shot off, and the Celtics force Bryon Russell, Greg Ostertag and John Stockton to beat them...Celtics win an ugly game 77-72. Game 5 is also in Utah, and behind Jerry Sloan's toughness, the Jazz respond like they are in a fistfight. As always, Jerry Sloan's club bruises up Paul Pierce, and Ronnie Brewer effectively shuts down Ray Allen. Garnett struggles against Karl Malone, and the leading scorer for Celtics is Leon Powe. The Jazz win game 5 going away, 92-75. Game 6 returns to Boston and the Jazz come out stale. Fortunately for the Jazz, the Celtics don't look much better. At halftime of this game, the score is only 36-34 in favor of the Celtics. The third quarter gets ugly quick with Malone and Garnett both spending much of the quarter on the bench. For the better part of the quarter, Kendrick Perkins is the highest scoring player for theCeltics, and Bryon Russell is the highest scoring Jazz man. In the 4th quarter, Malone takes over and lives at the line. Garnett ends up fouling out with about 4 minutes left, and Malone is seemingly at the line each time down the floor. With the score close, Malone misses a free throw in the final minute and the Celtics capitalize on a Ray Allen 3 pointer to tie the game. The Jazz can't hold for the final shot, but they do drain the clock down to 20 seconds before calling a timeout. Out of the timeout, the Jazz hit Stockton on the run who pulls up from 15 feet to drain a jumper. The Jazz take the lead 78-76. Boston calls a timeout and draws up a play for Paul Pierce. Paul Pierce is tightly guarded however by Bryon Russell and John Stockton in the corner yet he decides to force up a shot with a few seconds left. The shot misses badly, and the Celtics put back is not in time. The 1998 Jazz are NBA Champions.

Head-to-Head, 1998 Jazz vs. 2008 Jazz
The bottom line in this game matchup, is that the 1998 Jazz have 2 of the greatest players in the history of the game. However, the offensive fire power that the 2008 Jazz possess would keep this series close. Deron Williams vs John Stockton would be a great matchup. Stockton is a tremendous defensive player on the perimeter, but DWill would still produce on offense. The difference here would lie inside. As good as Malone was on offense, he was equally as effective on defense. There is not a single player on the 2008 Jazz that could guard Malone, yet Malone and Ostertag would be effective in containing Boozer. Hornacek is a better piece than any on the 2008 Jazz squad, but the 2008 bench is far more effective than the 1998 bench. Brewer and Kirilenko are better than Russell and Anderson. Mehmet Okur would be a tough matchup for the 1998 Jazz, as Ostertag would opt to play inside. If this were a single game, both teams would have a realistic chance of victory. As a series, the 1998 Jazz take the series in 6.

Pic of the week!

2008-09-07T23:34:00.007-06:00

Who's your daddy?
This Mehmet Okur look-a-like photo was sent in from a loyal reader in the Northwest.

*Photo submissions (with captions) for "Pic of the week" can be submitted via email at thesaltpalace@gmail.com.

Could NBA Players Make It In The NFL?

2008-09-04T10:25:00.031-06:00

With the change of season, sports fans have turned their attention to football, myself included. But true to my roots, a good basketball story still will catch my eye. A recent story about Antonio Gates not only caught my attention, but inspired me to write this post..

Ask most fans who the best TE in the NFL is, and most would answer Antonio Gates. Ask those fans where Gates played college football, and few will respond. The truth is, Gates did not play football in college. Gates excelled on the hardwood leading his college team to the Elite Eight. After college, Gates used his athleticism to open doors in football.

So, without further delay, our blogger staff unveils our All-NBA Gridiron Squad.

OFFENSE:

Quarterback - Chauncey Billups (6'2, 210) - As a leader, Billups has all the traits that an NFL GM would want in a QB. Good decision making ability, team first mentality, toughness, level-head, he's got all the tools to go along with legitimate inborn gridiron talent (his cousin is NFL star LenDale White). In fact, football was actually Billups' first love. Billups dominated the high school level at Quarterback and earned all-state honors in Denver, Colorado. Billups was recruited heavily out of high school for football but opted to play basketball at the University of Colorado instead.

Running Back - Dee Brown (6'0, 185) - This was a difficult choice. Many hardwood stars demonstrated athleticism, speed, toughness and vision...however Brown brings a fearless mentality in a compact frame which is necessary to run between the tackles. If Brown had pursued football, his ideal playing weight with his frame would have been around 215 lbs, a pretty good load for a guy of his quickness. During High School in Illinois, Brown excelled in both basketball and football. Brown played quarterback for the football team and gained over 1,800 all-purpose yards with 16 touchdowns in ONLY 7 GAMES. Brown was recruited heavily
for football by many major collegiate football programs, including Florida State and Nebraska.

Wide Receiver - Allen Iverson (6'0, 165) - Iverson has been one of the quickest/fastest players in the NBA since he was drafted. He is often referred to as the toughest player in the NBA pound for pound. What many don't realize is that Iverson had a bright future in football if he had chosen that path. In High School, Iverson was named the Virginia High School Player of the Year at Quarterback and Defensive Back. Iverson's DB skills can be seen on the hardwood as he has been at the top of the league in steals for many years. He closes on the ball as well as any player in the NBA. As a junior, Iverson led his High School team to the State Championship. Iverson had his choice of anywhere in the country to play college football, and was rated higher than former NFL quarterbacks Michael Vick and Aaron Brooks. Although Iverson would have been a nice addition to our secondary, his playmaking ability and athleticism will be better utilized on offense and in kick/punt returns.

Wide Receiver - Steve Nash (6'1, 185) - Nash is another one of those quick guards in the NBA who can get anywhere on the floor. Nash is one of the only skill position player on our team with no football experience. Nash is a well-respected soccer player and spends his offseasons training with premiere players...Nash is also held in high regards by those players. Some professionals have said Nash could step into the Premiere League right now and be an elite player. For the sake of our team, we need a receiver who can go over the middle and go after balls. Nash would also be great on short screens where he can use his athleticism to make plays. Bottom line, Nash is an elite athlete on the world level, and our skill positions need that kind of boost. Also, we need a kicker.

Wide Receiver - Devin Harris (6'3, 195) - Harris is our deep threat. Known as one of the fastest players in the NBA, Harris will be needed to stretch the field and keep defenses honest. We considered throwing Kobe Bryant in this spot, but Harris brings something different to our wide receiver core. If we have to go to 4 WR sets, Kobe comes in. Besides, anytime we're inside the 20 we're throwing to our tight end anyway.

Tight End - LeBron James (6'8, 250) - James could play any position on the field and excel...however due to his rare combination of size, strength and speed, TE is the ideal position for LeBron. As a blocker James could do the job well, and I honestly believe James could not be stopped one-on-one or inside the red zone. At 250 James is already a beast. If he wanted to, he could play football at 275 and still be dominant. In high school, LeBron was a First-Team All-State wide receiver and was highly recruited by colleges nationwide. Like Iverson, James did not play football his senior year...there was a $100M contract that depended on his health.

Left Tackle - Eric Dampier (6'11, 265) - Dampier is a physical, hard nosed player who gets major minutes for his defensive presence. He often goes unnoticed which makes him a perfect fit as an offensive lineman. Dampier has very long arms and good lateral quickness for a man his size. He's another guy that keeps his weight low to be most effective in the NBA. Given a football scenario, Dampier would be playing around 315. Dampier is also more reliable than our other tackle, which is why we put him to protect Billups' blindside.

Right Tackle - Eddy Curry (6'10, 285) - Curry has never lived up to his potential on the hardwood, and has always struggled with foul trouble. Fouls won't be a problem for Curry on the gridiron however, and Curry will be another nice tackle on the outside. The length and size of Curry will help prevent pass rushers from beating Curry to the outside and also prevent defenders from getting inside on Curry. In football, Curry would be weighing in around 335.

Left Guard - Elton Brand (6'8, 265) - Brand is a very smart player who would bring great intelligence to this offensive line. Brand is another player with long arms (wingspan exceeds 7'0) and good coordination. Brand's quickness is why he was chosen as a guard. Brand would be a very effective blocker as he could pull as a lead blocker. In football, Brand would play around 295.

Right Guard - Jason Maxiell (6'6, 265) - Cut from a similar mold as brand, Maxiell brings a mean streak to the Offensive Line. Jason is a physical player who would open up holes and punish linebackers. Maxiell is another very quick lineman who could pull effectively. With a wingspan of over 7 feet, he'll provide a nice punch off the line. We considered Maxiell for a number of positions, but we felt he would be a great guard on our O-Line. Maxiell's playing weight would be around 295.

Center - Jamal Magloire (6'10, 285) - Magloire is a journeyman NBA player who has had many roles on many teams. His vast experience has allowed him to pick up schemes quickly, and understand roles of teammates well. Magloire would be a nice tackle as well, but his vast experience is why we selected him to direct our O-Line. Magloire has stayed in the NBA as a defensive big man who protects the basket. On our team, he will have to protect our quarterback. The biggest challenge Billups may face at QB might be seeing over his offensive line. Magloire's playing weight would near 330. Magloire rounds up our offensive line with an average height of 6'9 and 315 lbs.

DEFENSE:

Defensive End - Ben Wallace (6'8, 260) - Wallace is another guy with a strong background on the football field. When Wallace was undrafted as a basketball player, he nearly pursued his second love of football. As a Linebacker in High School, Wallace punished offensive players and gained great recognition. If Wallace hadn't developed a strong friendship with Charles Oakley through a basketball camp, Wallace likely would have never pursued basketball. Wallace would bring great strength, toughness, and length to our defense. Rather than swatting away shots, we expect Wallace would bat down a couple of balls per game. Wallace would be strong against both the run and the pass. Wallace's football playing weight would likely be around 285.

Defensive End - Carlos Boozer (6'9, 265) - Carlos is a physical specimen on the basketball floor. His weight room work ethic is well known, and he works hard to keep his body trim and lean. Despite his efforts, Boozer still carries one of the most chizeled frames in the NBA. As a football player, Boozer would bring a Julius Peppers-type mentality to the Defensive Line. He'd be stout against the run, and provide a good pass rush. We considered Carlos for the offensive line, but due to his limited lateral quickness we decided to let him loose on the Defensive Line. Boozer would likely play at a weight near 295. Dwight Howard will be used as a backup/rotational player at DE as well.

Defensive Tackle - Shaquille O'Neal (7'2, exact weight unknown) - Earlier in Shaq's career, he may have anchored our offensive line. For now, we want Shaq to stuff the run with his massive frame. Though vulnerable to a chop-block, Shaq would be a beast to throw over. Shaq would demand two blockers on every play, which would allow our linebackers to roam more freely. Shaq's great footwork would also help him as a pass rusher and in stunts. Shaq already careers quite a bit of weight, so a huge increase in his playing weight would negatively impact his production. We have Shaq playing around 330.

Defensive Tackle - Glen "Big Baby" Davis (6'9, 300) - Big Baby was a dominating high school performer on the gridiron. At the time, Davis tipped the scale near 330 lbs at only 6'6. He's grown 3 inches since then, and dropped some pounds as well. In High School, Davis showed freakish agility and footwork for a man his size. Davis filled a role similar to William "the refrigerator" Parry. Davis played Fullback, Tight End, and Defensive End. We also would bring Davis in to open up holes from the fullback position, but his presence on the D-Line is too tempting to pass on. During his high school career, Davis rushed for 976 yards and 14 touchdowns on 141 carries. He also had 13 catches for 257 yards and a touchdown. Despite sitting out football in college, many NFL teams took a long hard look at Davis as a creative pick late in the NFL draft. Davis opted for basketball once again, but the thought of what he could have achieved on the gridiron is still fun to think about. Davis would likely play near his high school weight of 330. Davis rounds up our defensive line with average height of 6'10 and 315 lbs.

Linebacker - Matt Harpring (6'7, 230) - Let's face it, Matt has always had a football mentality and has been demonstrating many of those characteristics on the hardwood. Harpring did have a VERY successful high school career at QB. Harpring was a 6'7 QB from a football family, and was trying to decide between playing football at Wisconsin or Northwestern (both national powers at the time). He went on a mid-winter recruiting visit to Northwestern and attended a basketball game while there. He decided at that time to that he wanted to play basketball at the next level, and could excel doing so. He made a good choice financially, but Matt's limits in football were the sky. Despite his background as a QB, we've moved Harpring to LB where he can use his physicality and toughness. Harpring would likely play around 255.

Linebacker - Ron Artest (6'8, 235) - Artest is another guy who loves physicality. Artest brings more athleticism than Harpring however, and could be an every down linebacker. If Artest were in the NFL, he'd likely be playing for the Cincinatti Bengals, and would likely have a standing appointment in Commissioner Goodell's office. On our team however, he's got a clean record. Artest would likely play around 245.

Linebacker - Corey Maggette (6'7, 230) - We wanted to bring a guy in that was athletic enough to defend better Tight Ends, while strong enough to meet a linemen head on. Maggette has a chizzled frame, and uses his athleticism well. Maggette would be our 3rd down LB. Maggette would play near 235.

Linebacker - Eduardo Najera (6'8, 235) - Najera is a guy in the NBA that can defend 3 positions. He's very versatile as an asset to any coach, and plays 100% every minute he is on the floor. Najera is a very physical player who would fit in well as a blitzing LB or a reliable coverage man. Najera would likely play near 255.

Cornerback -Nate Robinson (5'9, 185) - Robinson is another guy that could have chosen which sport to play professionally. Robinson played both basketball and football at the University of Washington. Scouts called Robinson a lock to be drafted. On the hardwood, Robinson regularly displays his athletic ability by going up high to dunk on opponents. Despite being somewhat undersized in the NFL, Robinson would be able to meet the ball at its highest point without being taken advantage of by bigger receivers. Another thing to remember is that no matter how undersized he is in the NFL, he is much more undersized in the NBA. Interesting fact about Robinson, he started his college career as a football-scholarshipped athlete, not basketball.

Cornerback - Leandro Barbosa (6'1, 175) - This is the other spot where we strongly considered Allen Iverson. Barbosa however possesses just as much quickness, speed, and athleticism as Iverson, but with a little more size. Barbosa doesn't have any football experience, but his diverse sporting background in Brazil may allow him to adapt quickly. If this experiment doesn't work out, we'll move Iverson back to this side of the ball and sure up this position.

Free Safety - Dwayne Wade (6'4, 210) - Wade flies around the basketball court like very few I've ever seen. In the Olympics, Wade jumped passing lanes on a regular basis and excelled on the defensive end of the floor. Wade is fearless when attacking, and would be perfect to fly around our defensive backfield. Wade is another one of the fastest players in the NBA and would certainly fit right in the speed and quickness category. Injuries may be a concern, but his upside would be unreal.

Strong Safety - Marcus Banks (6'0, 215) - Banks brings more gridiron experience to our defense. Looking at Banks, you immediately recognize his shoulders and overall football build. In High School, Banks was another highly recruited two-sport athlete. Banks was a standout in the defensive backfield but ultimately chose basketball after failing to qualify academically. Banks brings exceptional quickness to our defensive backfield, with good strength and excellent instincts. Finally Banks has found a role where he doesn't have to worry about shooting from the outside. If shooting wasn't a part of the NBA game, Banks would be a premiere PG (he already is defensively).

That rounds up our All-NBA Gridiron Squad. If you can think of any that we're missing, leave a comment to let us know.

SCOR System - Version 1.0

2008-08-22T13:28:00.016-06:00

We are proud to release the first ever version SCOR (Statistical Combination Of Rankings) System.

What is the SCOR System?

The SCOR System is a statistical compilation of 4 complicated ranking systems compiled from different statistical formulas. There are two seperate statistical rankings calculated in the SCOR System: The SCOR Rating, and the SCOR Value. The SCOR Rating assigns each player a rating. This value is a statistical representation how effective a player is. The SCOR Value takes a players SCOR Rating, and compares that rating to their individual salaries. Using this comparison, you can determine whether or not a player is "worth" their paycheck.

Which Ranking Systems are used to calculate the SCOR System?

1. Adjusted Plus/Minus - This ranking method takes the basic +/- structure, and uses regression analysis (statistical analysis) to eliminate shortcomings of the basic +/- structure which is heavily swayed dependent on quality of team, team depth, and so on. The adjusted plus/minus identifies separately a player's Offensive and Defensive Efficiency in comparison to the rest of the league (listed by percentile). For the SCOR System, we took the average of offensive and defensive efficiency. To see the Adjusted Plus/Minus rankings, click on the link below:

http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/06/03/offensive-and-defensive-adjusted-plus-minus/

2. Floor Impact Counter (FIC) - This ranking method takes into account assists and blocks when rating a player's statistical system. The system also differentiates between offensive and defensive rebounds, offenisive rebounds carry a slightly higher value. This system also slightly reduces the value of missed field goals and missed free throws. This ratings method also offers a per 40 minute version, which is known as the FIC40.

3. The Reina Value (RV) - This ranking method takes a players production and compares that production to a player's salary. RealGM Christopher Reina is the creator of both the RV and FIC. The average RV for the top 150 players shows production is significantly higher than zero. For the SCOR System, I took used the difference between the actual RV and average RV, which places the average RV to zero. To see the rating systems for the FIC and RV, click on the link below:

http://realgm.com/src_playerrankings.php?filter=all

4. Team Win Percentage (Team Win%) - This is a statistic that most of you should be aware of. It shows the percentage of games a team has won. Too often ranking systems rely solely on a player's statistical output, and does not factor in whether or not those stats translate into victories. A player such as Gilbert Arenas has impressive individual statistics, however, some would argue that the Wizards were a better team when Arenas was off the floor. For the SCOR System, we factored a team's winning percentage into account when giving a player a ranking. To see a list of NBA team's winning percentage, click on the link below:

http://www.nba.com/standings/team_record_comparison/conferenceNew_Std_Cnf.html

How is the SCOR System Calculated?

SCOR Rating = FIC40 * [ (0.5*Team Win %) + (0.5*Adjusted +/-) ]

SCOR Value = (.10 * Adjusted RV Rating) * SCOR Rating

SCOR System Version 1.0: (Click on Pictures to Enlarge)

The SCOR System combines 4 statistical rankings systems to produce 1 superior statistical ranking system. Version 1.0 is the first of many future versions to be produced. This first version takes the top 150 players in the RV system. Additionally, 5 more Jazz players have been added to the statistics base.

Until I can find a way to post the full Excel File (which can be sorted according to the desired category), I'll post screenshots of the spreadsheet below:

How did Jazz players fare? (Click on Pictures to Enlarge)

The Olympic Effect

2008-08-18T16:40:00.013-06:00

Nationwide, eyes have been glued to the TV screen to watch Olympians wow the world with impressive accomplishments of strength, speed and athleticism. It's not often viewers get to see all of these attributes in the same event. That's exactly what worldwide fans have been privy to watch this year from Beijing.

LeBron James and Kobe Bryant headline the USA's Olympic squad. If it weren't for the awe-inspiring performance of the Americans, many fans would be pleasantly watching some of the elite athletes the world has to offer. Unfortunately for world basketball, stars like Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Andrei Kirilenko and Yao Ming all have been left in the wake of the mighty US basketball team.

Many Jazz fans have watched anxiously as Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams represent the only NBA franchise with two players on the US roster. But should they be concerned?

Carlos Boozer has never been known for his durability and Deron Williams enjoys playing at the rim...will the physical international nature of basketball pay its toll on these Jazz superstars? Don't forget Andrei Kirilenko. Expectations have never been higher for a European basketball star. After leading Russia to an unexpected title in the 2007 Eurobasket, will Kirilenko be able to lead his Russians to glory once again?

Personally, I have watched every US game (including exhibition games) since the team was formed once again this summer. For a while I was on board the US team to see if "redemption" was a possibility or a probability. Nowadays, I find myself more interested in watching how Boozer, Williams and Kirilenko fair against the world's elite.

As a die-hard Jazz fan, my hope is that DWill, Boozer and AK will shine on the international level and perhaps draw some attention to what looks to be a promising 2008-09 season. But what can Jazz fans expect from our Olympians as they return home?

THE TRANSITION TO 82+ GAMES:

The question many Jazz fans share is simple: How will the play of Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko transfer to an 82+ game NBA season?

For a glimpse into the future, let's take a look at the past:

USA OLYMPIANS:

Statistically, there is a significant impact NBA players face after returning from the Olympic Games. After the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens, NBA players from the US returned home better players.

Before the Olympics, the 2004 team averaged 19.75 points per game (as individuals). The average winning percentage for the NBA Teams on which these players played was .467 (record of about 38-44). Fans also wonder about durability concerns when their favorite players spend their summers playing in the Olympics rather than resting injuries preparing for the season. To measure this number, we'll compare games played in the 03-04 season versus the number of games played in 04-05 season. In 03-04, the US Olympians averaged 67.6 games played per season.

After the Olympics, those same US players returned to the NBA to average 22.31 points per game (up 2.55 points per game). 8 of the 11 players increased their points per game average upon their return from the Olympics. US players also saw an improvement in their team's performance as the average winning percentage of Jazz teams increased to .594 (record of about 48-34). 8 of 10 teams with US Olympians improved their winning percentage. Durability was basically a wash, as averaged games played decreased by 1.55 games to 66.09.

INTERNATIONAL NBA OLYMPIANS:

Before the 2004 Olympics, International NBA Olympians averaged 11.71 points per game. The average winning percentage of International NBA Olympians' NBA teams was .571 (record of about 47-35). The average games played in 2003-04 for International NBA Olympians was 77.61 games per season.

After the 2004 Olympics in Athens, International NBA Olympians saw little change in their scoring average (average increased to 12.06, up 0.34 points). International NBA Olympians did not see a similar increase in their NBA team's winning percentage. The average win percentage for International NBA Olympians didn't change significantly (down .005). The biggest change for International Olympians came in the durability department. The average games played for International Olympians decreased to 64.14 games (decrease of 12.57 games). This is a very significant drop in games played.

The biggest reason for this decrease may be due to how many minutes these players were playing. International teams do not have the depth to rotate frequently like the US. Andrei Kirilenko averaged 36 minutes per game for Russia in the Olympics. Considering there are only 40 minutes in a game that is a lot to ask of a player...especially when they have 82+ games still to play. To give those minutes/game perspective, AK averaged 30 minutes per game in the NBA out of 48 minutes.

THE GOOD NEWS: We can expect good things from DWill and Boozer in the coming season. Also, Mehmet Okur took the summer off to prepare for the coming contract season.

THE BAD NEWS: Kirilenko is playing a lot of minutes, and playing poorly.

A Luxury Cap Team?

2008-08-13T14:24:00.005-06:00

Utah Jazz owner Larry Miller was recently released from the hospital after an extended stay due to heart attacks and diabetes complications. Miller didn't waste any time before meeting with the media. Though his physical health was nowhere near his normal level (which is saying something), Mr. Miller's mental sharpness was still in tact as he answered questions with openness and honesty.

During one interview in particular, Larry Miler expressed his concern for the future financial state of the Jazz. Miller said "[the Utah Jazz] do not intend to be a luxury tax payer". While Miller's "intentions" are clear, reality may take the Jazz into unchartered territory.

Before jumping to any conclusions, it should be clarified what makes a team a luxury tax payer. There are two basic levels of salary cap in the NBA.

Soft Cap = $56.68M in 2008 = the so-called tax limit which restricts a the amount of money available for a team to pay free agents from other teams. (interestingly to note, there was not a single team in the NBA last season that was under the soft cap)
Hard Cap = approximately 125% of the Soft Cap = $71.15M in 2008 = the maximum allowable payroll limit for a team without paying a "tax" to the league. For every dollar that a team pays in salary beyond this hard cap, that same franchise must pay the same amount in "taxes" to the league. Thus, creating a dollar for dollar tax which one will often hear references of. (interesting to note, in 2007, only 6 teams were below this limit including the Jazz).

Is it necessary for a team to exceed the hard cap to stay competitive in the NBA similar to the MLB (Red Sox, Yankees, etc)?

The simple answer is No. If you break the NBA down into three tiers of payroll, here are the results.

Highest Payrolls = .471 win percentage
Middle Payrolls = .577 win percentage
Lowest Payrolls = .452 win percentage

Using the same tiered system to analyze teams only in the WESTERN CONFERENCE, you get the following numbers:

Highest Payrolls = .529 win percentage
Middle Payrolls = .627 win percentage
Lowest Payrolls = .424 win percentage

Looking solely at statistics, one could create a reasonable argument to state that teams should not be extreme penny-pinchers, although they shouldn't reach the other extreme by opening their pockets for anyone who has ever had a good season.

Among the highest and lowest paying teams in the NBA, you'll find:
Miami = $150M in 2007-08 including luxury taxes paid
New York = $135M in 2007-08 including luxury taxes paid
Denver = $130M in 2007-08 including luxury taxes paid
LA Clippers = $57M in 2007-08
Milwaukee = $59M in 2007-08
Memphis = $48M in 2007-08
Philadelphia = $45M in 2007-08

While teams want to avoid either extreme, there is no exact recipe for success. Many people ask "can a team in a small market like Utah afford to pay high taxes in the NBA and stay afloat"? Given the right scenario, the answer is YES.

The San Antonio Spurs ranked 6th in the NBA last season in payroll which reached approximately $110M including luxury taxes. San Antonio is really a smaller market that Utah, but the Spurs have gained a national following by staying competitive for multiple seasons and winning multiple NBA championships.

Our blogger team has put together a spreadsheet that shows the Utah Jazz salaries for the coming years.

The yellow cells mark the quality players eligible for signing an extension after next season with their expected salaries. Don't forget, a team can't operate with only 6 players however, and a portion of salaries must be kept aside for bench players to fill out a roster. In addition to those listed, the Jazz have zero first round draft picks in 2009, two first round draft picks in 2010 (including one from the NY Knicks), and 1 first round draft pick in subsequent years following.

A common idea among Jazz fans is that the Jazz should trade Andrei Kirilenko to free themselves of his contract. The following chart shows the effect that change would have on the overall team salary. These changes are under the assumption that Kirilenko would be traded for either a high draft pick, or an expiring contract in return.

Feel free to take a look at numbers, and make your own determination of which players you would opt not to resign (in the yellow). If you want any specific numbers, send us an email at "thesaltpalace@gmail.com" or post a comment and we'll make those calculations and post them in response.

"Pic of the Week"

2008-08-12T00:12:00.003-06:00

In case you missed it - On the biggest stage in the history of basketball, DWill went right at the biggest star in the history of the basketball. Looks like a foul right? Wrong, at least according to the officials. No foul was called, and play continued. DWill landed on his feet though while Yao flew back into the base of the basket. Remember when DWill tried to dunk on Kobe as a rookie?

This is why we love DWill "more than a fat kid loves cake" (to quote a loyal reader).

Front Court Statistics

2008-08-10T16:25:00.013-06:00

In an interview shortly after being released from the hospital, Larry Miller expressed his concern for the summer of 2010 (after this coming season).

"Next summer will be one of the most important summers in our history."

Miller state that he is very worried about the "big challenge" coming next off-season. Three of the Jazz's top players — Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver — are likely to become free agents, with Paul Millsap available for contract extension. Failure to extend Millsap's contract would result in Millsap becoming a free agent the following summer. Ronnie Price, Jarron Collins, and Brevin Knight will all be free agents as well.

"We're going to have to make some very, very tough decisions next year," Miller said. "I do not intend us to be a luxury-tax payer, but only because we have to have an economically stable franchise regardless of anything else."

In light of Miller's recent comments, and following up on our recent discussions of Paul Millsap vs. Carlos Boozer, our blogger staff has compiled some simple NBA statistics for comparison of the Jazz frontcourt trio.

All statistics compare players at the same stage of their career (rather than current head-to-head).

12 Questions to Think About (Milsap vs. Boozer)

2008-08-10T16:07:00.007-06:00

12 Questions to Think About: Feel free to share your thoughts with the rest of us by commenting or send us an email at thesaltpalace@blogspot.com.

*There are comparitive statistics available for reference in the previous article posted.

1: In order to win an NBA championship, which attributes of a PF do you think are most important to a team?

2: Can the Jazz win an NBA championship with Carlos Boozer as their primary PF?

3: Can the Jazz win an NBA championship with Paul Millsap as their primary PF?

Info: Since the 1998-99 season, every NBA champion has had an interior player average over 17 points per game as an all-star (Boston = Garnett, Miami = Shaq, Detroit = Wallace, San Antonio = Duncan, LA = Shaq).

4: In your opinion, what are the biggest benefits of having a low-post scorer on your team?

5: Is it necessary to have a low-post scorer on your team? Why?

6: If you have a player(s) that can attack the basket off the dribble, can this make up for the lack of a true low-post scorer?

7: Does this change your opinion on whether or not the Jazz can win an NBA championship with Carlos Boozer as their primary PF?

8: Does this change your opinion on whether or not the Jazz can win an NBA championship with Paul Millsap as their primary PF?

Info: The Chicago Bulls were the most dominant team in the NBA for nearly a decade. For most of those years and Championships, the Bulls relied heavily on Dennis Rodman and Luc Longley in their front-court. Rodman averaged 5.5 ppg, 5.7 ppg, and 4.7 ppg to go along with 14.9 rpg, 16.1 rpg, and 15.0 rpg in his years with the Bulls. Luc Longley averaged 9.1 ppg, 9.1 ppg, and 11.4 ppg to go along with 5.1 rpg, 5.6 rpg, and 5.9 rpg in the same years with the Bulls. Longly failed miserably with every other team he played with after the Bulls.

9: How were the Bulls were able to win so many games (and championships) without a true low-post scorer?

10: Besides Michael Jordan, what does a team need in order to win an NBA championship without a true low-post scorer?

11: Does this change your opinion on whether or not the Jazz can win an NBA championship with Carlos Boozer as their primary PF?

12: Does this change your opinion on whether or not the Jazz can win an NBA championship with Paul Millsap as their primary PF?

*There are comparitive statistics available for reference in the previous article posted.

12 Questions to Think About: Feel free to share your thoughts with the rest of us by commenting or send us an email at thesaltpalace@blogspot.com.

Paul Millsap vs Carlos Boozer

2008-08-07T14:31:00.012-06:00

Utah Jazz management is stuck between a rock and a hard place when deciding which direction to steer the franchise in coming years.

Rock = Carlos Boozer
Hard Place = Paul Millsap

Both players have significant upside, however there may not be room for both in the long-term future of the Jazz.

Don't expect the Jazz to move either player this season. The Jazz have got to feel comfortable with their current three-headed monster (Boozer, Okur, and Millsap). All three player are interchangeable in the front-court (any two can play together at one time). Between the three players, there are not many minutes left over.

07-08 Season Averages:
Carlos Boozer = 35 minutes/game
Mehmet Okur = 33 minutes/game
Paul Millsap = 17.5 minutes/game
Left Overs = 10.5 minutes/game

What's the concern?
Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur both have opt-out clauses in their contracts. An opt-out clause provides one party the right to terminate a contract early, or extend the contract for an additional year at the current rate. In this case, both Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer will have the chance to test their value on the free agency market. Based on performance/production, both players can demand significantly higher value on the open market.

Paul Millsap is in a slightly different situation. Paul still makes near the league minimum (his rookie contract as a second round pick). Just as Deron Williams recently signed a large contract extension, the Jazz will have the opportunity to offer Paul Millsap a contract extension. Millsap's rookie contract will continue through the following season, after which the newly negotiated contract will take place. It is quite possible that Paul Millsap will earn the highest pay raise of the three players come time for re-negotiation.

Current Salary -- Expected Salary
Carlos Boozer: $11.6M -- $15M to $17M
Mehmet Okur: $8.5M -- $10M to $12M
Paul Millsap: $800K -- $6M

What to do?
That is the question the Jazz face. Based upon value and durability, it is highly unlikely the Jazz will pass on Mehmet Okur. That leaves us with Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap. Carlos will likely demand a maximum contract from the Jazz, while Paul Millsap will likely be interested in more playing time.

To Be Continued...

*Panel of Fans Needed:
The Salt Palace Blogger Staff would like to form a one-time panel of Jazz fans to discuss this topic of Paul Millsap vs Carlos Boozer. If you are interested in participating in this one-time panel, send us an email at thesaltpalace@gmail.com. Please include your name, location, and email address to where we can send some questions. We will NOT use or sell your information for spamming or advertising.

Would You Make These Trades?

2008-08-06T12:26:00.012-06:00

The Utah Jazz have historically been a quiet yet active front office when it came down to trades. In the spirit of summer, and for purpose of discussion only, our blogger-staff has come up with three potential roster moves the Jazz "could" make this off-season. Jazz fans have thoroughly discussed the options of dealing for Omeka Okafor, Luol Deng, etc. For the sake of this discussion, as far as our blogger-staff knows, none of these trades have surfaced for discussion.

Would you do this deal?

1. Chicago Blockbuster

Jazz send:
Carlos Boozer - PF
Morris Almond - SG

Bulls send:
Kirk Hinrich - G
Tyrus Thomas - PF

Adjusted Jazz Depth Chart:
PG - Deron Williams - Brevin Knight - Ronnie Price
SG - Kirk Hinrich - Kyle Korver - CJ Miles
SF - Ronnie Brewer - Matt Harpring
PF - Andrei Kirilenko - Paul Millsap
C -Mehmet Okur - Tyrus Thomas - Jarron Collins

Adjusted Bulls Depth Chart:
PG - Derrick Rose - Ben Gordon
SG - Ben Gordon - Larry Hughes - Thabo Sefolosha
SF - Luol Deng - Andres Nocioni
PF - Carlos Boozer - Joakim Noah
C - Drew Gooden - Cedric Simmons
Positives/Negatives for Jazz: + Defense: Boozer ranks in the 5th percentile defensively, while Hinrich ranks in the 63rd percentile)
+ Perimeter Shooting: Hinrich shoots 38% from beyond the arc for his career
+ Ball Handling: Hinrich averaged 6 apg last season to only 2 turnovers per game.
+ Roster Flexibility: The Jazz save money over the long haul.
- Interior Offense: Boozer accounted for about 15 ppg inside the painted area.
- Rebounding: While Thomas and Millsap can pull down rebounds in bulk, Boozer leaves a void that will be tough to fill.
- Big for Small: As a rule of thumb, teams should never trade a big man for a perimeter player (PG excluded)

Would you do this deal?

2. Shooting Stars

Jazz Send:
Andrei Kirilenko
Kyle Korver
Jarron Collins
Future First Round Pick (protected)

Bucks Send:
Michael Redd
Dan Gadzuric

Jazz Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Deron Williams - Brevin Knight - Ronnie Price
SG - Michael Redd - CJ Miles - Morris Almond
SF - Ronnie Brewer - Matt Harpring
PF - Carlos Boozer - Paul Millsap
C -Mehmet Okur - Dan Gadzuric

Bucks Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Mo Williams - Charlie Bell
SG - Kyle Korver - Desmond Mason
SF - Richard Jefferson - Joe Alexander
PF - Andrei Kirilenko - Charlie Villanueva
C - Andrew Bogut - Jarron Collins

Positives/Negatives for Jazz:
+ Weapons: Add an all-star caliber shooting guard in Redd (22.7 ppg)
+ Outside Shooting: Although Korver is a great outside shooter, Redd is a significant upgrade
+ Unload Kirilenko: AK's trade value may be the highest it will be in years to come (Olympic standout), and through this trade the Jazz get rid of him
+ Depth at Center: Gadzuric will give you his best effort, and he's 7 feet.
- Defensive downgrade: Redd is a below average defender, without much help on the inside.
- Shot Blocking: The Jazz lose their only real shot blocker in Kirilenko

Would you do this deal?

3. Cooler Heads Prevail

Jazz Send:
Matt Harpring
Kyle Korver
Kyrylo Fesenko
Ante Tomic (Rights to)

Pistons Send:
Rasheed Wallace

Jazz Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Deron Williams - Brevin Knight - Ronnie Price
SG - Ronnie Brewer - CJ Miles - Morris Almond
SF - Andre Kirilenko - CJ Miles
PF - Carlos Boozer - Paul Millsap
C -Mehmet Okur - Rasheed Wallace

Pistons Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Chauncey Billups - Rodney Stuckey
SG - Rip Hamilton - Kyle Korver
SF - Tayshawn Prince - Matt Harpring
PF - Jason Maxiell
C - Antonio McDyess - Kwame Brown

Positives/Negatives for Jazz:
+ Winning Mentality: There's little coincidence the Blazers fell apart after Rasheed left for Detroit.
+ Interior Defense: Despite getting older, Rasheed is a very good defensive player
+/- Bench Production: Wallace is one of the best scoring bigs in the NBA, although the Jazz give up their current bench in Harpring and Korver.
+/- Future Flexibility: Wallace has a huge yet expiring contract. Korver will likely opt out next season, and Harpring's knees are all but done.
- Mental Stability: Rasheed leads the NBA in technical fouls every year.
- Sloan's Respons: Jerry Sloan and Rasheed Wallace we be nose to nose about every other game.

Would you do this deal?

4. The Missing Piece

Jazz Send: (to a 3rd party team)
Andrei Kirilenko

Rockets Send: (to Utah)
Shane Battier
Bobby Jackson

Jazz Adjusted Depth Chart:
PG - Deron Williams - Brevin Knight - Ronnie Price
SG - Ronnie Brewer - Kyle Korver - Morris Almond
SF - Shane Battier - CJ Miles
PF - Carlos Boozer - Paul Millsap
C -Mehmet Okur - Jarron Collins

*This trade would likely only occur with a 3rd party team to receive Kirilenko, and send additional players to the Rockets.

Positives/Negatives for Jazz:
+/- Team defense: AK and Battier are both excellent defenders who can guard 3 positions
+ Outside Shooting: Battier shot 39% from behind the arc last season which is an upgrade over Kirilenko's 31% career average.
+ Mental Toughness: Battier is one of the toughest players in the NBA, meanwhile AK cried during the playoffs.
+ Value: Battier comes at a much cheaper price with arguably greater production. Jackson's contract expires at the end of the year, freeing up money to sign Boozer
- Shot Blocking: The Jazz once again lose their only real shot blocking presence.

Would you pull the trigger on any of these moves? Would the opposing team? We'd love to hear your thoughts.

If you have any ideas for 3rd party teams in the Houston Deal (or any other trade ideas), go ahead and post them in the comments.

The Salt Palace on 1320 KFAN today!!!

2008-08-04T21:51:00.007-06:00

Listen to Brian from The Salt Palace on 1320 KFAN's Locked on Sports in Salt Lake City by clicking here. He was featured on the Blogger Round Table segment which airs Mondays at 4:00 PM MST.

Fans' Choice

2008-08-03T19:45:00.015-06:00

The NBA Draft is over and done with. The Rocky Mountain Revue is a thing of the past. Free Agency never really arrived. Despite a relatively quiet off season, there are many great topics still to discuss. Here are a few ideas our blogger-staff has compiled over the past few weeks that have not yet been discussed in our blog. In order to maximize blogger interest and participation, I'll let the blogger's choose the next article to be written.

Here are the choices:

1. Olympic Preview - Once again, the Jazz will be the best represented team in Beijing this summer. While Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer look to bring home the gold, Andrei Kirilenko has earned one of the greatest honors any citizen can have; Andrei will lead his country into Olympic Stadium while carrying the Russian Flag...

2. NBA All-Salary Cap Team - It could be argued that no sport has been as effected by a Salary Cap as much as the NBA. In Major League Baseball, large markets dominate the national media. Teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels boast payrolls into the hundreds of millions of dollars. While the New York Knicks have the highest payroll in the NBA. As a result, the Knicks will be cursed by bad salaries for years to come. With that in mind, The Salt Palace blogger-staff has come up with an All-Star team that works under the salary cap...

3. Statistical Review of 2007-08 - Using complex statistics (Regression Analysis), the Salt Palace Blog has evaluated the performance of every Utah Jazz player, broken down by minute, to find the highest producing, most-consistent players of the 2007-08 season...

4. Trade Partners - In regards to the Jazz off season, Kevin O'Connor recently said "We're done with signing, probably, any free agents...But, we're certainly not done continuing to look at working our roster to improve ourselves." What O'Connor meant to say was "We missed out on our Free Agents, but we are discussing trade opportunities". Sharing O'Connor's enthusiasm, the Salt Palace blogger-staff has come up with the top 5 trade opportunities you haven't thought of...

5. College Football Preview - The Jazz will always be #1 in the hearts of their fans, but the Salt Palace blogger-staff also takes an interest in the surrounding community and athletic programs. With College Football approaching rapidly, the Utah Utes and BYU Cougers look primed to make noise on the national level. However, at least one of these teams may be more vulnerable than most realize. Let's start with the Cougars...

Now let's hear from the readers. Which article(s) would you like us to next write about?

Go Jazz!

Greatest Trade Ever?

2008-07-31T10:44:00.015-06:00

The greatest acquisition (via trade) in Utah Jazz history may very well be Tom Gugliotta.

Tom Gugliotta? What? You can't be serious? What if I told you that the Trade for Tom Gugliotta directly led to the acquisitions of Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and a top 3 overall pick and future NBA superstar? Here's how the trade went down.

Utah Jazz sent to the Phoenix Suns:
- Keon Clark (was injured)
- Ben Handlogton (was injured)

Phoenix Suns sent to the Utah Jazz:
- Tom Gugliotta
- 2004 1st round Draft Pick (later became Kirk Snyder)
- Future 1st round Draft Pick from the New York Knicks (protected, will be the unprotected 2010 pick)
- 2005 2nd round Draft Pick (later became Robert Whaley)
- Cash Considerations

Results of the Trade:
Gugliotta had a huge contract that came off the books at the season's close, leaving the Jazz well below the salary cap, with positioning to make a run at major free agents. The Jazz capitalized on the move and snatched up Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur. The draft picks were considered investments in the future.

Kevin O'Connor should have been hailed as a genius for the move. The closest thing to praise that O'Connor received was from himself, saying "we've put ourselves in a situation where we got three draft picks for two players that were hurt".

History of the Knicks' 2010 Pick:
At the time, the New York Knicks were a middle of the pack team. After being swept by the New Jersey Nets in the first round of the 2003-04 playoffs, Isaiah Thomas took an aggressive approach to building the team and sent the conditional pick to the Phoenix Suns in exchange for Stephon Marbury. The results could not have been worse for the Knicks. The Knicks gave up a future investment for a cancer that has since doomed the Knicks.

Moving Stephon Marbury seemed to make sense for the Suns, as he clearly wasn't a player that could lead the Suns back to respectability in the Western Conference. After unloading Marbury's contract, the decided to move some other over-sized contracts (Gugliotta) to free up some space under the Salary Cap. The Suns took advantage of the extra salary cap space and signed Free Agent PG Steve Nash. History has proven Suns' management to have made wise decisions throughout the summer of 2004.

Downfall of the Knicks:
It didn't take long for the Knicks to start falling. In the following years, the Knicks won 23 games, 33 games, 23 games and 33 games. As team President, Isaiah Thomas deflected much of the blame toward coaching. Larry Brown was asked to step down, and Thomas named himself as Head Coach. Thomas didn't improve the performance of the Knicks, and was asked to step down as Head Coach after the conclusion of the 2007-08 season. Thomas left his mark on the franchise with many terrible contracts, and little talent on the team.

After Thomas was asked to step down as Head Coach, the Knicks appointed former Suns coach Mike D'Antoni as their next head coach. While D'Antoni is a significant upgrade over Isaiah Thomas, the contracts left in Thomas' wake will keep the Knicks down for a couple more years. It is widely known that the Knicks are looking to clear as much space as possible for the 2010 offseason when many big name Free Agents become available such as LeBron James and Dwayne Wade.

Last season, the Knicks finished with the 5th worst record in the NBA. The only teams worse than the Knicks were the Miami Heat (will be significantly better next year), the Seattle Supersonics (a team full of rookies will definitely improve), the Memphis Grizzlies (mortgaged any chance at success in the Gasol trade, but may improve in a couple of years), and the Minnesota Timberwolves (the future doesn't look bright). I project the Miami Heat and the Seattle Supersonics to surpass the Knicks in coming seasons, leaving the Knicks as the 3rd worst team in the NBA.

2010 Draft:
In honor of the Knicks' horrendous situation, I'll be posting periodic outlooks on players at the top of the 2010 draft. It is very possible the Jazz could end up with a top 3 pick in the 2010 draft, which would only add to New York's hatred of Isaiah Thomas.

2010 Draft Prospect: Xavier Henry, Shooting Guard, 6'6, 205 lbs
Xavier Henry is an extremely gifted swing-man entering his senior year of high school. Henry has not yet declared where he will be playing his college ball, and he will pretty much have his choice of anywhere in the country. Henry currently plays for Putnam City High School, in Oklahoma City. Henry is said to be fond of Memphis, Kansas and North Carolina as potential schools he may attend in a year. Henry's father played college basketball at Kansas University. Henry's brother was a first round draft pick of the MLB draft by the New York Yankees. Henry has grown taller and stronger each year he has been in High School, and has shown an excellent desire to lead his team to victory. Henry is also said to be a reliable student and leader in the locker room.

Henry attacks the basket with athleticism and balance as well as any other high schooler in the nation. Henry has the leaping ability and strength to finish around the basket, and the creativity to position himself advantageously. Henry already has an advanced shooting ability from long range also, which not only makes defenders respect him on the perimeter, but crowd him to prevent an easy jumpshot. Henry shows advanced basketball IQ and fundamentals, choosing to use the glass on any jumpshot inside 15 feet, and finishing with both hands around the hoop. When Henry attacks the rim, he reminds me of Kobe Bryant the way he hangs, maneuvers, and somehow gets the shot to fall gently through the basket. Like many young players, Henry will need to improve his defense, but he has the athleticism, quickness and intelligence to be a strong defender in the future.

The sweet shooting lefty is no doubt on his way to stardom in the NBA. Could Henry end up in Utah? If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on the Knicks to be one of the bottom 5 teams in the NBA for the next two years. The thought of a back court featuring Deron Williams and Xavier Henry is scary to imagine. Both players attack the rim (and play above the rim), both players cannot be guarded 1 on 1, and both players have a sweet stroke from the outside. Deron will be only 26 by 2010, and could possibly play 10 years alongside Henry. If the Henry is currently projected as a top 5 pick in the 2010 NBA draft.

It may not be easy to fathom, but a simple trade for Tom Gugliotta may end up yielding Boozer, Okur and Xavier Henry. Factor DWill in that lineup and that's a lineup built to bring home many NBA championships. Props to Kevin O'Connor!

Take a look at these highlight films on YouTube, and you'll fall in love with Henry also:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hD2a-MpXd8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xg3w7xon99I

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMPfjS4ZsQ0

Here is a link to a website dedicated specifically to Xavier Henry:

http://www.xavierhenry.org/

Offseason Plan Comes Into Focus

2008-07-29T11:31:00.007-06:00

Don't be fooled by the silence coming from the Jazz this off season. Sometimes it's the biggest news that gets passed through whispers. So what are the Jazz whispering?

1. Lock up Deron Williams - done
2. Prepare for Summer of 2009
3. Sign and Trade for Restricted Free Agent - pending
4. Solidify depth at PG - done

We Jazz fans have been told on many occasions this summer that the Jazz brass have been as active as any team in the free agent market. The difference between Jazz brass and other team's management? Jazz brass keep their workings in house.

The Jazz are at a CRITICAL junction which will decide the future of the franchise. The next two summers could either send the Jazz on their way to Utah's first NBA championship...or could send the Jazz down toward the bottom of the NBA's cellar. DWill is locked in for 4 years, with a player option for a 5th (1 year left on rookie contract in addition to new contract). DWill clearly wanted to see the state of the team after 4 years before committing to anything beyond that. Let's take a look at the Summer of 2009, and what it will likely entail:

Under Contract:
Deron Williams - $17.5 M
Andrei Kirilenko - $15.1 M
Matt Harpring - $6 M
CJ Miles - $3.7 M
Kosta Koufos - $1.8 M

Not Under Contract:
Carlos Boozer - Free Agent-opt out {current = $11.5 M, expected = $17 M}
Mehmet Okur - Free Agent - opt out {current = $8.5 M, expected = $12 M}
Kyle Korver - Free Agent - opt out {current = $5 M, expected = $6 M}
Jarron Collins - Free Agent
Ronnie Price - Free Agent
Brevin Knight - Free Agent
Ronnie Brewer - Eligible for extension {current = $2 M, expected = $6M}
Paul Millsap - Eligible for extension {current = $1 M, expected = $6M}

In order for the Jazz to re-sign the key pieces they currently have, their overall payroll will increase by an expected $19 million (not including luxury tax implications)! That is HUGE for any team, let alone a small market team like the Jazz. Larry Miller has always been willing to open his pockets and pay players, but if he were to open his wallet that much, the team would be in such financial problems, it would be have to be sold or moved to a bigger market.

Needless to say, the Jazz have know what's coming, and have been preparing for that day. Any Free Agent they signed with the MLE this year, would increase that number even more. If Boozer jumps ship and Memo jumps ship, Deron won't be happy with his supporting cast and may opt to leave in 4 years (3 from that point).

So what can the Jazz doing to prepare? The Jazz HAVE to clear some roster space. They can do this by trading for expiring contracts, or for a combination of players, some which may stay on as a piece to the puzzle, some which will expire and come off the books just in time. The Jazz can also trade a young up and coming player in exchange for a future draft pick (knowing the payday that will be necessary next year).

With a maxed out roster, and upcoming financial demands, the Jazz have not pursued any significant Free Agents...word regarding Unrestricted Free Agents usually gets passed around the NBA pretty quick. Now Restricted Free Agents, that's a different story.

Luol Deng for Andrei Kirilenko Rumors:
Not that the Jazz don't have a spot and a need for AK on the team, but when you realize there is only so much money to pass around, Memo and Boozer are simply more valuable than AK. AK makes $15M, and comes off the books in 2 years. There is very little chance AK returns to Utah after this contract. The Jazz may just let his contract run out and see what happens. Or the Jazz could move AK for a cheaper contract combined with expiring contracts. Rumors are floating about the Jazz going after Chicago Restricted Free Agent Luol Deng (SF), who would fit in perfectly with the Jazz. Deng will likely receive around $10M per year, and a second player may need to be included to match salaries. The second player would need to be an expiring contract who could come off the books next season or be bought out of their contract. (Drew Gooden $7M, Tyrus Thomas $4M, Thabo Sefolosha $2M, Cedric Simmons $1.5M) Considering the value of Deng for Kirilenko is pretty much even, the pieces would need to be insignificant players.

Welcome Brevin Knight!

2008-07-25T13:31:00.013-06:00

The Jazz pulled off a minor trade on Tuesday sending Jason Hart to the Clippers in exchange for Brevin Knight. While Brevin Knight may be a familiar name, many fans don't remember why they know his name so well. Brevin has had many shoulder rubs with Utah in the past. There are two major positives about this trade, although Knight will likely only get a few minutes each night. #1, the Jazz got rid of Hart, who never was a good fit in the system, and #2, the Jazz will save about $1M next season. Considering luxury tax implications, and upcoming expenses, that $1M will grow significantly in terms of savings.

In light of the recent trade, here's some info about Brevin, his career, and his ties to Utah.

Brevin Knight - PG

5'10, 170 lbs

11 years pro

Stanford University:

Knight had a terrific collegiate career, earning many honors both in the PAC-10 and on the national level. In the 1997 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen, Knight and his Staford Cardinal fell to Keith VanHorn, Michael Doleac, Andre Miller and crew 82-77. Knight led all scorers in the game with 27 points. VanHorn scored 25, Doleac scored 16 while Miller scored an always efficient 19 points. Knight went on to become the Stanford all-time leader in assists and steals.

http://gostanford.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/events/stan-m-baskbl-ev-game32.html

Professional Career:

Knight was selected with the 16th pick in the first round of the 2007 nba draft by the Cleveland Cavaliers. Knight started his NBA career by averaging 9.0 ppg and 8.2 apg as a starter for the playoff bound Cavaliers. Knight's numbers didn't improve much over the next couple of seasons as opponents began to sag off of Knight, forcing him to shoot over the top (which is not his strength). Knight always managed the team well and took care of the ball. In 2000, Knight reconnected with his collegiate nemesis Andre Miller, who stepped right in and took the starting role. Knight was sent that same season to Atlanta where he played spotty minutes on a bad team. Knight struggled to find a role for the next few seasons, before landing a spot with the Charlotte Bobcats, where he played well in a starters role. In Charlotte, Knight achieved career highs in both scoring (12.6) and assists (9.0) in consecutive years. The assist number is pretty astonishing considering he had a very poor supporting cast which often struggled to finish plays for Knight (which would have led to assists). Last season, Knight played reserve minutes for the Clippers who struggled all season.

His Game:

Brevin Knight is a Jerry Sloan Point Guard in that he is highly intelligent and runs an offense very efficiently. Knight is undersized as an NBA player, but makes up for any physical deficiencies with his intelligence and quickness. Knight's biggest strength is his passing ability. Year in, year out, Knight ranks among the NBA's best in assist to turnover ratio. As a scorer, Knight scores most of his points attacking the rim. As a shooter, Knight leaves much to be desired. It may be his inability to shoot from the outside that really hurts Knight's effectiveness with the Jazz. While the Jazz always preach a pass first mentality with their Point Guards, the pick and roll demands that a player knock down a perimeter shot. This was Jason Hart's greatest defficiency last season. Let's take a look at two pick and roll scenarios:

Scenario A: Hart gets the ball on the wing, the middle of the lane is cleared for space as Boozer comes out to set a screen for Hart. Immediately upon recognizing the screen and roll opportunity, the defense falls back into the paint and goes underneath the screen, daring Hart to shoot from the outside. Hart either forces a low-percentage outside shot which looks like he's throwing up a half court buzzer beater, or Hart passes the ball to Kirilenko or Harpring who then try to take their man off the dribble or force an outside jumpshot...trouble.

John Crotty catches the ball on the wing. The middle of the lane opens up as Malone comes out to set a screen for Crotty. Crotty's extremely slow feet allow the defense to give heavy ball pressure without fear of getting beat to the basket. Crotty comes off the screen, with the defense following over the top of the screen behind Crotty. Malone is the bigger threat, so the defensive big man follows Malone instead of providing help on the slowest PG in the history of the NBA. With his defender on his back, Crotty maneuvers his way to 15-20 feet where he uses every bit of strength left in his now artificial knees to pull up for the jumpshot...nothing but net.

It's really sad how effective terrible Point Guards can be in the Jazz offense if they can simply shoot the ball. Nearly every play the Jazz run have an element of a screen and roll. If the PG can't shoot, he better be pretty dang good with the ball. I do believe Knight will be a HUGE upgrade over Hart for the Jazz, but I don't know if Knight will ever take Ronnie Price's spot as the primary backup to Deron Williams. The big advantage Knight has over Hart, is that when the opposing defender goes underneath a screen, Knight possesses the quickness to take advantage of the open space. Knight also possesses the vision and passing ability to take advantage of the passing lanes that open up when a defender goes underneath a screen.

Trade Grade: B+

In all, this was a great move for the Jazz. Knight has a great personality, and will provide true veteran leadership that the Jazz missed last season. I expect Knight to be excited to play for a winning team again in the Jazz. Hopefully this new additional will lead to a few more road victories this season for the Jazz (its amazing the affect that veteran leadership has over young teams on the road). If the Jazz get 5 more road victories next season, we'll have home court advantage at least until the Western Conference Finals, and I still believe next year the Jazz win it all.

CJ Miles Discussion

2008-07-23T13:06:00.008-06:00

Most of you have probably heard by now that CJ Miles may be on his way out of town. On July 17th, CJ signed an offer sheet with the Oklahoma City (fill in the blank). The contract offers CJ nearly $4M over the next four seasons. The Jazz will be given until the end of this week to make a decision on Miles. Considering the Jazz had given CJ a qualifying offer of approximately $1.5M, it looks unlikely the Jazz will match the OKC offer.

Before addressing what choices the Jazz have, let's examine CJ's years with the Jazz.

CJ was drafted in the second-round of the 2005 NBA draft (same as DWill). CJ never signed with an NBA agent, which meant he could have played his freshman season at the University of Texas where he had signed a letter of intent prior to declaring for the NBA draft. Despite influence from Jazz officials to go to college (for development), CJ chose to follow the money to the NBA.

Most of CJ's rookie season was spent in Idaho playing for the Jazz Affiliate at the time. While in Boise, CJ stood out as a potential star in the NBA. The Stampede Head Coach at the time offered CJ much praise and even predicted CJ would become a star in the NBA one day. During camp, Miles' teammate Carlos Boozer offered similar praise saying that CJ would become a huge star in the NBA. Jerry Sloan and other Jazz coaches were not quite as generous, but still praised CJ's basketball IQ, especially for his age. Mostly due to strength and consistency issues, CJ spent most of his first two seasons in the D'League.

In the 2007-08 season, CJ found a consistent role with the Jazz. CJ became the "utility infielder" (for lack of a better term). In baseball, most teams keep a utility infielder who can play multiple positions, and fill in for normal starters to give them relief on different nights. If any player on the Jazz went down during the season with an injury or illness, CJ usually was the guy to step in. CJ performed well enough that Coach Jerry Sloan didn't even hesitate to place CJ in the starting lineup (so as not to interfere with the normal rotation). Despite being the Jazz "utility infielder", CJ never was able to move up the depth chart into consistent minutes. Other than utility minutes, CJ only played when the Jazz faced foul trouble or when Gordan Giricek annoyed the Jazz coaches enough to stick him on the end of the bench.

CJ played in 61 games last season, averaging 11 minutes per game. In those 11 minutes, CJ averaged 5.0 ppg, and 1.3 rpg. CJ scored a career-high 29 points against the Washington Wizards on 3/31/08. CJ's greatest attribute is his shooting ability, although he possesses very good athleticism and jumping ability.

In Oklahoma City, CJ may be able to play with less pressure than Utah. Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook all have very high ceilings, and CJ may have found a team with which he can spend many many years, and produce at a consistent level.

So, that leaves essentially three scenarios the Jazz can pursue:

#1). Match the OKC offer for 4 years, $15M total. (unlikely)
#2). Let Miles go untouched to a division opponent, and promote Morris Almond to the backup spot previously occupied by Miles.
or
#3). Explore Sign-and-Trade opportunities

As was stated early in this post, it is unlikely the Jazz will be willing to pay CJ as much as Oklahoma City. That means the Jazz are likely to either let CJ walk, or find a sign-and-trade partner. In a sign-and-trade scenario, the Jazz would match the OKC offer, then immediately turn around and trade him to OKC for something in return.

So who could the Jazz look to get in return?

Untouchable:
Kevin Durant (SG)
Jeff Green (SF)
Russell Westbrook (PG)

Available?
Chris Wilcox (PF) - Wilcox is a freakish athlete and an excellent rebounder. He is in the final year of his contract which makes him much more attractive to other teams. It is highly unlikely that OKC would be willing to part with Wilcox.
Nick Collison (PF/C) - Collison is a very nice player who can play either big position. He has struggled with injuries in the past, but still fills a major role with the Sonics. Given the Sonics deficiencies for big men, I wouldn't expect them to part with Collison.
Earl Watson (PG) - With Russell Westbrook and Luke Ridnour on the roster, Watson may be expendable. If the Jazz were to include Jason Hart in the deal, salaries would match fairly close. This is a real possibility for the Jazz.
Donyell Marshall (PF) - Been there, done that.
Damien Wilkins (SG/SF) - A possibility, though unlikely. Why would the Jazz send Miles for Wilkins. Neither player would make a significant impact next season.
Mouhamed Sene (C) - He was raw and long when he entered the draft, and he's still raw and long. Had he been available when the Jazz picked Ronnie Brewer a couple of years ago, he'd probably be a Jazz man right now. We know the Jazz liked him when he was in the draft, but have they seen enough to know he isn't any good? I think so.
Johan Petro (C) - He's long and has good athleticism. He's been a rotation player since entering the NBA. He's not anything extraordinary, but brings some skills that Jarron Collins does not. That said, he may be a nice addition.
Luke Ridnour (PG) - Luke has been a disappointment for a long time in Seattle. He has shown flashed of being a quality guard in the NBA, but too often leaves fans and teammates longing for more. He's in a contract that isn't favorable to the Jazz, and may have better trade value on the open market.

From the list above, I only see the Jazz interested in Johan Petro, Nick Collison, Chris Wilcox, or Earl Watson. Watson could step in and battle for the backup PG position with Ronnie Price, while the other bigs could contribute as a 4th big off the bench. The question is, how much are you willing to pay a guy who may not get more than 10 mins/night?

The other scenario would have the Jazz receive a future 1st round draft pick (protected) in return for Miles.

***UPDATE***
The Jazz have matched the contract offered to CJ Miles and will retain his rights for 3-4 years. The terms of the offer are not verifiable at this time, but will be posted when made known.

Checkpoint

2008-07-22T10:50:00.025-06:00

We're halfway through the Rocky Mountain Revue. As expected, some things become apparent, while some things will remain a question for years to come. Here are some thoughts and analysis on what I've seen from the first 3 days of the Revue.

Utah Jazz:

- Morris Almond - Mo has come to Summer League in shape and with something to prove. Mo has shown an improved effort on the Defensive end of the floor, with a better attitude toward team-offense. Mo has shot the ball well, and scored within the offensive scheme. Most of his points have been somewhat quiet, but consistent. One thing Almond really has going for him is his ability to create shots for himself. The Jazz have a HUGE need for another player who can create for himself when the situation requires. Too often last season, players on the Jazz would give the ball to Deron at midcourt with 10 seconds on the shotclock, and simply expect him to do the rest. DWill is unquestionably worthy of the respect, but a second creator would really add a new dimension to an already stellar Jazz offense. The best teams always have a second creator from the perimeter (Spurs = Parker and Ginobli, Celtics = Pierce and Allen, Lakers = Bryant and Odom). With CJ Miles likely headed toward Oklahoma City, Almond may emerge as a role player this season.

- Kyrylo Fesenko - The new look is very symbolic of the sort of off season Big Fes has demonstrated through the first half of the Revue. Fes is still big as ever, but he has looked completely out of control for every minute he has been on the floor. Offensively he rarely is in the right spot. His low-post offensive game has shown even less creativity than Trent Plaisted (one dribble baseline, turn back to middle, jump hook). The one thing Fes has always had going for him is his ability to block shots and rebound. Unfortunately for jazz fans, neither of these skills looks to have developed much since his first showing in the Revue. Fes has struggled to remain on the floor for any stretches longer than a few minutes. Usually his playing stretches end with the coaches yanking him out in frustration, and sending him to the bench with some colorful words. Unless big Fes improves drastically for the second half of the Revue, he could be in real trouble. Unfortunately, I have seen enough of Fes to make me believe he will never be a real NBA player. I wouldn't be surprised if Fes was left off of this season's roster. The truth about Fes is that he has been outplayed by Koufos, Fuller, and Lyde. The higher likelihood is that the Jazz let him go after next season (when his rookie contract ends). As for this season, hope he enjoys Orem.

- Kosta Koufos - The thing that has initially stood out to me with Kosta is his footwork and work ethic. Koufos seems to have a very good basketball IQ as he plays, while demonstrating good focus and drive. Before anyone chooses to dismiss Koufos as a prospect, it should be noted that he has played the majority of his minutes in the Revue at PF. This seems like a big complement, as Jazz coaches trust him to learn two positions right off the bat. The few instances when Koufos has played at Center he has looked much more comfortable and confident. Offensively, Koufos has shown an excellent first step, with good agility to maneuver his way around the paint. Thus far he hasn't shown the explosiveness and strength necessary to finish around the rim. Kosta can get to the rim, but he's got to learn how to finish better. Koufos' passing ability has also been better than I expected. Defensively Koufos has been OK. It's obvious from the beginning that he won't be the "defensive stopper" the Jazz have been looking for, but he has provided good help defense, and good rebounding ability. Once again, Kosta must get stronger as he was overpowered on multiple occasions near the rim. I'd like to see Kosta matched up more against the opposing center on defense. Thus far, Kosta has spent most of his time on the perimeter chasing smaller Power Forwards. Koufos has shown me enough to expect him as a future rotational player, who will stick in the NBA.

-Britton Johnson - Britton has really played well so far in the Revue. Those who have seen Britton at the Revue the past few years, know that Britton can score in a variety of ways. What I've seen from Britton this year has really impressed me. He's been an excellent defender, a good rebounder, and extremely sound in the fundamentals. Johnson's focus has clearly been on doing the little things necessary to win, which I'm sure the Jazz coaching staff has noticed. It will be interesting to see if he gets an invite to the Jazz camp. With few roster spots available, he is a long shot to make the team. But his skills are definately at a high enough level to make me believe he can play in the NBA once again.

- Kevin Kruger - Kruger has emerged as the best PG on the Jazz roster. Kevin has the immediate advantage of having played for the Flash last season (and this season also), which has allowed him to be more familiar with the offensive philosophy. Kruger has shown better quickness than I anticipated, and a very very good basketball IQ. He has run the team very efficiently, and shot the ball very well when the opportunity was available. It is unknown whether or not Kruger's sprained ankle will allow him to play anymore in the Revue, but he has done enough to earn him an invite to Jazz camp. Jazz coaches (Sloan and Johnson) made a specific point to praise Kruger each time he came out of the game. Kruger may not make the Jazz roster (though I far prefer him to Hart), but I wouldn't be surprised if he got a couple of 10-day contracts this season to come up from the Flash.

- Tyrone Brazelton - Brazelton is a young player that has shown flashes of quality skills. He has shot the ball pretty well, and shown good quickness. The transition at PG from College to the Utah Jazz is extremely difficult, and Brazelton looks to be struggling with this at times. He has enough upside, I'm sure the Jazz will take a long look at whether or not they want to invite him to camp. His progress in practices from the beginning of Summer League to the end of the Revue will be his key point. I expect Brazelton to play in the D-League this year before taking another shot at the NBA next year.

- Yaroslav Korolev - The young Russian has been very streaky. He's still only 20 years old, despite being a lottery pick a couple of years ago. His shot is very good, and he has good length and some athleticism. It's apparent the Jazz are trying to see if he can become a rounded player, and not just a shooter. Because of his youth, he may get a good hard look with the departure of Miles. I expect Korolev to return overseas and have a long, quality career there.

Other Teams:

- George Hill (San Antonio) - Hill has grown quite a bit during his Summer League experience. From Vegas to Utah, he seems to be getting better each outing. Hill is a load on both ends of the court, and I still expect him to battle with former Jazz-man Jacque Vaughn for the backup PG position behind Tony Parker.

- Gerald Green (Dallas) - The veterans in Summer League are so much more comfortable and advanced in the small areas, that they excel in the Summer League. Green has improved his outside shooting each year in the NBA, and will need to continue to work on all aspects of his game to become a rotation player for the Mavs. Green's athleticism is unmatched in this, or any Summer League. It will be interesting to see how Green fits in to Dallas' long-term plans.

- Acie Law IV (Atlanta) - Another veteran who looks to dominate the younger opposition. Law has shown excellent shooting ability and court awareness. The question on Law out of college was whether he could ever transition into a true NBA Point Guard. From what I've seen, he's already there. I expect Law to backup Mike Bibby in Atlanta this year, and replace him when Bibby retires.

- Brook Lopez (New Jersey) - When I walked into the gym and saw Lopez going through warmups, I was immediately taken back by how huge he is. The first thing I thought of was how I may be wrong about my predictions of Lopez being a bust in the NBA. Five minutes into the game, I fell back into my previous predictions. Lopez came out of the gate with a commitment to help defense. That lasted about 1 quarter before Warriors were getting layup after layup as Lopez was late to help. Lopez had finished the game with 3 blocked shots, all of which can be contributed to his massive frame overmatching his smaller summer league competition (the warriors had not centers on their roster). Lopez left his feet WAY too much, and was killed on defense as a result. I never saw Lopez go after a rebound like he really wanted it. At Lopez's size, he should be able to average 5+ boards his rookie season in NJ, but he never gets good rebounding position because he leaves his feet at every shot, and never goes after the boards with a purpose. Offensively Brook got good position on the low-block, but never was able to do much with it. In Lopez's defense, the Warriors were doubling the low post every time the ball went in to any player, not just Lopez. Lopez saw the floor well, but struggled to execute the passes. After a while, Brook got frustrated and went outside to shoot more. Lopez did flash well from off the ball, and demonstrated good IQ on offense. At times Lopez showed clumsy hands. Lopez had a couple of easy baskets when the Nets were already down by 20 in the fourth quarter which made his stats look better than they actually were. Did I mention Lopez was horrendous in transition?

- Sean Williams (New Jersey) - The one year veteran showed exactly what he is advertised as; an athletic defensive big man. While Williams showed very little on offense, he played with awesome energy throughout, and played excellent defense both inside and on the perimeter. The referees didn't help Williams out much, but he definitely outplayed his teammate Lopez.

- Chris Douglas-Roberts (New Jersey) - CDR is not a real "smooth" basketball player. He lacks a fluidity which makes it hard for him to get in rhythm. The Nets were often slowing the game down early to help Lopez get comfortable, but once Lopez went out of the game, CDR led the attack as the Nets pushed the ball hard. Twice the Nets cut the lead down to 5 after both times being extended near 20. CDR ran the floor extremely well, and finished with strength and precision. It will be interesting to see what CDR can do with Devin Harris in the backcourt running the show.

- Jaycee Carroll (New Jersey) - Jaycee is a local kid, but the player I saw for the Nets was not the same player I saw at Utah State. At USU, Carroll ran all day, coming off screens and hitting jumpers. For the Nets, Carroll ran the point much of the night, and played fairly well. Jaycee didn't look real comfortable, but his focus was to distribute and run the team. I'm not sure Jaycee has what it takes to be a PG in the NBA, but he's real close. Carroll can definately shoot the ball, and if he were in the right situation with a bigger PG who can defend a SG, or with SGs and SFs who can help relieve pressure, Jaycee may make an NBA roster. Jaycee is a great kid, and he played more than the veteran Marcus Williams.

- Marcus Williams (New Jersey) - Williams should have been the best PG in the Revue. The effort level and focus Williams showed kept him from achieving that success. Most of the time, Marcus looked like he didn't want to be playing, and his play suffered as a result. Williams looked for his own shot all night, and his team struggled as a result. In stretches, Williams was the best player on the floor. In other stretches, Williams was very mediocre.

- Anthony Randolph (Golden State) - I expected Anthony Randolph to play more like Stromile Swift than he actually does. Randolph was excellent in transition and showed a wide variety of offensive skills I didn't know he had. There is no question Randolph has superior athletic skills, but he doesn't like to spend much time in the painted area. Randolph looked most comfortable on the perimeter with his face to the basket. Randolph showed excellent ball-handling ability, and a good first step. Too often Randolph committed to the rim far too early and left his team in transition trying to prevent an easy basket. Defensively Randolph wanted no part of the game.

The D-League Ambassadors - I think it's safe to say most fans didn't want to watch the Ambassadors play. About 4 minutes into the game, the crowd was in full support of the Ambassadors. They played very hard, with great athleticism, and great energy. As a result, they stayed right in the game. Glen McGowan, Josh Gross and crew played high above the rim, and quickly became fan favorites.

I.R. Iran - The Iranian national team had a strong following of fans all week. The fans appreciated their team, and the team rewarded the fans with whistle to whistle hustle. Mohammad Nikkhah Ba stood out as the teams best perimeter player. Hamed Afagh outplayed Kyrylo Fesenko for every minute he was on the court. Hiram Fuller and Kevin Lyde played with extra energy to outplay Afagh. Unfortunately the Iranian big man went down with a hip/back injury and never did return to the game. Jaber Rouzbahini has been the most promoted of any Iranian player, but did not play all week due to illness. I really wanted to see the 7'5 big man play.

It's been an interesting week at the Rocky Mountain Revue. The play has thus far been somewhat disappointing. With Kruger and Johnson likely missing tonight's game against New Jersey, it will be a real good chance to see where Fesenko, Lopez, Koufos stand in comparison to each other. Also, Marcus Williams, Jaycee Carroll and Chris Douglas-Roberts will be fun to watch against the Jazz backcourt.

Go Jazz!

Note: With about 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter of the Jazz/Iran game, Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor received a phone call to which he promptly responded "I'll call you back from a secure room". After a couple of minutes, O'Connor returned with a private message for Coaches Jerry Sloan and Phil Johnson which brought all of their heads together for a private whisper. After the short huddle, the coaches gave their consent to something, and O'Connor grabbed his director of scouting, and they both pulled multiple binders from their briefcases which they took to a private room for a phone call. Neither returned for the rest of the game. I'm sure these exchanges occur multiple times every day, but it was fun to watch from a few rows away.

Ready for the Revue

2008-07-14T13:10:00.001-06:00

One of the greatest weeks of the year is heading our way...the Rocky Mountain Revue. I can't get enough of it. So here's how I'll do this, I'll start by breaking down the Jazz roster, who to watch, what to expect and so on. From there I'll discuss some of the other teams and what/who to watch.

Utah Jazz: One thing about the Jazz is they reward all players on their summer league rosters with playing time. After all, there are many more leagues scouting the revue than just the NBA. Teams from the NBDL, Europe, South America, etc. will all be on hand to search for players to fill these rosters.

Point Guard - This will be a very interesting battle. The Jazz have 3 true point guards on their roster, all who may be worthy of getting an invite to the official team camp:
Kevin Kruger - Many of us fans from Utah saw Kruger play against BYU and Utah in college. Last season Kruger played for the Utah Flash in the Developmental League. The Flash ran a similar offense to the Jazz in Orem so he may have an advantage early on. Last season for the flash Kruger averaged 13.3 ppg and 7.1 apg while shooting 38.8% from behind the arc. Kruger has a lower ceiling than many players out there, but he is efficient and plays under control; something the Jazz like in their PGs.
Earl Calloway - Calloway had an excellent season last season playing in the D-League. It is somewhat surprising that the Jazz were able to land Calloway on their summer league roster. Just last week Calloway was playing extremely well for the Indiana Pacers summer league team in the Orlando Summer League. Calloway earned second-team all tournament honors after afteraging nearly 5 apg and over 14 ppg. Many expected the Calloway to be offered a contract from the Pacers. It's unclear whether the Calloway's presence on the Jazz for the RMR will change that. Nonetheless, Calloway is an excellent guard and will impress many during the Revue.
Tyrone Brazelton - Brazelton had a very successful collegiate career at Western Kentucky, and most experts had Brazelton projected as a second round draft pick in mock drafts. The draft didn't go Brazelton's way in terms of landing a partially guarranteed contract, but at least this way he gets more options when choosing teams to try out for. The Jazz were said to be very fond of Brazelton leading up to the draft, and I'm sure the jazz strongly considered taking Brazelton with one of their second round picks. Brazelton is an explosive guard, and may have the most potential of any of the point guards on the Jazz summer league roster.

Shooting Guard:
Morris Almond - Many eyes will be on Almond in this year's camp. It would be disappointing if Almond didn't earn first team all tournament honors. Almond's scoring abilities are second to none in this summer league. The Jazz will be watching closely to see if Morris has worked at his defense this summer. The Jazz have generally been quiet in the free agent market until after the Revue. This marks a crucial point in Almond's career. His success in the Revue may mean the departure of CJ Miles. His failure to play within the jazz system during the Revue may cause Almond to have to pack his bags. Don't forget, of the "log jam" at SG for the Jazz, Almond is the oldest of all the young guards.

Small Forward:
Yaroslav Korolev - Not too long ago Korolev was a highly regarded prospect out of Russia. He played overseas for a couple of years and never did quite develop to meet his expectations. Korolev possesses a variety of skills and will play professionally somewhere next season. I'm sure the Development League would love to land Korolev, but he is much more likely to land a large contract overseas. Nonetheless, I expect Korolev to play significant minutes and he very possibly could raise a few eyebrows in the stands and the Jazz front office.
Britton Johnson - We've seen Britton play ever since the 1998 Utah Utes run to the final four. Britton is no longer young enough to be considered a prospect, but Britton's skills have never been in question. Britton is an excellent shooter from the outside, has great length (6'10), is an excellent rebounder, and would love an opportunity to show the Jazz what he can do. The Jazz know Britton can score, but Britton will likely take the opportunity to show Jazz brass that his is willing to fill a role as a defensive specialist that can rebound and hit open shots. An interesting fact about Britton, he is so naturally gifted that he started his first professional game with the Magic. Things didn't work out for Britton then, maybe they'll go better this time with the Jazz after fine tuning his skills overseas for the past couple of years.

Power Forward:
Brian Jackson - Played last year for the Utah Flash, and got an invite to the Jazz summer league team. This is likely more of a move to try and help the Jazz affiliate in Orem than to actually help the Jazz. He's a solid player that doesn't do anything spectacular. It's possible he's a guy the Jazz keep an eye on in case of a midseason injury to Boozer or Millsap.
Hiram Fuller - The big fella has been coming around for years. He always gets significant minutes in the Revue, and seems happy with the way he has been treated. Between Fuller and Jackson, this is where the majority of the minutes at PF will be divided.

Center:
Kosta Koufos - Kosta will have loads of pressure to perform in the Revue. Jazz fans want to know if he can step in and fill a need. The reality is, Koufos is not going to be the defensive specialist most fans wanted for next season. However, Koufos will raise eyebrows with his skills and will seem somewhat redundant in some areas. Koufos was drafted as a prospect, and he is unlikely to find a spot in the rotation for the next couple of seasons. Koufos will surprise many with his shooting range and his overall offensive repertoire. He's an above average rebounder, and will likely have great games and poor games. Look for Koufos to struggle with foul trouble that will take him out of rhythm in about half of the Revue games.
Kyrylo Fesenko - Big Fess comes into the summer with much to prove to Jazz brass. Fess is still a huge body with good athleticism. More than anything, he needs to mature as a person. I expect Fess to step in and lead the Jazz in rebounding in the Revue, while picking up a few dunks and blocked shots on the side. This is a great opportunity for Fess to progress and earn back some of the respect he's lost this offseason through the acquisition of two centers in the draft.
Kevin Lyde - Lyde has come very close to making an NBA roster the past few years. He's struggled with weight in the past but worked very hard last season to get back in shape. If his weight is not under control this summer, I doubt the Jazz give him a look at all. He's a big body at 6'10, 270, and an insurance policy in case Fesenko and Koufos pull up lame during the

San Antonio Spurs:
Ian Mahimni - Mahimni was a first round draft pick a few years back who played overseas before finally coming to the States. He made the Spurs team last year but never broke into the rotation. This year will determine a lot about his future in the league. He's got lots of raw ability.
George Hill - The Spurs snatched Hill with their first round pick in this year's draft. He's a small school guy (IUPUI) with huge upside. He slid in the draft because of his "small school" status, but many teams below the Spurs would have loved to have him on their team. I expect Hill to step in next year as the backup to Tony Parker in a significant role.

New Jersey Nets:
Mo Ager - Ager has played in the Revue for years with the Mavericks, and this year was traded to the Nets. With the departure of Jefferson, Ager could be a role player for a young team with some real talent. He's an athlete with a good outside stroke.
Jaycee Carroll - Carroll has played terrific so far this summer. He played in the Orlando League with the Nets, and also with the Toronto Raptors in the Vegas League. He's averaging double figures, shooting over 50% from behind the ark, and doing the little things to help his team win. The question with Carroll is whether or not he can play the point. Jaycee may be the only player listed here that doesn't make the Nets team. He may get an NBA camp invite, but Jaycee will be a star in Europe.
Julius Hodge -Hodge was a former first round draft pick out of NC State. He's never broken into a solid role with an NBA team, and this may be his last chance. He's always been a heady player. He was a victim of a stabbing before starting his NBA career, and never has seemed to be a major prospect since (whether the stabbing has anything to do with that I don't know).
Sean Williams - Williams will be in an NBA rotation throughout his career. He was considered a lottery talent out of Boston College until he got kicked out of school for drug problems. He seems to have gotten his act together and started many games last year for the Nets. He is the best shot blocker in the tournament, and a guy the Jazz would likely have picked in the first round last year if he had been available.
Chris Douglas-Roberts - A huge talent and first team all-american out of memphis. Roberts finds a way to score, but never really looks pretty doing it. He has an excellent mid-range game and gets to the foul line. Many called him the steal of the draft. I don't know about that, but I do think he will stick in the league.
Ryan Anderson - Thank goodness this guy wasn't available when the Jazz picked. The Jazz worked hard to get him in for a workout but never could. Anderson has some good skills, but I never see him as anything better than a 10th man in the NBA. He should be fun to watch in the Revue though as he possesses good athleticism for a big, and has some good skills.

Golden State Warriors:
Marco Bellineli - Bellineli and Morris Almond were called the best scorers out of last year's draft. Bellineli was expected to earn a starting role with the run and gun warriors last year, but never did break the rotation. With the departure of many guards off the Warriors roster, Marco will be gunning for sure this year. He's a tremendous shooter with good athleticism. He'll be fun to watch because he has one mindset; score.
Anthony Randolph - Might have the highest ceiling of any big out of this year's draft. He's long, athletic and has good skills. He played 1 year at LSU before entering the draft. He had great games and poor games in the Vegas Summer League, and I expect similar from the RMR.
Louis Amundson - Former Jazzman still trying to find a home. He'll be a career 10th-12th man in the NBA. Athletic hard-nosed player who may be looking for the chance to replace Stephen Jackson in the Warriors rotation. Probably not, but good luck to him.
Brandan Wright - Wright was a top 10 pick last year by the Charlotte Bobcats before being sent to GS in the Jason Richardson deal. A tremendous talent out of North Carolina, but he really would have benefited from another year in Chapel Hill.

Dallas Mavericks:
Gerald Green - Green just signed with the Mavericks out of free agency, and hopes to find a long-term home. Green is one of those few athletes in the NBA who will blow your mind with their dunks. Mark him down for one jaw-dropping dunk for every game in this year's Revue. He's also a former slam-dunk contest champion who lost the close battle to Dwight Howard this year. Who will ever forget the cupcake dunk?
Keith McLoed - Former Jazzman. It'll make you sick to see how average he is in the Summer League...and to think he started some games for the Jazz. It makes me sick. Thought I'd mention him.

D-League Ambassadors:
James Lang - He's a guy that came very close to being a Jazz Man. He played for the Flash last year and if he gets his weight down to a better playing weight, he could find a spot on an NBA roster.

FIBA Asia Champion (IRAN):
The Iranian National Team will be headed to the Olympics to play in the bracket opposite of the USA. There has been bad blood of late between Greece and Iran, so let's hope they don't get unnecessarily rough with Koufos (despite him being as American as they come). I guess if they want physical we can always send in our Ukranian man-child (Fesenko). I'm actually very interested to see their different style of basketball.
Jaber Rouzbahani - The 7'5 monster made himself eligible for the 2004 NBA draft but went undrafted. I don't know what to expect from their best player, but I'm expecting the next Pavel Podkolzine. He's only 22 and is said to have solid skills for a big man...and he's very big.

It should be a fun year at the Revue with some new teams and different looks. The Jazz will sell out every night, but I'm also really looking forward to watching the Nets and Warriors. What a great week.

Go Jazz!

Free Agents? Trades?

2008-07-10T10:41:00.002-06:00

Before I get into possible roster moves for the Jazz, I've got to cover the current roster situation of the Jazz.
Current Roster: $64.3M (Cap = $59M)

Deron Williams - $5M (1 yr, likely a 4 yr $70M deal to come soon)
Andrei Kirilenko - $15.1M (3 yrs)
Carlos Boozer - $11.6M (likely to opt out after next season)
Mehmet Okur - $9M (2 yrs)
Matt Harpring - $6M (2 yrs)
Kyle Korver - $4.9M (2 yrs)
Jason Hart - $2.5M (1 yr)
Jarron Collins - $2.1M (1 yr)
Ronnie Brewer - $1,8M (1 yr, team option for 2nd)
CJ Miles - Qualifying offer likely around $1.5M (1 yr)
Ronnie Price - $1.2M (1 yr)
Kosta Koufus - likely around $1.2M (2 yrs, team option for 3rd)
Morris Almond - $1.1M (1 yr, team option for 2nd year)
Kyrylo Fesenko - $810K (1 yr, team option for 2nd)
Paul Millsap - $800K (1 yr)

The Jazz currently have 14 players under contract for next season, with #15 being CJ Miles. The NBA mandates that teams cannot have over 15 players on their roster once the season begins. Considering the Jazz still have their full MLE to use if they choose, that makes 16 players under contract.

The Jazz have always been fairly conservative in their utilization of their roster. They like to keep 14 players on roster (with 1 spot open for midseason flexibility/trades in the event they needed to make a move). The Jazz are also currently about $5M over the salary cap, which means they'll pay about that much in fines to the league. This is not the type of situation the Jazz typically like to be in, but if that's what they have to do to give themselves the best chance to win, Larry Miller has always been willing to spend extra. If the Jazz use their full MLE (up to $6M/year), that would put them $11M over the cap, paying an additional $11M to the league in fines.

Knowing the situation the Jazz face (luxury tax and roster space), here are some possible scenarios we may see from the Jazz this offseason:

1. Don't expect the Jazz to use their full MLE on a free agent this offseason. If the Jazz do sign a free agent, it is much more likely to use a portion of their MLE ($2-$3M) to get their guy.
2. Sign-and-Trade - The Jazz have openly admitted to exploring sign-and-trade options. This would allow the Jazz to go after higher quality free agents (if they have their eye on someone, restricted or unrestricted) without having immediate money open and available for use.
3. Packaging prospects for an upgrade. The Jazz have loads of depth on their roster, more than they can use. We all know about the log-jam at the SG position, and now we're getting a nice crop of prospects at Center also. Package young prospects with veteran contracts and the Jazz could get a nice piece in return.
4. Don't expect the Jazz to move Boozer. People bash Boozer for his move out of Cleveland. What people fail to mention is how the Cavaliers first tried to convince Boozer to sign for well below market value. Once Boozer was on the market (verbal agreement or not), he found out they were shorting him millions of dollars. Then, the Cavs had every chance to sign him for market value and they chose not to. How would you feel as an employee if your employer tried to convince you that you were only worth $50K/year, then when you hit the market you had multiple offers near $100K/year, and your boss refused to match any of them? Even thought the dollar amounts are greater in Boozer's case, the concept is the same. He came to Utah because they genuinely showed interest in him at fair market price, while Cleveland had slapped him in the face. It's a certainty that Boozer will opt out of his contract next season (not because he wants out, but because he can get a 70% pay raise). It is highly unlikely he will bolt for greener pastures when in reality the pastures are more of a yellowish-brown. The Jazz maintain the sole capability to pay Boozer the most money, and he will find nowhere as capable of winning an NBA championship than Utah.
5. Last and MOST IMPORTANT, don't expect the Jazz to make a move simply for the sake of making a move. The Jazz preach team basketball, and with a team full of young players still on the upswing, the longer these players can play together, the better the team will be as a whole. Changing pieces only delays this process.

Using those 5 pieces of criteria, let's take a look at what the Jazz might look to accomplish via free agency and trade. (In no particular order)

FREE AGENTS TO WATCH:

- Keyon Dooling (PG) - The Jazz are frequently mentioned in the same sentence as Dooling. Dooling is about 6'3 which gives him the length to be a bigger PG in the NBA. Last season the Jazz were below average at backup PG. With PG being the most important position in the Jazz system, the offense often came to a screeching halt when DWill exited the game. Now I love Ronnie Price's effort and defense as much as the next man, but his 1 moment of greatness over 5 plays makes many fans forget about the 4 poor possessions he just had. Backup PG is an immediate issue that must be addressed for the Jazz to win a championship. Dooling controls the ball well (nearly 2.5/1 assist-to-turnover ratio), and shoots a good percentage from everywhere on the floor (FG=47%, 3PT=34%). He has enough length to be a factor on defense also. He has played a little combo guard in the past, but would be unlikely to warrant many minutes ahead of our current SGs. Dooling might be had at about half of the MLE ($3-$4M/year).

- Kwame Brown (C) - If Brown goes 10 picks lower in the NBA draft at #11, his entire career could be different. The pressure and expectations of being a #1 overall pick weighed heavily on Brown early in his career. While playing for the Lakers, Brown found a significant role and performed well at times. Though questionable as a starter, Brown would be excellent as a backup. He was used as the primary piece for the Lakers to get Pau Gasol. Brown is a legitimate 7 footer with awesome length and good athleticism. Brown is a phenomenal rebounder averaging nearly 1 rebound for every 3 minutes on the floor. That number is right in the same ballpark as Tim Duncan, Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett. Offensively Brown lives around the basket getting most of his points on put backs and dunks. Brown is also one of the worst free throw shooters in the league shooting nearly 40% from the line. His FT% has dropped almost every year in the league which may be worrisome. I believe Brown could step into the backup center position for the Jazz and average 4 ppg, 4rpg, and 1bpg in about 12-15 mins. Brown may be had in the upper range of the MLE ($4-$5M/year) but is not worth the full MLE.

- Eduardo Najera (F) - Najera is annoying as hell to play against, but he would be great to have on your team. He plays extremely hard and extremely physical. He rebounds well and is an extraordinary defender. He's happy with any role as long as the team wins. He can come off the bench and instantly guard the other team's best player at any 1 of 3 positions. Considering the current status of defense of our bench (Harpring next to Korver) Najera would instantly have a role as a Sloan favorite off the bench. Offensively Najera is limited yet efficient. The best part about Najera is that no matter when you need him to enter a game, you can count on him to play hard and play within the system. Najera could be had in the middle range of the MLE ($3-$4M/year).

PLAYERS THAT MAY BE ON THE WAY OUT:

- CJ Miles - Jazz fans have seen flashes of brilliance from Miles (Coaches more than fans) enough to keep him around year after year, waiting on him to develop. He is still the youngest of all Jazz SG's, and has as much athleticism as any. Miles can fly athletically (sometimes he gets ripped for being a 2-footed jumper, but in the rare occasions where Miles attacks the hoop, he looks to dunk, and he goes off 1 foot). Miles is finally ready for a role as a regular rotation player in the NBA. Miles has been valuable to the Jazz with his versatility as he has been able to step in for an injured player at both SG and SF, filling whatever role necessary to keep the rotation constant (starter, backup, etc.). Miles will look for an opportunity to showcase his ability and land a bigger contract in future years.

- Matt Harpring - If it were up to Jerry Sloan, Harpring would be a Jazz man the rest of his life. However, Harpring's best years are behind him, and he may have his best trade value that he has ever had in the coming season or the one following. Harpring brings an element of toughness and physicality that was badly missed after the departure of Derek Fisher. Offensively he lives at the elbow, and was very ineffective. Once the playoffs began, opponents took away his 1 weapon (the fall-away jumper from the elbow) and Harpring instantly became very ineffective on offense. The time may be right to package Harpring's contract with a young prospect in order to upgrade.

- Paul Millsap - I hate to say this as I love Millsap as a player, but he may be the only player on the Jazz that might warrant a big-time contributor in return, and not completely ruin the chemistry of the team. With Boozer, Kirilenko and Okur all capable of playing SF, Millsap's minutes could be absorbed with minimal loss in stats (his hustle may be irreplaceable). The Jazz may be unable to pay him enough to keep him around next season also. If the Jazz could get a premiere defensive big man to come off the bench, Millsap might have to be the piece included to make the deal happen. I sure hope Millsap stays in Utah. He may be kept as an insurance to Boozer. If he could learn to play some SF, it could really help his long-term status on the team.

- Jason Hart - The Jazz may simply buy out Hart's contract. The only factor keeping Hart in Utah is the fact that the Jazz like to keep 3 PGs on their roster. If the Jazz sign Dooling, kiss Hart goodbye. Hart picked up his player option for this season at $2.5M. The Jazz may be able to buy him out for about $1.5M, which would save the jazz $1M in wasted salary, and another $2.5M in salary cap space. The real price of keeping Hart would be about $5M next year when salary cap is included. That's a lot for a got who's not expected to touch the floor. If the Jazz can possibly move him, they will. If not, they wasted $5M.

- Dee Brown - The guy that couldn't make an NBA roster last season and played in Europe? Yep, that's the guy. The I'm sure you're wondering what the heck I'm talking about...Dee Brown? The Jazz actually still own partial rights to Dee Brown and he just signed a restricted 2-year contract with the Washington Wizards. Don't be surprised if the Jazz swoop in and capitalize on the interest with a sign-and-trade type deal including Brown. The Jazz have been rumored to be interested in Brendan Haywood, but Etan Thomas is likely the more available. Both are defensive centers who could contribute off the bench. Haywood is much longer and more athletic. Thomas is coming off of heart problems and could be had for a low price...as low as Brown? Possible deals could include Dee Brown, Jason Hart and a 2nd round pick for Etan Thomas or Dee Brown and CJ Miles for a future first round (protected) pick. If the Jazz were to make a run at Haywood, it would have to include a bigger piece, perhaps something like Brown, Hart and Millsap for Haywood and a future pick. Jarron Collins could be thrown into any of these deals to make the money work. Either Thomas or Haywood would greatly help the interior defense of the Jazz, and the timing may be perfect for a swap.

It should be an interesting couple of weeks leading up to the Olympics. DWill should be signed to a long-term deal. The Rocky Mountain Revue will give us a good idea whether or not Morris Almond is in the long-term plans of the Jazz, and I expect at least 1 new face to be added to the Jazz roster. Should be fun!

Draft Time!

2008-07-08T11:13:00.002-06:00

There's no sense in beating around the bush with introductions, let's get right to the Jazz offseason!

The Draft:

It is obvious the Jazz entered this year's draft with a plan. With a roster full of young talent (13 players under contract for next season, throw in CJ Miles and you've got 14) and 3 picks in this year's draft (#23, #44 and #53), there simply isn't much wiggle room for the Jazz to take risks with. The NBA requires all teams to trim their rosters to a 15 players by the start of the season. If there are additional players under contract, then a financial agreement must be made between players and teams. Here are my thoughts on what the draft had to offer us fans.

1. The demand for backup help may be at an all time high. It was interesting for me to watch the draft unfold. Early on, young guards went shooting off the board. I was never too sold on this year's crop of combo guards. Players like Jarryd Bayless and Eric Gordon remind me of Rashad McCants out of college. McCants was a spectacular player who seemed to make every big shot for unquestionably the most talented college team in America (UNC). At 6'4 he was considered a combo guard who could get his shot off against anyone. Well, as the years unfold, we now see him as a solid spot up shooter who is too undersized to ever be anything better than a rotational player on a poor team. On many playoff teams he may never leave the bench. Gordon and Bayless are cut from this same mold, and I expect similar struggles from them at the next level.

2. The Jazz were clearly targeting a big at #23. With a guaranteed contract at stake, you can bet your money the Jazz explored all options of moving the pick. With many combo guards going early in the draft, once the double digit picks rolled around, big men started going quick. It could reasonably be argued that this year's draft was much deeper in terms of big men than guards, yet guards stole the attention early on. The big men that went before the Jazz pick in the draft were as follows (in order of pick):

Michael Beasley (PF) - Beasley will be an instant star in the NBA, and you can punch his ticket to the All-Star game in 2010. Expect immediate impact, and instant scoring to what has been a terrible front court in Miami.
Kevin Love (PF/C) - Love is intriguing yet worrisome as an NBA prospect. You have to love his skills offensively, and he is a very good defender. His slower feet and frame does not create an intimidating presence around the hoop on either end, but his basketball IQ is through the roof and I expect him to make up for deficiencies and contribute immediately in Minnesota as an upgrade offensively over Craig Smith, and an upgrade defensively over Al Harrington.
Brook Lopez (C) - I really don't like Brook Lopez as a prospect. Sure he has some talent offensively, but I still wouldn't put him in the same category offensively as a Marreese Speights or JJ Hickson who both went significantly lower than Lopez. He will be a below average defender at the next level and will be a terrible rebounder. I challenge anyone to find a championship team in the past 20 years that have not been able to rebound the basketball. In his first Summer League game he played 20 minutes, scored 10 points on 50% shooting and had zero rebounds.
Jason Thompson (PF) - Thompson is an intriguing prospect because he has the potential to be a steal. The Kings wanted to go big, and Thompson is a gamble who could pay off. Unfortunately for the Kings, gambling will bite you in the end, and I expect Thompson to be struggling to find a role on an NBA team throughout his career.
Anthony Randolph (PF) - Randolph may arguably have the most upside of any big man in the draft. Don Nelson has never been an easy coach to play for as a young NBA player, and I don't expect him to change for Randolph. He'll play minimally in his first couple of years and develop into a player similar to Hakim Warrick or Stromile Swift.
Robin Lopez (C) - The less heralded second Lopez twin. A good comparison for Robin Lopez might be Jarron Collins, while his brother might be a Jason Collins. Both 7'0 twins, both Stanford grads, etc. In Jarron's defense, he has made a comfortable living as a career 12th man. He's valuable as a 3rd center who can defend some and rebound, but never effective enough to warrant anything more.
Marreese Speights (PF) - Speights is the type of player that could find a role as instant offense off the bench. In order to make it in the NBA as a role player, you have to have either one very advanced skill, or you must have a high level of all skills. Speights will find his way into the rotation as a Malik Rose type player that can keep the offense moving while the big scorers take a rest. If the Sixers land Brand, it would be an ideal situation for Speights to come off the bench to relieve Brand. He's got the skills to develop offensively, he just needs the right situation.
Roy Hibbert (C) - Hibbert is about as NBA ready as any big in the draft. At 7'2, with a good basketball IQ, a good motor, and good skills he will find his place instantly in an NBA rotation. While he will never be an NBA all-star, he will contribute for many years. Too many teams get caught up on how high a player's ceiling is. At pick #17, Hibbert's a guy who can contribute right away, improve your team, and perhaps serve as an asset to land you an all-star in the future. I expect Hibbert to stay a few years in Toronto, then get packaged in a deal that will bring Chris Bosh a more explosive sidekick.
JaVale McGee (C) - Where to start? McGee comes from good Pedigree and measures well physically. That's about all the positives I want to give McGee. McGee never dominated in college in a very poor conference with no bigs to go against. His motor is terrible and he never appears to have the desire to get better or the desire to learn. McGee will finish his rookie contract and continue his career over seas.
JJ Hickson (PF) - Hickson is a legitimate scorer on the low block. He's athletic, with a nice shooting touch, and a good body that can handle contact. He's not as big as Speights, but may find a similar role in the NBA. The key with Hickson will be finding a situation where he can flourish. Cleveland may not be the best fit, but I think he'll play enough to get himself a second contract in the league. Once he gets a second contract, he may find a role of 15-20 minutes a night.
Alexis Ajinca (C) - Ajinca is a player that really catches your eye when you see him. He's long, athletic, and possesses good basketball skills that are manifest in drills. He's never played against high level competition, so teams saw him as a high risk-high reward type of player. That much is true. I don't see how a guy that averaged nearly 5 & 3 in a bad league got drafted in the first round. If Ajinca was in college in the US right now, he would have averaged 5 points and 3 rebounds in the WAC. Yet he earned a first round draft pick. At least he can stay overseas if he chooses, but I never see him touching an NBA court.
Ryan Anderson (PF) - The best case scenario for Anderson would be a borderline rotation player. Maybe New Jersey sees more than I do, but I'm sure glad he wasn't on the board when the Jazz picked. I know the Jazz were working hard to bring him in for a workout, but never could make it happen. Thank goodness he wasn't on the board when we picked.

This brings us to the Jazz picks.

Kosta Koufos (C) Fr, Ohio State - We knew the Jazz were looking to go big, so it was no surprise here. The only surprise was that Koufos was still on the board. Don't be fooled by the European name, Koufos is American and plays that way. He is a legitimate prospect, with great size/length, and excellent skills. He played only 1 year of college basketball before going to the draft, and is one of the youngest players in the draft. In terms of ceilings, Koufos exceeds all the bigs listed above except Beasley, Love and perhaps Randolph. He is much closer to being NBA-ready than Randolph however. Don't expect too much from Koufos early in his career. The Jazz have a solid rotation in their front court with a 3-man wheel of Millsap, Okur and Boozer. There aren't many minutes available after them (barring injury or foul trouble). Koufos will struggle in his rookie season to pass Collins for the backup center position, simply because the Jazz will look to develop him through practice and the D-League where he can keep his confidence high, while playing major minutes. I expect Koufos to be a borderline NBA starter, who will be a career rotational player. A good comparison would be somewhere between Nenad Krstic, Big Z Illgauskas (in terms of skills) and Chris Kaman (rebounding and a banger).

Ante Tomic (C) Croatia - With the Jazz opting not to trade their first round pick, that puts the roster at 15 players. It would be highly unlikely any second round draft pick would make the team this year unless there were trades made to free up roster space. The Jazz knew this and had a plan which they followed perfectly. Tomic is a young big man that can stay overseas and develop. In terms of skills, he is ready right now to play in the NBA, and pick up some minutes against certain opponents. However, he only weighs 225 lbs. Until he develops a body, he will get killed in the NBA. Offensively he is spectacular with the ball in his hands. He runs the floor well and plays team basketball. We have all heard the stories about him developing as a guard before growing to 7'1. He does however lack the explosion necessary to be a factor inside. Defensively he will be overpowered and will never be a good shot blocker off of the floor. His length will help him as he develops however. My expectation for Tomic is to be a 10-12th man in the NBA, who will play against certain teams and sit against others.

Tadija Dragicevic (SF) Serbia - This is the mystery man. All we know about Tadija is that he is considered a prospect with good upside, he won the MVP of his league he plays in now, and he will stay overseas for a couple more years. Considering what the Jazz roster may look like in 2 years (no AK, no Harpring), he may have a chance to fill a role at some point with the Jazz.

3. My final thought on the draft was interesting redirected to last year's draft when the Jazz selected Kyrylo Fesenko. We all heard the excitement from the Jazz and how this kid may have been a lottery pick this year had he waited and got more publicity. We saw flashes of Big Fess this season that have generated similar excitement in many Jazz fans (myself included). Prior to the draft, the question was "will the player the Jazz draft be better able to help the Jazz in the coming years that Fesenko?" In the case of Hibbert or Koufus, yes they will. Any of the others I would have said no. We as fans have never been led to believe anything different from Jazz brass regarding Fesenko. So why did the Jazz draft 2 YOUNG centers, both the same age as Fesenko, that are considered prospects?

Sure, there is the argument that the Jazz went after the "best player available", which may be true. But we knew all along that the Jazz were looking big from the beginning. The Jazz now have the rights to 3 project centers, all the same age.

I guess the Jazz are not as high on Fesenko as we all thought. Perhaps his immature nature has rubbed coaches the wrong way? Perhaps Jazz brass do not believe that Fesenko has the motor to develop into a great player? Whichever the case may be, we can no longer assume the Jazz are confident Fesenko will be a contributor any time in the near or distant future.